Tampa Bay Rays Rumors

Recently, a number of respected baseball media outlets have released their respective lists of the top number of prospects heading into the 2010 season.  These lists include Keith Law of espn.com's Top 100, Jonathan Mayo's collection of top prospects starting with Scouting the Sally's Top 30, Oriolesprospects.com Top 20, Propects Paradise's Top 30, Camden Crazies Top 25, Dave Barr's Hot Corner Top 20, Prospect Junkie's Top 20, The Cardinal Nation's Top 40, Seth Stohs from sethspeaks.net's Top 20, and Mayo's Top 50.

Obviously this all represents opinion, but to get a better idea of the overall feel of the group Baseball Rumor Mill averaged the Top 20 rankings from all of the lists to come up with an aggregate ranking of the Top 20 prospects heading into 2010. 

The rankings were tabulated only evaluating the Top 20 of each list and a point value was assigned to each rank.  #1 = 20 points, #2 = 19 points, so on down to #20 = 1 point.  If a player was not listed in the Top 20 a NR indication was given and no points were awarded.  The rankings are based on aggregate point totals, though we also did an evaluation of point totals after dropping the highest ranking and lowest ranking.  For instance, Desmond Jennings finished fifth overall in aggregate, but would be tied for 3rd with Buster Posey after dropping each player's highest and lowest ranking.

To view the raw data, click here.

Not surprisingly, Jason Heyward and Stephen Strasburg were significantly ahead of the field at the #1 and #2 spot, respectively.  There seems to be a considerable drop in consensus after either Dustin Ackley at #12 or Madison Bumgarner at #13.  Only ten players received Top 20 votes in all ten rankings.

Without further ado, the aggregate rankings

1. Jason Heyward, OF Atlanta
2. Stephen Strasburg, P Washington
3. Buster Posey, C San Francisco
4. Brian Matsuz, P Baltimore
5. Desmond Jennings, OF Tampa Bay
6. Carlos Santana, C Cleveland
7. Jesus Montero, C New York Yankees
8. Neftali Feliz, P Texas
9. Mike Stanton, OF Florida
10. Pedro Alvarez, 3B Pittsburgh
11. Justin Smoak, 1B Texas
12. Dustin Ackley, OF Seattle
13. Madison Bumgarner, P San Francisco
14. Aroldis Chapman, P Cincinnati
15. Domonic Brown, OF Philadelphia
16. Jeremy Hellickson, P Tampa Bay
17. Martin Perez, P Texas
18. Alcides Escobar, SS Brewers
19. Wade Davis, P Tampa Bay
20. Chris Carter, 1B Oakland

Less than a year after being the #1 draft pick, Strasburg rates as the #2 prospect in baseball

The Rule 5 Draft was held today.  Here are the first round picks. Draft picks are listed by the team making the selection, player name and the team he was selected from.

As a reminder, players selected in the Rule 5 draft must remain on the 25-man roster the entire subsequent season or they are returned to the team from which they were taken.

1. New York Yankees* (from Washington): Jamie Hoffmann, Dodgers
2. Pittsburgh: John Raynor, Marlins
3. Texas^ (from Baltimore): Benjamin Snyder, Giants
4. Kansas City: Edgar Osuna, Braves
5. Cleveland: Hector Ambriz, Diamondbacks
6. Arizona: Zach Kroenke, Yankees
7. New York Mets: Carlos Monasterios, Phillies
8. Florida# (from Houston): Jorge Jiminez, Red Sox
9. San Diego: pass
10. Oakland: Bobby Cassevah, Angels
11. Toronto: Zech Zinicola, Nationals
12. Chicago White Sox: pass
13. Milwaukee: Chuck Lofgren, Indians
14. Chicago Cubs: Mike Parisi, Cardinals
15. Tampa Bay: Armando Zerpa, Red Sox
16. Seattle: Kanekoa Texeira, Yankees
17. Texas: pass
18. Florida: pass
19. San Francisco: Steve Johnson, Orioles
20. St. Louis: Ben Jukich, Reds
21. Colorado: pass
22. Philadelphia: Ken Herndon, Angels
23. Los Angeles Dodgers: pass
24. Boston: pass
25. Los Angeles Angels: pass
26. New York Yankees: pass

* Acquired from Nationals as part of Brian Bruney trade
^ Acquired from Baltimore as part of Kevin Millwood trade
# Acquired from Houston as part of Matt Lindstrom trade

The Tigers, Twins, Braves and Reds did not have picks because their 40 man roster was full.

