Stephen Strasburg
Rumors

"I look at the bright side," Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo said Friday. "Tommy John surgery is a surgery that we've had great success at. The success rate for guys coming back from Tommy John and retaining their stuff is very good. We saw two examples of it on the mound yesterday at Nationals Park."

Empirically, Rizzo is correct about Stephen Strasburg's ability to recover from likely Tommy John surgery.  In fact, he may be right even statistically.  Look at this list of players in MLB who have had Tommy John surgery.  There are plenty of success stories in there.  Chris Carpenter.  Tim Hudson.  Shawn Marcum.  AJ Burnett.  Josh Johnson.  Joakim Soria.  Rafael Soriano.

The problem with Strasburg, however, is that the Nationals didn't draft and sign Tim Hudson.  Or Shawn Marcum.  Or a closer like Soria and Soriano. Rather, the Nationals used the #1 pick of the 2009 draft on what Strasburg's agent, Scott Boras, dubbed a "once in a generation pitcher."  Carpenter and Johnson are very good pitchers, but they're not the type of pitcher that comes around every fifty years. 

Reality is that Strasburg will return in 2012 and will likely be a very good pitcher.  More and more pitchers are recovering from Tommy John surgery with good success, returning with their stuff, as Rizzo said.  But, will Strasburg be able to throw 99-100mph in 2012?  Will his change up still be 90-91mph?  That type of ability seems unlikely to survive a major elbow surgery. 

Beyond the obvious impact Strasburg's physical ability, the impact to the Nationals bottom line will be crippling, even at the simple basic level of individual ticket sales.  Consider that the Nationals average ticket price is $35 and their average crowd for a Strasburg start is roughly (and conservatively) 10,000 fans larger than a typical home game.  At $350,000 a game times the approximately five home starts Strasburg would have left that is a $1.75M loss for the Nationals. 

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The Reds Mike Leake got the 2009 draft class off to a roaring start by beginning his first professional season in the major leagues.  Reliever Drew Storen of the Nationals didn't spend much time in the minor leagues before Joining Leake as a major leaguer with Washington.  And, of course, everyone knows Stephen Strasburg's story.

Next up: Atlanta's Mike Minor.

Braves starter Kris Medlen has been placed on the 15-day disabled list with a partial tear of the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow opening the door for Minor to join the club and make his first major league start Monday against Houston.  The Astros are a good team for anyone to start their career against - only Pittsburgh has scored fewer runs this year.

From Vanderbilt, Minor was the seventh overall pick of the 2009 draft by the Braves, the second collegiate pitcher taken after the Nationals selected Strasburg with the first overall picks.  Minor's promotion mean that all of the first four collegiate pitchers taken in the first round of the 2009 draft have made the major leagues within their first professional season. 

After Minor, Leake was taken by Cincinnati with the 8th pick and Storen by the Nationals with the 10th pick.  The Indians Alex White was the next college pitcher selected with pick #15, although the Royals Aaron Crow was playing semi-pro ball when they selected him with the twelfth pick.

We've presented mock drafts from a number of different writers and publishers and multiple versions of their mock drafts.  With just a few hours left before the draft, it is time for Baseball Rumor Mill's shot at a mock draft of tonight's first round.

1) Washington Nationals: Bryce Harper, College of Southern Nevada, C
Little left to say here as this pick is set in stone.

2) Pittsburgh Pirates: Jameson Taillon, The Woodlands, RHP
Multiple reports have the Pirates taking Taillon

3) Baltimore Orioles: Manny Machado, Brito HS, SS
This pick is down to Taillon or Machado, whomever Pittsburgh doesn't take

4) Kansas City Royals: Chris Sale, Florida Gulf Coast, LHP
Rumors about a pre-draft deal with Yasmani Grandal are falling apart.  The Royals have been rumored to want to keep costs down anyway, so Sale makes sense.

5) Cleveland Indians: Yasmani Grandal, Miami, C
If the rumors about the Indians upping the Royals offer are true, Grandal will go here.

6) Arizona Diamondbacks: Drew Pomeranz, Ole Miss, LHP
All reports have Pomeranz going here

7) New York Mets: Zack Cox, Arkansas, 3B
His rumored salary demands could send him tumbling, but the Mets have money and the big names have all gone in front of them.

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Ever since Stephen Strasburg was the #1 overall pick of the 2009 draft way back on June 9th, 2009, everyone has been anxiously awaiting his major league debut.  The hype that has surrounded Strasburg since even before he was drafted has been enormous and everyone is curious how it will translate to the major leagues.

