Tony Sanchez
Rumors

As we narrow in on draft day, June 7th, 2010, the rumors surrounding players and teams are becoming more specific.  Jason Churchill of espn.com recently ran down some of the rumors that have been swirling recently.

• After months of speculation that the Pirates would go safe with their draft pick and take a college player, the rumors now are that they are considering Manny Machado or Jameson Taillon.  Nevertheless, the Pirates would still have to pay a large signing bonus to either player, a route they avoided last year in selecting Tony Sanchez with the fourth overall pick.  If they pass on Machado and Taillon, they could look to a college bat like Zack Cox or Michael Choice or go with a second-tier high school pitcher like Dylan Covey, AJ Cole, or Karsten Whitson.

• Baltimore will likely take whichever player, Machado or Taillon, that Pittsburgh does not.  If Pittsburgh passes on both, Baltimore seems more likely to take Machado. 

• Kansas City at #4 and Cleveland at #5 have not been linked to Machado or Taillon because both clubs seem to be looking at lower-profile talents like Chris Sale or Yasmani Grandal.

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The 2005 draft had Justin Upton, Alex Gordon, Ryan Zimmerman, Ryan Braun and Troy Tulowitzki among others.

The 2008 draft had Pedro Alvarez, Brian Matusz, Buster Posey, Gordon Beckham and Justin Smoak among others.

The 2010 draft has, well, Bryce Harper.

That's not to say there are not other worthwhile players available to draft and draft high, but the 2010 class simply doesn't have the star power at the top or the depth at the back of the class the way previous classes have. 

Does this year's draft class lack of depth impact the way teams approach the draft?  Perhaps take players much higher than they should go in order to save money, a la the Pirates and Tony Sanchez in last year's draft? 

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When word leaked of a pre-draft deal between the Pirates and catcher Tony Sanchez the reason became very clear: Sanchez would agree to a contract for much less than more highly rated played.  The Orioles followed suit (although not as drastically) with Matt Hobgood, likely for the same signability reason that the Pirates did.

Often the players who command larger signing bonuses are high school players because they have the leverage to go to college instead of playing and re-enter the draft three years later.  In order to get them out of their collegiate commitment, teams need to be willing to open up their check book.

So what players could be drafted higher than their ranked this year?  As Jason Churchill of espn.com writes, there are a lot of talented high school pitchers this year would could command a lot of money.  If teams do not want to pay them, who could move up to fill their draft slot?

Dylan Covey, Jameson Taillon, Karsten Whitson and AJ Cole are all Top 10 talent and as such will demand Top 10 pay days.  Aaron Sanchez, Kevin Gausman and Tyrell Jenkins are three pitchers who are ranked significantly lower than the aforementioned quartet of pitchers, but still considered first round talent.  Teams may feel that the gap between someone like Gausman and a Taillon isn't great enough to pay the higher regarded pitcher the addition money he'll demand. 

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While there are a number of questions teams must determine answers for themselves, there are also those questions that we, the fans, want to know the answers to.  Why is one player chosen over another?  What player will a team take in their draft position?  When will the MLB draft be aired on ESPN like the NFL draft (hey, we can dream)?

Jason Churchill of espn.com posed five questions about the upcoming June draft and his best guess at their answer.

Why would the Royals take Chris Sale or Yasmani Grandal with the fourth pick?

It is not that Sale or Grandal are not good players, they're just not considered Top 5 talent by most anyone.  So why would the Royals reach for a player like Sale or Grandal?  First off, unlike football or basketball, teams' ranking of players often has much more variation to it.  Sale and Grandal could easily be close to Top 5 talent for the Royals. 

What's far more likely, however, is that the decision is financial - much like Pittsburgh with Tony Sanchez last year.  Sale and Grandal could sign for $2.5M while a higher rated prospect like Karsten Whitson could cost in excess of $4M.

If Kansas City passes on Grandal, where will the second best catcher in the draft be picked?

It has been well documented that Bryce Harper is the top catcher (and player) in the draft, but Grandal has quietly established himself as the second best catcher.  The Indians (#5) seem set on Michael Choice (provided he makes it to them), Arizona (#6) and Houston (#8) have positional depth at catcher in their system and the Mets (#9) have not been rumored to be interested in Grandal.

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Last year, the Pittsburgh Pirates surprised everyone by selecting Tony Sanchez with the fourth overall pick, much higher than where most experts ranked him before the draft.

What made the selection even more interesting were reports that the selection was based on a pre-draft deal with the Boston College stand out.  Sanchez agreed to sign a reasonable for the #4 pick in exchange for probably more money than he would have received if he had been drafted towards the end of the first round.  After the prolonged contract negotiations with Pedro Alvarez after the 2008 draft, the Pirates were happy to lock up their pick early and save money on what a #4 pick is typically commanding.

There's already plenty of talk for the 2010 draft regarding pre-draft deals with a number of college players.  Some names being mentioned already, writes Jason Churchill of espn.com, include Arkansas's Zack Cox, Middle Tennessee State's Bryce Brentz, Georgia Tech's Deck McGuire and Ohio State's Alex Wimmers.