The number 1 pick of the 2009 Rule 5 Draft, Jamie Hoffmann will now play all of 2010 on the Yankees 25-man roster

The Atlanta Braves have agreed to trade reliever Rafael Soriano to the Tampa Bay Rays for reliever Jesse Chavez, according to Jon Heyman of Sports Illustrated.  Completion of the trade is pending a medical review. 

The interesting aspect of this agreement is Soriano's recent acceptance of the Braves arbitration offer.  The Braves likely did not expect Soriano to do so and now lose out on the compensation picks they would have received if Soriano simply signed with another team. 

Under the terms of the trade agreement, the Rays would pay all of whatever Soriano's salary would be in arbitration.  In essence, if the Rays do not agree to a contract with Soriano before arbitration, they traded for a player who's salary was undefined at the time.  Especially curious for a team with limited resources, as the Rays are often portrayed. 

However, Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports is reporting that the Rays will only consummate the trade if a contract agreement is reached between Tampa Bay and Soriano.

Rafael Soriano appears headed to Tampa Bay

The deadline for teams to offer arbitration to free agents was this past Tuesday and Keith Law of espn.com gives us his analysis of teams varying decisions to either offer or decline arbitration with their free agents.

• Billy Wagner was offered arbitration by the Red Sox and then signed with the Braves, giving the Red Sox the 20th overall pick in the 2010 draft along with a compensation pick.  Law loves that decision, but questions the Braves move, wondering how much value they'll get out of Wagner at the expense of the draft picks.  However, it seems likely that the Braves are anticipating losing Rafael Soriano or Mike Gonzalez making the draft picks a wash.  
• The Dodgers did not offer arbitration to Randy Wolf or Orlando Hudson, a clear indication that the team is in desperate financial difficulty and are afraid of the players actually accepting arbitration.  Both are Type A free agents meaning the Dodgers essentially gave up four draft picks if neither signed with LA. 
• Law agreed with the Giants decision not to offer Bengie Molina arbitration and hopes this means that the Buster Posey era - 5th overall pick of the 2008 draft - will start soon.

Is the Buster Posey era beginning in SF?

• Milwaukee did not offer Felipe Lopez arbitration, a curious decision.  Lopez only made $3.5M in 2009, did not have impressive HR, RBI or run totals and is represented by Scott Boras, so it seems unlikely that Lopez would have agreed to arbitration anyway.  Lopez is a Type B free agent and would have netted the Brewers two draft picks. 
• Similarly, the Angels raised some eyebrows by not offering Darren Oliver arbitration.  Oliver had a good year last year, likely would not cost much and as a Type A, if he left, would have netted the Angels two draft picks.  It's good news for Oliver, however, who might have had trouble finding suitors willing to give up a draft pick for him.
• Gregg Zaun and Brian Shouse were both offered arbitration by the Rays who would be ok whether the players accepted or rejected the offer.  Neither would have an unreasonable salary in 2010, but both are Type B free agents and would give the Rays a supplemental draft pick if they left. 
• The Twins have turned a "fringe prospect" into either 1.5 years of Carl Pavano or a half season of Pavano and a sandwich pick in the 2010 draft. 

A number of Rays rumors to look at in Joe Smith's article from the St. Petersburg Times.