So far, every level of professional baseball has not presented much of a challenge for Strasburg.  Here are his minor league stats:

AA: 3-1, 1.64 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 27 Ks in 22.0 IP
AAA: 3-0, 0.39 ERA, 0.56 WHIP, 27 Ks in 23.1 IP

As many have speculated, having Strasburg start June 8th will set him up nicely against a number of poor offenses.  Assuming all goes to plan (though it never does in baseball), Strasburg will face Pittsburgh, Cleveland, ChiSox, Baltimore, Atlanta, San Diego and San Francisco prior to the All-Star break. Those teams rank 29th, 26th, 22nd, 27th, 15th, 23rd and 24th in the majors in runs-scored.

No matter what happens, Strasburg's first start is sure to garner tons of media attention.  It'd also be the day before his one-year anniversary as the #1 draft pick and just a day after another college phenom, Bryce Harper, is expected to be the #1 pick of the 2010 draft on June 7th, 2010.

It's only the middle of April, but reports are already surfacing that the Washington Nationals have made a decision to select Bryce Harper with the #1 overall pick in June's draft. 

Or have they?

Ben Goessling of masn.com writes that the Nationals decision to take Harper is as simple as their decision to take Stephen Strasburg last year. 

On the other hand, Bill Ladson of mlb.com writes that a prominent source within the Nationals organization denies the report that a decision has been made on Harper.  "Not true," the source said. "No decision has been made."  Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post spoke with Nationals Director of Amateur Scouting Kris Kline and he confirms the report that the Nationals have not settled on a first pick.  "I don't think that's etched in stone," he said. "We're going to keep scouting guys until the end of the draft."

Although he has heard that the Nationals are going to take the catching phenom, what matters, writes Keith Law of espn.com is that there really is no other choice beyond Harper.  There simply isn't another reasonable option for Washington, as taking a high school pitcher such as Jameson Taillon seems too risky for the #1 pick and a more safer bet like Anthony Ranaudo now has health concerns.

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Stephen Strasburg starts the game and Drew Storen closes it.  A sentence that the few, the proud Nationals fans hope becomes their own version of Stockton to Malone.  The two pitchers, taken #1 and #10 overall in the 2009 draft currently represent a rare period of excitement for Washington Nationals fans.  Although over 75% of the attention right now is being heaped on Strasburg, don't sleep on Storen. 

Both made their professional debuts on Sunday night, pitching for Washington's AA affiliate, the Harrisburg Senators.  The Senators won the game, 6-4 on the strength of Strasburg's first start and Storen closing the door with a four-out save.  Strasburg's line was solid: 5IP, 4H, 2BB, 4R, 1ER, 8K for the win.  Storen's was equally as good: 1.1IP, 0H, 0BB, 0ER, 2K for the save.

The attention to the game was astronomical.  Jonathan Mayo of mlb.com writes that 70+ media credentials were issued, ten television stations and five radio stations were present and countless newspapers and websites were present to give their version of Strasburg's outing.  We'll review the various articles written about Strasburg's debut below

Keith Law, espn.com: "Strasburg's velocity was incredible; he hit 99 with his first pitch and reached that mark two other times in the third inning. He didn't throw a fastball under 97 until the fourth. His fastball command wasn't great, although that may have been more a function of situation than inability to locate. His best, most consistent pitch was his curveball, 78-83 mph with incredibly sharp two-plane break and a downward finish, and he threw it for strikes most of the day. His worst pitch was, as before, his changeup, still a work in progress, although he threw several that were plus in the 87-88 mph range with hard downward tail.

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For most high school pitchers, the time table to get to the major leagues is at least 2-3 years, potentially longer depending on their level of maturity.  As Jason Churchill from espn.com found out while talking to a scout recently "If you get the right kind of high school arm, they can get there in two, two and a half years," said one scout, a former big league pitcher and prep draftee himself. "But it sets stuff aside, really. He has to be able to throw strikes consistently, and there are a lot of mental makeup questions that have to be answered.

For last year's class, a few former high school names are standing out as possibilities to make impacts on their respective clubs sooner than anticipated.  Tyler Matzek who fell to the Rockies at #11 because of signability concerns was considered by some to be the second best pitcher (behind Stephen Strasburg) available in the draft.  Although he has yet to make his professional debut, most see him rising through the Colorado system quickly. 

Two other names on that list are Shelby Miller of St. Louis and Matt Hobgood of Baltimore.  Both threw well last year and have been sent to Single A clubs to being 2010.

Who could make such an impact in 2010?  Here are three names to consider.

Jameson Taillon, The Woodlands HS, RHP: Taillon is very special," said an AL club's area scout. "I'm told by our guys that Taillon has the best stuff bar none and the most upside.