Developments such as these are very interesting because if the players are taken in the Top 15 picks it'll push some of the best talent in the draft (likely high school pitchers) down to the lower drafting teams.  For a player like McGuire, who's already being considered in the Top 10 if not Top 5 of the draft, a pre-draft deal could drastically change where talented players are selected.

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The August 17th deadline to sign plays from the 2009 MLB Draft is fast approaching. We'll use this page to update the signing status of all the first round picks.

The deadline for players to sign is August 17, 2009

1. Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals - Despite speculation that he would not signed, agreed to a $15M contract. (updated 8/17/09)
2. Dustin Ackley, Seattle Mariners - Agreed to a $7.5M signing bonus. (updated 8/17/09)
3. Donovan Tate, San Diego Padres - Instead of going back to UNC to play football, signed a contract with a 6.25M signing bonus (updated 8/17/09)
4. Tony Sanchez, Pittsburgh Pirates - Signed a well-publicized contract before the draft
5. Matt Hobgood, Baltimore Orioles - Signed a contract
6. Zach Wheeler, San Francisco Giant - Signed for $3.3M (updated 8/17/09)
7. Mike Minor, Atlanta Braves - Signed a contract with a record $2.42M signing bonus (updated 8/8/09)
8. Mike Leake, Cincinnati Reds - Agreed to a $2.2M contract (updated 8/15/09)
9. Jacob Turner, Detroit Tigers - Received a Rick Porcello-like signing bonus of $5.5M (updated 8/17/09)
10. Drew Storen, Washington Nationals - Signed a contract
11. Tyler Matzek, Colorado Rockies - Rumors were that it would take a lot of money to keep Matzek away from Oregon: signed for $3.3M (updated 8/17/09)
12. Aaron Crow, Kansas City Royals - Agreed to a $3M contract with the Royals (updated 9/21/09)
13. Grant Green, Oakland As - Agreed to a $2.75M signing bonus (updated 8/15/09)
14. Matt Purke, Texas Rangers - Decided to go to college instead of signing with the Rangers (updated 8/17/09)
15. Alex White, Cleveland Indians - Got a bit less than Minor, $2.25M signing bonus (updated 8/17/09)
16. Bobby Borchering, Arizona Diamondbacks - Agreed to a contract with a $1.8M signing bonus (updated 8/15/09)
17. AJ Pollock, Arizona Diamondbacks - Signed a contract
18. Chad James, Florida Marlins - Agreed to a $1.7M contract (updated 8/15/09)
19. Shelby Miller, St. Louis Cardinals - Inked a $2.875M signing bonus (updated 8/17/09).
20. Chad Jenkins, Toronto Blue Jays - Signed for $1.359M (updated 8/15/09)
21. Jiovanni Mier, Houston Astros - Signed a contract
22. Kyle Gibson, Minnesota Twins - Signed a $1.8M contract (updated 8/17/09)
23. Jared Mitchell, Chicago White Sox -Signed a contract
24. Randal Grichuk, Los Angeles Angels -Signed a contract
25. Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels - Signed a contract
26. Eric Arnett, Milwaukee Brewers - Signed a contract
27. Nick Franklin, Seattle Mariners - Signed for $1.28M (updated 8/15/09)
28. Reymond Fuentes, Boston Red Sox - Signed a contract
29. Slade Heathcott, New York Yankees - Agreed to a $2.2M signing bonus (updated 8/17/09)
30. LeVon Washington, Tampa Bay Rays - Ultimately did not sign with the Rays (updated 8/17/09)
31. Brett Jackson, Chicago Cubs - Signed a contract
32. Tim Wheeler, Colorado Rockies - Signed a contract

Jason Churchill of espn.com has a signings update from the 2009 MLB Draft class.

For an update on the status of first round draft picks, click here.

• Only three of the top ten picks have signed: Tony Sanchez - #4 with Pittsburgh, Matt Hobgood - #5 with Baltimore and Drew Storen - #10 with Washington.
• Scott Boras represents six of the top ten picks and will likely take all of them to the Aug 17 deadline. Negotiations with the #1 pick Stephen Strasburg (Washington), #2 pick Dustin Ackley (Mariners) and #3 pick Donovan Tate (Padres) have not progressed very far and all three are Boras clients.
• The #11 pick, Tyler Matzek, still has not signed with Colorado and is inching closer to going to college at Oregon. A report form the Denver Post indicates that the sides are still not close on any agreement. Matzek has also been told he can play the field while not pitching at Oregon, something he would not be able to do in the Rockies system, for the moment anyway.
• Matt Purke could be another high school pitcher who, along with Matzek, could go to college instead of signing. The #14 pick overall by the Texas Rangers, Purke has very high signing demands and with their recent financial trouble, the Rangers might not be able to accomodate.
• Mike Minor, the #7 pick, and the Braves are making progress towards signing a contract.
• When Minor signs, that will be the first domino to fall for the rest of the college pitchers drafted beneath him. The Reds (#8 Mike Leake), Royals (#12 Aaron Crow) and Indians (#15 Alex White) are all waiting to see what Minor signs for before finalizing deals with their players.
• There is word at the bottom of this Keith Law posting that Wil Myers is close to signing for $2M (despite being a fourth round draft pick) with the Royals.