• The Rays would like to sign star outfielder Carl Crawford to a long term extension.  Crawford will likely make about $11.5M in 2010 with escalators and could command quite a bit on the open market.  There's word in the article that the Mets and Braves have expressed interest in acquiring Crawford if the Rays look to move him, however it is likely that almost every team in baseball would be interested.
• BJ Upton is rumored to be available and the Rangers and White Sox have already inquired.
• Smith feels like the Rays will be interested in signing Kevin Gregg or JJ Putz this off season.
• Gregg Zaun is currently a free agent, but the team might look to bring him back and try the Zaun/Dioner Navarro platoon that worked in 2009.

Carl Crawford will command a lot in a trade if the Rays are unable to extend him

Jayson Stark from espn.com has a new article up with plenty of off season rumors.

• Milton Bradley appears to have three different suitors: Rays, Rangers and Jays. However, Bradley is owed $21M over the remainder of his contact, so the Cubs will likely have to take on a bad contract in return.
• The Marlins had discussions about trading Dan Uggla with the Giants and Rangers.
• Rather than bid on Jason Bay or Matt Holliday, the Yankees seem content to try and resign Johnny Damon or Hideki Matsui.
• Derek Lowe's contract is becoming burdensome for the Braves, especially as they look to extend Javier Vazquez. They'll try to move Lowe and hope to get a hitter in return for him.
• The Phillies are considering Placido Polanco, Mark DeRosa and Adrian Beltre at third base.

Johnny Damon is an off season priority for the Yankees

Buster Olney's latest column has plenty of free agent and trade rumors to discuss.

• The Astros payroll is hampered by the large contract of Carlos Lee, Lance Berkman and Roy Oswalt and they will only be able to make minor moves this off season.
• The Rangers inquired with the Rays about BJ Upton, but nothing very serious was discussed.
• Ryan Doumit was available at the trade deadline last year and the Pirates are still looking to move him.
• The Marlins are trying to shop Dan Uggla as a third baseman, but other teams are not buying it.

Dan Uggla is rumored to be available from the Marlins

What exactly is a "Super 2?"  Players with three years of major league service are eligible for a salary arbitration through six years of major league service when they are granted free agency if they have not agreed to a long-term deal.  However, every year there are a number of players with less than three years, but more than two years of major league service who also quality for arbitration.  These players are known as "Super 2s".

Under the 1990 labor agreement between owners and players, the top 17 percent of players (by service time) with at least two and less than three years of service time are eligible for arbitration - along with players with at least three years but less than six. 

For the 2010 off season, the following players qualify for "Super 2" status: pitcher Tim Lincecum of the Giants, Tampa Bay Rays pitcher Matt Garza, Cubs pitcher Tom Gorzelanny, third baseman Alex Gordon of the Kansas City Royals, Pittsburgh Pirates pitcher Jeff Karstens, Houston Astros outfielder Hunter Pence, Texas Rangers pitcher Dustin Nippert, recently traded Brewers outfielder Carlos Gomez and Cubs infielder Mike Fontenot. 

Fontenot tied with Baltimore Orioles outfielder Adam Jones and Cincinnati Reds pitcher Micah Owings with 2 years and 139 days of major league service.  Fontenot won a tie breaker with Jones and Owings by virtue of service time in each immediately preceding season. 

Arizona third baseman Mark Reynolds likely lost out on a multi-million dollar raise by falling one day short of qualifying as a "Super 2" amassing 2 years and 138 days of major league service.

Tim Lincecum will expect a big raise from arbitration

Below is a list of middle relievers that are eligible for free agency for the 2010 season, their age, current team, current contract and whether the player falls into a Type A or Type B free agent compensation status.

