Stephen Strasburg
Rumors

Often considered the unanimous #1 pick in the 2010 draft, some scouts still express concerns about Bryce Harper's professional future.  Buster Olney of ESPN.com recently made the decision to draft Harper with the first overall pick (or even a high draft pick) to the debate many NFL scouting directors are having trying to evaluate Tim Tebow's professional prospects. 

Unlike with Stephen Strasburg last year who was the best pitching prospect, well, ever, Harper (and Tebow) present a more difficult challenge.  How do you rectify someone who has such incredible physical ability with possible major mechanical flaws?  Sure, these flaws have not manifested themselves yet in their respective competition level, but will they be able to "get away with it" at the professional level?  Right now many are saying that Harper, because of his young age, will either be able to mature out of his flaws or correct them.  Tebow is a more difficult project.

Bryce Harper hits tape measure home runs right now, but will he as a pro?

No one questions Harper's bat speed, but already the whispers are growing that he strikes out far more often than someone of his ability should at the junior college level.  Despite hitting a respectable .408 early in the season for the College of Southern Nevada, he has 17 strike outs in 71 at-bats.  Scouts are concerned with Harper's lower body when he swings and some have noted that it is a violent swing - different from Joe Mauer when he was the #1 pick back in 2001.

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Division 1 NCAA baseball got underway this past weekend with a number of top prospects getting their seasons started.  Here's a quick look at some of the highlights. 

Pitchers

• Anthony Ranaudo from LSU had a strong outing going 5IP, 6K, 0ER along with just three baserunners.  His fastball was clocked at 93-89mph.
• From Ohio State, Alex Wimmers, gave up just one hit and one walk over six innings and struck out nine in his debut.  According to Jason Churchill at espn.com, A former AL West scout now working for an agent said "he'd have to fall apart not be a first-round arm, but for me he could be anywhere from 10 to 30."
• Deck McGuire out performed both Ranaudo and Wimmers, with a 7IP, 5H, 0BB 0ER, 10K performance.  Though he gave up more baserunners than Ranaudo and Wimmers, the control he demonstrated with no walks was impressive.
• Ole Miss's Drew Pomeranz struggled a bit, yielding two earned runs on four hits and two walks in four innings pitched.  He did manage seven strikeouts.
• Chad Bettis from Texas Tech also had a nice line, going 7IP, 6H and induced 14 groundball outs.

Deck McGuire was very impressive in his 2010 debut

Hitters

• Austin Wates squared off against a possible high 2011 pick, Alex Meyer, and had a very nice 2-for-3 line with 2BB and a triple.  One large negative, however, was that Virginia Tech played Wates at first base rather than in the outfield.  Wates draft status depends upon his ability to be an outfielder, not a corner infielder.
• Though he's been crowned the top pick of the 2010 draft multiple times, scouts are still watching Bryce Harper closely to see how he handles improved competition.  Unlike Stephen Strasburg last year who had three years against the top competition in the country, Harper is largely untested.  He struggled against one hard throwing lefty, but had some better swings against other high velocity fastballs later in the weekend.
• LeVon Washington showed improvement at he plate, but struggled in centerfield.  If he can't play the outfield, his draft stock will suffer.
• Zack Cox, Bryce Brentz, Yasmani Grandal and Christian Colon all had solid performances in their debuts.

Austin Wates had a nice debut to start the season

Keith Law of espn.com released his preliminary list of the Top 50 draft prospects for MLB's 2010 amateur draft in June.  Law pointed out that the ranking is extremely preliminary with so many schools having not even started play yet, or only just begun.  A number of players on this list haven't even played a game yet. 

Of note is Law's assertion that the talent in 2010, even with Bryce Harper, is well below the 2009 and 2008 drafts which included stars like Stephen Strasburg and Pedro Alvarez. Specifically, college position players and high school shortstops and catchers seem to be particularly thin in 2010.

Perhaps most telling is that word is only Harper and Anthony Ranaudo will be able to command signing bonuses above their typical draft slot based on their ability.  It should make for an interesting draft in terms of the worst teams being able to draft the top talent as players hopefully do not slide because of salary demands.

The list was split evenly between pitchers and position players at 25 a piece.  Besides Harper and Ranaudo, Jameson Taillon (3) is the highest ranked pitcher while Austin Wilson (5) is the highest ranked position player at. 