AJ Cole, Ovideo HS, RHP: One of the top pitchers in the 2010 class. He sits comfortably in the low 90s and has touched as high as 96 mph.

Karsten Whitson, Chjpley HS, RHP: He's big, strong and durable and he's got plenty of projection, meaning he might throw harder than his already mid-90s fastball. Add in a plus breaking ball and good changeup and he's got a very intriguing three-pitch mix.

To read the complete article, visit espn.com.

Unlike with the NBA or NFL draft where obvious positional needs or surpluses can help narrow down a team's draft interests, in baseball it is harder to predict what direction a team will go because talent is almost always selected over position. 

What is likely more important than position is a player's likeliness to sign as there is no rookie salary scales such as in the NBA or forced professionalism as in the NFL.  A high school senior or collegiate, draft-eligible freshman, sophomore or junior can go to school even after being drafted so long as they do not sign a contract. 

The murkiness of the draft makes predicting the MLB draft a lot more difficult, both for prognosticators and the teams.  What other questions would teams like to see answered before the June 8th draft?

1) What will Scott Boras's impact on the draft be?

As mentioned earlier, a player's signabiliy is often as important, if not more important, than his actual talent.  A notorious hard negotiator, Boras is the type of advisor who will push for his clients to get more than their draft slot value and this type of approach may discourage teams from drafting a talented player for fear of losing him if he does not sign. 

Will Ranaudo's affiliation with Boras cause his draft stock to slip?

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Often considered the unanimous #1 pick in the 2010 draft, some scouts still express concerns about Bryce Harper's professional future.  Buster Olney of ESPN.com recently made the decision to draft Harper with the first overall pick (or even a high draft pick) to the debate many NFL scouting directors are having trying to evaluate Tim Tebow's professional prospects. 

Unlike with Stephen Strasburg last year who was the best pitching prospect, well, ever, Harper (and Tebow) present a more difficult challenge.  How do you rectify someone who has such incredible physical ability with possible major mechanical flaws?  Sure, these flaws have not manifested themselves yet in their respective competition level, but will they be able to "get away with it" at the professional level?  Right now many are saying that Harper, because of his young age, will either be able to mature out of his flaws or correct them.  Tebow is a more difficult project.

Bryce Harper hits tape measure home runs right now, but will he as a pro?

No one questions Harper's bat speed, but already the whispers are growing that he strikes out far more often than someone of his ability should at the junior college level.  Despite hitting a respectable .408 early in the season for the College of Southern Nevada, he has 17 strike outs in 71 at-bats.  Scouts are concerned with Harper's lower body when he swings and some have noted that it is a violent swing - different from Joe Mauer when he was the #1 pick back in 2001.

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Division 1 NCAA baseball got underway this past weekend with a number of top prospects getting their seasons started.  Here's a quick look at some of the highlights. 

Pitchers

• Anthony Ranaudo from LSU had a strong outing going 5IP, 6K, 0ER along with just three baserunners.  His fastball was clocked at 93-89mph.
• From Ohio State, Alex Wimmers, gave up just one hit and one walk over six innings and struck out nine in his debut.  According to Jason Churchill at espn.com, A former AL West scout now working for an agent said "he'd have to fall apart not be a first-round arm, but for me he could be anywhere from 10 to 30."
• Deck McGuire out performed both Ranaudo and Wimmers, with a 7IP, 5H, 0BB 0ER, 10K performance.  Though he gave up more baserunners than Ranaudo and Wimmers, the control he demonstrated with no walks was impressive.
• Ole Miss's Drew Pomeranz struggled a bit, yielding two earned runs on four hits and two walks in four innings pitched.  He did manage seven strikeouts.
• Chad Bettis from Texas Tech also had a nice line, going 7IP, 6H and induced 14 groundball outs.

Deck McGuire was very impressive in his 2010 debut

Hitters

• Austin Wates squared off against a possible high 2011 pick, Alex Meyer, and had a very nice 2-for-3 line with 2BB and a triple.  One large negative, however, was that Virginia Tech played Wates at first base rather than in the outfield.  Wates draft status depends upon his ability to be an outfielder, not a corner infielder.
• Though he's been crowned the top pick of the 2010 draft multiple times, scouts are still watching Bryce Harper closely to see how he handles improved competition.  Unlike Stephen Strasburg last year who had three years against the top competition in the country, Harper is largely untested.  He struggled against one hard throwing lefty, but had some better swings against other high velocity fastballs later in the weekend.
• LeVon Washington showed improvement at he plate, but struggled in centerfield.  If he can't play the outfield, his draft stock will suffer.
• Zack Cox, Bryce Brentz, Yasmani Grandal and Christian Colon all had solid performances in their debuts.

Austin Wates had a nice debut to start the season