Free agent catchers
Free agent first basemen
Free agent second basemen
Free agent third basemen
Free agent shortstops
Free agent left fielders
Free agent center fielders
Free agent right fielders
Free agent starting pitchers
Free agent closers

Luis Ayala, 32, Marlins - 09:$1.3M
Danys Baez, 32, Orioles - 07:$4M, 08:$4.5M, 09:$5.5M
Joe Beimel, 32, Rockies - 09:$2M (Type B)
Joaquin Benoit, 32, Rangers - 08:$2M, 09:$3.5M
Rafael Betancourt, 35, Rockies - 08:$2.05M, 09:$3.35M, 10:$5.4M club option (Type A)
Chad Bradford, 35, Rays - 07:$3M, 08:$3.5M, 09:$3.5M
Doug Brocail, 43, Astros - 09:$2.5M (Type B)
Kiko Calero, 35, Marlins - 09:$500K (Type B)
Buddy Carlyle, 32, Braves - 09:$425K
Chad Cordero, 28, Mariners - 09:$750K
Elmer Dessens, 38, Mets - 09:$600K
R.A. Dickey, 35, Twins - 09:$525K
Brendan Donnelly, 38, Marlins - 09:$950K
Octavio Dotel, 36, White Sox - 08:$5M, 09:$6M (Type A)
Alan Embree, 40, Rockies - 09:$2M
Kelvim Escobar, 33, Angels - 07:$8.5M, 08:$9M, 09:$9.5M
Scott Eyre, 38, Phillies - 09:$2M (Type B)
Eric Gagne, 34, Brewers - 09:minor league contract
Geoff Geary, 33, Astros - 09:$1.7M
Dan Giese, 33, Athletics - 09:$422K
Edgar Gonzalez, 27, Padres - 09:$407K
Tom Gordon, 42, Diamondbacks - 09:$500K
John Grabow, 31, Cubs - 09:$2.3M (Type A)
Jason Grilli, 33, Rangers - 09:$800K
Eddie Guardado, 39, Rangers - 09:$1M
LaTroy Hawkins, 37, Astros - 09:$3.5M (Type A)
Mark Hendrickson, 36, Orioles - 09:$1.5M
Matt Herges, 40, Rockies - 09:minor league contract
Bobby Howry, 36, Giants - 09:$2.75M (Type B)
Jason Isringhausen, 37, Rays - 09:$750K
Masa Kobayashi, 36, Indians - 08:$3M, 09:$3M
Shane Loux, 30, Angels - 09:$405K
Brandon Lyon, 30, Tigers - 09:$4.25M (Type B)
Ron Mahay, 39, Twins - 08:$4M, 09:$4M
Gary Majewski, 30, Phillies - 09:minor league contract
Guillermo Mota, 36, Dodgers - 09:$2.35M (Type B)
Joe Nelson, 35, Rays - 09:$1.3M
Will Ohman, 31, Dodgers - 09:$1.35M (Type B)
Darren Oliver, 39, Angles - 09:$3.665M (Type A)
Chan Ho Park, 37, Phillies - 09:$2.5M (Type B)
Tony Pena Jr., 29, Royals - 09:$425K
Joel Peralta, 34, Rockies - 09:$640K
Troy Percival, 40, Rays - 08:$4M, 09:$4.445M
Scott Proctor, 33, Marlins - 09:$750K
JJ Putz, 33, Mets - 07:$2.2M, 08:$3.4M, 09:$5M
Horacio Ramirez, 30, Nationals - 09:$1.8M
Juan Rincon, 31, Rockies - 09:$750K
Glendon Rusch, 35, Rockies - 09:$750K
Takashi Saito, 40, Red Sox - 09:$4M, 10:$4M club option
Duaner Sanchez, 30, Padres - 09:$1.6875M
Scott Schoeneweis, 36, Diamondbacks - 07:$3.6M, 08:$3.6M, 09:$3.6M
Rudy Seanez, 41, Angels - 09:minor league contract
Brian Shouse, 41, Rays - 09:$1.55M (Type B)
Justin Speier, 36, Angels - 07:$3.75M, 08:$4.25M, 09:$4.75M
Russ Springer, 41, Rays - 09:$3.3M (Type B)
Ken Takahashi, 41, Mets - 09:minor league contract
Jack Taschner, 32, Phillies - 09:$835K
Julian Tavarez, 37, Nationals - 09:$500K
Ron Villone, 40, Nationals - 09:minor league contract
Luis Vizcaino, 35, Indians - 08:$3.5M, 09:$3.5M
Jamie Walker, 38, Orioles - 07:$3M, 08:$4.5M, 09:$4.5M
David Weathers, 40, Brewers - 09:$3.5M (Type B)
Jamey Wright, 35, Royals - 09:$800K
Yasuhiko Yabuta, 37, Royals - 08:$2.5M, 09:$3M
Tyler Yates, 32, Pirates - 09:$1.3M