Law has 27 high school players on the list vs. 23 collegiate players.  Taillon is the highest ranked high school pitcher followed by AJ Cole (6), while Wilson and then Josh Sale (9) are the highest ranked high school position players

AJ Cole found himself #6 in Keith Law's preliminary rankings

After Harper and Ranaudo, Deck McGuire (4) is the highest ranked college pitcher while outfielder Bryce Brentz comes in at #7

Other players of note include Alex Wimmers  (8), Brandon Workman (16), Jake Hernandez (26), Vincent Velasquez (31) and Jarrett Parker rounding out the top 50.

Recently, a number of respected baseball media outlets have released their respective lists of the top number of prospects heading into the 2010 season.  These lists include Keith Law of espn.com's Top 100, Jonathan Mayo's collection of top prospects starting with Scouting the Sally's Top 30, Oriolesprospects.com Top 20, Propects Paradise's Top 30, Camden Crazies Top 25, Dave Barr's Hot Corner Top 20, Prospect Junkie's Top 20, The Cardinal Nation's Top 40, Seth Stohs from sethspeaks.net's Top 20, and Mayo's Top 50.

Obviously this all represents opinion, but to get a better idea of the overall feel of the group Baseball Rumor Mill averaged the Top 20 rankings from all of the lists to come up with an aggregate ranking of the Top 20 prospects heading into 2010. 

The rankings were tabulated only evaluating the Top 20 of each list and a point value was assigned to each rank.  #1 = 20 points, #2 = 19 points, so on down to #20 = 1 point.  If a player was not listed in the Top 20 a NR indication was given and no points were awarded.  The rankings are based on aggregate point totals, though we also did an evaluation of point totals after dropping the highest ranking and lowest ranking.  For instance, Desmond Jennings finished fifth overall in aggregate, but would be tied for 3rd with Buster Posey after dropping each player's highest and lowest ranking.

To view the raw data, click here.

Not surprisingly, Jason Heyward and Stephen Strasburg were significantly ahead of the field at the #1 and #2 spot, respectively.  There seems to be a considerable drop in consensus after either Dustin Ackley at #12 or Madison Bumgarner at #13.  Only ten players received Top 20 votes in all ten rankings.

Without further ado, the aggregate rankings

1. Jason Heyward, OF Atlanta
2. Stephen Strasburg, P Washington
3. Buster Posey, C San Francisco
4. Brian Matsuz, P Baltimore
5. Desmond Jennings, OF Tampa Bay
6. Carlos Santana, C Cleveland
7. Jesus Montero, C New York Yankees
8. Neftali Feliz, P Texas
9. Mike Stanton, OF Florida
10. Pedro Alvarez, 3B Pittsburgh
11. Justin Smoak, 1B Texas
12. Dustin Ackley, OF Seattle
13. Madison Bumgarner, P San Francisco
14. Aroldis Chapman, P Cincinnati
15. Domonic Brown, OF Philadelphia
16. Jeremy Hellickson, P Tampa Bay
17. Martin Perez, P Texas
18. Alcides Escobar, SS Brewers
19. Wade Davis, P Tampa Bay
20. Chris Carter, 1B Oakland

Less than a year after being the #1 draft pick, Strasburg rates as the #2 prospect in baseball

The College of Southern Nevada's baseball season started this past weekend and that means the news about 2010's #1 draft prospect, Bryce Harper, will only continue to swell as we head into the heart of the baseball season and then draft season.  Baseball Rumor Mill will keep you up to date on all the news that is written about the phenom.

• CSN head coach Tim Chambers talks about Harper before this weekend's debut in this clip.
• Todd Dewey of the Las Vegas Review-Journal takes a look back and Harper's debut on Friday and his dramatic last at bat.
• Coach Chambers is excited for CSN's season not just because of Harper, but also the talent around him.  CSN is ranked #1 among junior colleges heading into the 2010 season.  BRM took a look at Harper's supporting cast at CSN in a post last year.
• Ray Brewer of the Las Vegas Sun explores Coach Chambers decision not to allow media access to his superstar.  Some think that this tactic is a product of Harper's advisor, Scott Boras, working behind the scenes.  
• Pirates general manager Neal Huntington talked about how raw Harper is as a prospect and is a far bigger risk as the #1 pick than Stephen Strasburg was last year.  