Jason Churchill of espn.com has an update on the 2009 MLB Draftees who have signed with their clubs and started their professional careers already.

For an update on the status of first round draft picks, click here.

• Tony Sanchez, #4 overall pick by the Pittsburgh Pirates, has hit .328/.427/.469 so far.
• Tyler Matzek, #11 overall to the Colorado Rockies, has not signed yet and has been working out with his college commitment, Oregon, where he's playing the field and hitting when he's not pitching.
• However, the Rockies have signed their other top picks: Tim Wheeler (#32 overall), Rex Brothers (#34 overall), Nolan Arenado (second round), Ben Paulson (third round), Kent Matthes (fourth round).
• Any talk of Nationals draft pick Drew Storen (#10 overall) being a starter seem to be just that: talk. While getting promoted through the single A ranks, Storen has pitched exclusively in relief.
• The Diamondbacks first round pick, AJ Pollock (#16 overall) has struggled so far.
• Jiovanni Mier (#21 to the Astros) his hit the ball very well so far: .303/.394/.483 with two home runs, two doubles, four triples and four stolen bases in 23 games.
• Mike Trout, #25 overall to the Los Angeles Angels, has crushed the Arizona Rookie League hitting .395/.489/.579 in 10 games. One opposing player said about Trout, "He looks like a big leaguer down here on rehab, spraying the ball everywhere and beating out a routine ground ball to second base."

Earlier we posted Keith Law of espn.com's review of Day One of the 2009 MLB Draft. Let's check in on his thoughts about Day Two.

Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates opened eyes with their controversial pre-draft deal for Tony Sanchez and then took him with the #4 pick of the draft, well ahead of several better talents according to most evaluators. Their approach to the draft was not to spend a lot of money in Round 1, but perhaps splurge a little bit in the later rounds on some talent with higher salary demands than might be normally seen in the later rounds. The Pirates added Jordan Cooper, Zach Van Rosenberg, Colton Cain and Trent Stevenson - all players who feel because of signability concerns.

Oakland Athletics

Hopefully the As are prepared to spend some money on their amateur draft because they grabbed guys who have potential signing issues. Their second round pick was Max Stassi who fell because of the perception that he'll require over draft slot money. The grabbed Ian Krol who was booted from his high school team for some off the field issues and is committed to Arizona and will take some money to wrestle free. Last, but not least, their first round pick was Grant Green who is represented by Scott Boras.

Tampa Bay Rays

Injury questions are a theme of the Rays draft. They grabbed a potential first round pick, Luke Bailey, who fell to them because of Tommy John surgery earlier in the year. Their 10th round pick, Derek Dennis, is kind of an unknown because of how late he blossomed.

Los Angeles Angels

We'll let Keith Law handle this one perfectly "The Angels' draft was all over the place, with toolsy prep bats, big college arms with bad command and some projectable high school arms"

Atlanta Braves

For whatever reason, the Braves have seemingly changed their draft philosophy from an upside-high school based approach to a more conservative college-based one. Their first pick was Mike Minor who, while solid, doesn't project to have much upside. All in all, they didn't take a high schooler until the 10th round. Perhaps they were not interested in the financial commitment high schoolers often require.

Keith Law of espn.com provided a reaction to the draft picks from Day 1 of the 2009 MLB Draft. For Day 2 analysis, click here.

Best picks of the first round

• Tyler Matzek, Colorado Rockies, #11 overall: He slid because of signability concerns and the Rockies benefited.
• Shelby Miller, St. Louis Cardinals, #19 overall: Like Matzek, he fell because of contract demands.
• Kyle Gibson, Minnesota Twins, #20 overall: The stress fracture in Gibson's throwing arm scared many teams off, but so long as it heals, the Twins got a steal.

Worst picks of the first round

• Tony Sanchez, Pittsburgh Pirates, #4 overall: It's not that Sanchez is not a first round player, but the Pirates reached too high at #4. The reason was a pre-draft deal that saved the Pirates some money, but they passed on too much talent.
• Randal Grichuk, Los Angeles Angles, #24 overall: Not even in Law's Top 100
• Nick Franklin, Seattle Mariners, #27 overall: Franklin does not have much upside along with below average power and mediocre defense at best.

More Thoughts

• Law liked the Diamondbacks draft of Bobby Borchering and AJ Pollock in the first round and Matt Davidson, Chris Owings and Mike Belifore in the second and third rounds.
• The Cubs took low stat, high upside athletic guys Brett Jackson and DJ LeMahieu.
• Rex Brothers was a steal for the Rockies at #34.