Much like with Stephen Strasburg in the 2009 draft, Bryce Harper is universally considered to be the obvious #1 pick of the 2010 draft, coming in June.  But who's #2?  Ultimately, Dustin Ackley was universally accepted as the #2 player behind Strasburg in 2009, will Jameson Taillon fill that role behind Harper in 2010?  Baseball Rumor Mill thinks so and also provides the rest of our Top Ten players of the 2010 MLB Draft.

10. James Paxton, RHP, Kentucky: Paxton was originally taken with the 37th overall pick in the 2009 draft, but was unable to sign with the Blue Jays and has returned to Kentuckey for his senior year.  Paxton is a hard thrower who also has a good slider, but needs to improve his control.

9. Stetson Allie, RHO, St. Edward HS, OH: Allie continues to play both the field and pitch, but most scouts agree that his professional future is as a pitcher.  Despite control issues, he was throwing 97 against some of the top amateur competition at the AFLAC All-Star game - the type of speed that really gets attention.

8. Manny Machado, SS, Brito Miami Private HS, FL: Before his play with Team USA at the COPABE "AAA" Pan American Championships, some scouts were concerned about Machado's defense.  While Machado's defense was unremarkable during play, this bat was spectacular.  In pool play, Machado hit 435/536/739 with two home runs, nine RBI and nine runs scored in six games.

7. LeVon Washington, 2B, Buchholz HS, FL: Much like Paxton, Washington was the 30th overall pick in the 2009 draft by the Tampa Bay Rays, but was unable to sign.  Unlike Paxton, Washington will attend a junior college this season which will allow him to re-enter the draft next June. 

6. AJ Cole, RHP, Oviedo HS, FL: Much like Allie, Cole can throw the ball hard, hitting 96 at the East Coast Showcase and throwing 93 at the AFLAC All-Star game.  However, Cole also needs to improve his control and his other pitches are not yet professional quality. 

5. Karsten Whitson, RHP, Chipley HS, FL: Whitson pitched for Team USA as well and threw well in the COPABE "AAA" Pan American Championships.  He doesn't throw as hard as his teammate, Taillon, but has more movement on the pitch. 

4. Deck McGuire, RHP, Georgia Tech: McGuire was the 2009 ACC Pitcher of the Year and figures to be on everyone's Top Ten lists.  While his fastball currently tops out in the low 90s, he throws his slider, changeup and curveball all at an above average level.

3. Anthony Ranaudo, RHP, LSU: Excluding Harper who's technically a college player, Ranaudo figures to be the first collegiate player drafted.  He compliments a mid-90s fastball with a solid curveball and changeup.  The only factor which may cause him to slide is signability - Scott Boras is his advisor.

Anthony Ranaudo of LSU

2. Jameson Taillon, RHP, The Woodlands HS, TX: Because of his size (6'7", 230 lbs) and where he's from (Texas), Taillon is already hearing Roger Clemens comparisons.  Those are certainly premature, but the righty throws a very hard fastball and a good curveball.  Taillon was dominant for Team USA during the COPABE "AAA" Pan American Championships. 

1. Bryce Harper, C, College of Southern Nevada: The SI coverboy left high school after only his sophomore year so that he could enroll at a junior college and be eligible for the 2010 draft, instead of the 2011 draft.  Harper brings all of the tools that teams want to see out of a draft prospect.  He can hit for average and power, runs well, throws well and has great baseball acumen.  The only question is whether he'll be a catcher as a professional.