Bryce Harper is sure to generate a lot of news in the coming months

Much like with Stephen Strasburg in the 2009 draft, Bryce Harper is universally considered to be the obvious #1 pick of the 2010 draft, coming in June.  But who's #2?  Ultimately, Dustin Ackley was universally accepted as the #2 player behind Strasburg in 2009, will Jameson Taillon fill that role behind Harper in 2010?  Baseball Rumor Mill thinks so and also provides the rest of our Top Ten players of the 2010 MLB Draft.

10. James Paxton, RHP, Kentucky: Paxton was originally taken with the 37th overall pick in the 2009 draft, but was unable to sign with the Blue Jays and has returned to Kentuckey for his senior year.  Paxton is a hard thrower who also has a good slider, but needs to improve his control.

9. Stetson Allie, RHO, St. Edward HS, OH: Allie continues to play both the field and pitch, but most scouts agree that his professional future is as a pitcher.  Despite control issues, he was throwing 97 against some of the top amateur competition at the AFLAC All-Star game - the type of speed that really gets attention.

8. Manny Machado, SS, Brito Miami Private HS, FL: Before his play with Team USA at the COPABE "AAA" Pan American Championships, some scouts were concerned about Machado's defense.  While Machado's defense was unremarkable during play, this bat was spectacular.  In pool play, Machado hit 435/536/739 with two home runs, nine RBI and nine runs scored in six games.

7. LeVon Washington, 2B, Buchholz HS, FL: Much like Paxton, Washington was the 30th overall pick in the 2009 draft by the Tampa Bay Rays, but was unable to sign.  Unlike Paxton, Washington will attend a junior college this season which will allow him to re-enter the draft next June. 

6. AJ Cole, RHP, Oviedo HS, FL: Much like Allie, Cole can throw the ball hard, hitting 96 at the East Coast Showcase and throwing 93 at the AFLAC All-Star game.  However, Cole also needs to improve his control and his other pitches are not yet professional quality. 

5. Karsten Whitson, RHP, Chipley HS, FL: Whitson pitched for Team USA as well and threw well in the COPABE "AAA" Pan American Championships.  He doesn't throw as hard as his teammate, Taillon, but has more movement on the pitch. 

4. Deck McGuire, RHP, Georgia Tech: McGuire was the 2009 ACC Pitcher of the Year and figures to be on everyone's Top Ten lists.  While his fastball currently tops out in the low 90s, he throws his slider, changeup and curveball all at an above average level.

3. Anthony Ranaudo, RHP, LSU: Excluding Harper who's technically a college player, Ranaudo figures to be the first collegiate player drafted.  He compliments a mid-90s fastball with a solid curveball and changeup.  The only factor which may cause him to slide is signability - Scott Boras is his advisor.

Anthony Ranaudo of LSU

2. Jameson Taillon, RHP, The Woodlands HS, TX: Because of his size (6'7", 230 lbs) and where he's from (Texas), Taillon is already hearing Roger Clemens comparisons.  Those are certainly premature, but the righty throws a very hard fastball and a good curveball.  Taillon was dominant for Team USA during the COPABE "AAA" Pan American Championships. 

1. Bryce Harper, C, College of Southern Nevada: The SI coverboy left high school after only his sophomore year so that he could enroll at a junior college and be eligible for the 2010 draft, instead of the 2011 draft.  Harper brings all of the tools that teams want to see out of a draft prospect.  He can hit for average and power, runs well, throws well and has great baseball acumen.  The only question is whether he'll be a catcher as a professional.

Once again the Washington Nationals "won" the right to choose the undisputed best amateur player available. Last year it was Stephen Strasburg who the Nationals selected with the #1 overall pick. Will the Nationals take consensus #1 player Bryce Harper with first pick in 2010?

Ultimately, this will not be the final draft order come next June. If one of the teams with an unprotected first-round pick signs a "Type A" free agent, they would lose their pick to the team that lost the player. Additionally, the teams that lose a "Type A" free agent will also be awarded a compensation pick to come between the first and second rounds. Baseball Rumor Mill will continuously update the draft order as picks move around during free agency this winter.

Compensation picks have been included.

Protected First-Round Picks
1) Nationals (59-103)
2) Pirates (62-99)
3) Orioles (64-98)
4) Royals (65-97)
5) Indians (65-97)
6) Diamondbacks (70-92)
7) Mets (70-92)
8) Astros (74-88)
9) Padres (75-87)
10) Athletics (75-87)
11) Blue Jays (75-87)
12) Reds (78-84)
13) White Sox (79-83)
14) Brewers (80-82)
15) Rangers (compensation for failure to sign Matt Purke)
16) Cubs (83-78)
Unprotected First-Round Picks
17) Rays (84-78)
18) Mariners (85-77)
19) Tigers (86-77)
20) Braves (86-76)
21) Twins (87-76)
22) Rangers (87-75)
23) Marlins (87-75)
24) Giants (88-74)
25) Cardinals (91-71)
26) Rockies (92-70)
27) Phillies (93-69)
28) Dodgers (95-67)
29) Red Sox (95-67)
30) Angels (97-65)
31) Yankees (103-59)
32) Rays (compensation for failure to sign LeVon Washington)

When teams finish with the same record, the tiebreaker (and higher pick) goes to the club with the worst record the previous year.

The seemingly arcane rules of the MLB Draft state that an amateur player - someone who is eligible for the draft and has completed no more than his junior year of college - can retain the services of an adviser, but not an agent.  But, what's the difference?

Strictly speaking, the NCAA defines an adviser as someone who consults with a family while they negotiate with a team, but does not interact with the team directly.  An agent, however, is defined as "someone who tries to market a player's skills to an MLB club or communicate directly with a team on a player's behalf."  If an adviser/agent violates this description, the NCAA can strip a player of his amateur status and ability to play collegiate baseball.

This doesn't seem too complicated or unfair until you consider the other endeavors in life where someone is afforded the right to direct legal representation: any criminal proceeding, purchasing a home, negotiating a contract and a number of other endeavors when a lawyer's services are retained for a fee and the representation often handles everything directly.  By hiring someone to do this for a player, what part of their amateur status is violated?

Some further the point by noting that teams prefer to deal with agents directly, the ones who have a large understanding of amateur contracts, what goes in to them and what is expected and fair.  Furthering that point, how can the parents of a baseball prodigy be expected to negotiate the best contract possible with a professional baseball team that has comparatively unlimited resources and loads of experience?  Would Stephen Strasburg have been able to sign a record contract without Scott Boras's services?

Widely considered one of the top collegiate pitchers available for the 2010 MLB draft, Anthony Ranaudo has selected super agent Scott Boras to be his advisor. A right handed pitcher out of LSU, Ranaudo was first selected in the 2007 draft by the Texas Rangers in the 11th round.

Ranaudo is a big (6'7") pitcher who throws his fastball in the mid-90s along with a good curveball and change up. Despite his size, Ranaudo demonstrates good control and finished the 2008 season 3rd in strikeouts behind Stephen Strasburg (#1 overall in 2009 draft) and Mike Leake (#8 overall in 2009 draft).

Ranaudo joins LHP James Paxton, 2B LeVon Washington, RHPs Matt Harvey and Greg Peavy and C Bryce Harper as players who have choosen Boras as their advisor for the 2010 MLB draft.

Keith Law and Jason Churchill from espn.com were monitoring the signings going down on the deadline to sign 2009 draft picks. Let's recap of what happened.

For a full list of all of the 1st round signings, click here.

The deadline for players to sign is August 17, 2009

#1 Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals - After plenty of speculation that he would not sign, Strasburg inked a $15M signing bonus, the highest in MLB history.
#2 Dustin Ackley, Seattle Mariners - Signed for $7.5M. His deal was at first thought to be $9.5, but those early reports were erroneous.
#3 Donovan Tate, San Diego Padres - Instead of going back to UNC to play football, Tate signed with the Padres for $6.25M
#6 Zach Wheeler, San Francisco Giant - Signed for $3.3M.
#9 Jacob Turner, Detroit Tigers - Was looking for Rick Porcello-like money and got close to it - signed for $5.5M
#11 Tyler Matzek, Colorado Rockies - Allegedly needed to "break the bank" with his deal and signed for $3.9M
#12 Aaron Crow, Kansas City Royals - Still has not signed, but is not subject to the Aug 17th deadline.
#13 Grant Green, Oakland As - Received a $2.75M signing bonus.
#14 Matt Purke, Texas Rangers - Did not sign and will head to college.
#15 Alex White, Cleveland Indians - As expected, White signed for a bit less than Minor did: $2.25M.
#19 Shelby Miller, St. Louis Cardinals - Received a signing bonus of $2.875M
#22 Kyle Gibson, Minnesota Twins - Signed a $1.8M contract.
#29 Slade Heathcott, New York Yankees - Signed a $2.2M contract.
#30 LeVon Washington, Tampa Bay Rays - Ultimately did not sign with the Rays.