"I look at the bright side," Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo said Friday. "Tommy John surgery is a surgery that we've had great success at. The success rate for guys coming back from Tommy John and retaining their stuff is very good. We saw two examples of it on the mound yesterday at Nationals Park."

Empirically, Rizzo is correct about Stephen Strasburg's ability to recover from likely Tommy John surgery.  In fact, he may be right even statistically.  Look at this list of players in MLB who have had Tommy John surgery.  There are plenty of success stories in there.  Chris Carpenter.  Tim Hudson.  Shawn Marcum.  AJ Burnett.  Josh Johnson.  Joakim Soria.  Rafael Soriano.

The problem with Strasburg, however, is that the Nationals didn't draft and sign Tim Hudson.  Or Shawn Marcum.  Or a closer like Soria and Soriano. Rather, the Nationals used the #1 pick of the 2009 draft on what Strasburg's agent, Scott Boras, dubbed a "once in a generation pitcher."  Carpenter and Johnson are very good pitchers, but they're not the type of pitcher that comes around every fifty years. 

Reality is that Strasburg will return in 2012 and will likely be a very good pitcher.  More and more pitchers are recovering from Tommy John surgery with good success, returning with their stuff, as Rizzo said.  But, will Strasburg be able to throw 99-100mph in 2012?  Will his change up still be 90-91mph?  That type of ability seems unlikely to survive a major elbow surgery. 

Beyond the obvious impact Strasburg's physical ability, the impact to the Nationals bottom line will be crippling, even at the simple basic level of individual ticket sales.  Consider that the Nationals average ticket price is $35 and their average crowd for a Strasburg start is roughly (and conservatively) 10,000 fans larger than a typical home game.  At $350,000 a game times the approximately five home starts Strasburg would have left that is a $1.75M loss for the Nationals. 

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It's only the middle of April, but reports are already surfacing that the Washington Nationals have made a decision to select Bryce Harper with the #1 overall pick in June's draft. 

Or have they?

Ben Goessling of masn.com writes that the Nationals decision to take Harper is as simple as their decision to take Stephen Strasburg last year. 

On the other hand, Bill Ladson of mlb.com writes that a prominent source within the Nationals organization denies the report that a decision has been made on Harper.  "Not true," the source said. "No decision has been made."  Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post spoke with Nationals Director of Amateur Scouting Kris Kline and he confirms the report that the Nationals have not settled on a first pick.  "I don't think that's etched in stone," he said. "We're going to keep scouting guys until the end of the draft."

Although he has heard that the Nationals are going to take the catching phenom, what matters, writes Keith Law of espn.com is that there really is no other choice beyond Harper.  There simply isn't another reasonable option for Washington, as taking a high school pitcher such as Jameson Taillon seems too risky for the #1 pick and a more safer bet like Anthony Ranaudo now has health concerns.

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Unlike with the NBA or NFL draft where obvious positional needs or surpluses can help narrow down a team's draft interests, in baseball it is harder to predict what direction a team will go because talent is almost always selected over position. 

What is likely more important than position is a player's likeliness to sign as there is no rookie salary scales such as in the NBA or forced professionalism as in the NFL.  A high school senior or collegiate, draft-eligible freshman, sophomore or junior can go to school even after being drafted so long as they do not sign a contract. 

The murkiness of the draft makes predicting the MLB draft a lot more difficult, both for prognosticators and the teams.  What other questions would teams like to see answered before the June 8th draft?

1) What will Scott Boras's impact on the draft be?

As mentioned earlier, a player's signabiliy is often as important, if not more important, than his actual talent.  A notorious hard negotiator, Boras is the type of advisor who will push for his clients to get more than their draft slot value and this type of approach may discourage teams from drafting a talented player for fear of losing him if he does not sign. 

Will Ranaudo's affiliation with Boras cause his draft stock to slip?

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After unsuccessful attempts at an injunction against Kentucky to bar the university from preventing him from playing and subsequent denial of his appeal, James Paxton will leave the Kentucky baseball program to pursue a professional baseball career.

Paxton was never officially suspended by Kentucky for his refusal to meet with the NCAA about eligibility questions stemming from his and advisor Scott Boras' alleged improper negotiations with the Toronto Blue Jays after being selected in the supplemental round last year.  However, Kentucky also wouldn't allow Paxton to play, saying "due to the possibility of future penalties, including forfeiture of games, UK could not put the other 32 players of the team and the entire UK 22-sport intercollegiate athletics department at risk by having James compete."

James Paxton will leave Kentucky amidst allegations of improper negotiations last summer

It now seems likely that Paxton will pitch for an independent team this spring leading up to the draft.  Aaron Fitt of Baseball America believes that if Paxton is able to pitch well, his draft stock should not be negatively affected much, if at all.  A solid independent season should leave Paxton in the first round discussion.

The Kentucky Court of Appeals denied Kentucky pitcher James Paxton's appeal of a circuit court judge's decision to deny a temporary injunction allowing Paxton to play without being subject to an NCAA interview.

Paxton's advisor, Scott Boras, is being accused of directly contacting the Toronto Blue Jays on Paxton's behalf to negotiate a contract after the Kentucky right-hander was taken in the first round by the Blue Jays.  Such contact would violate Paxton's amateur status under NCAA's regulations and preclude him from playing collegiate baseball.

James Paxton's chances of playing for Kentucky in 2010 seem slim after his appeal was denied

Rick Johnson, Paxton's attorney, wanted to argue that Kentucky's student code of conduct precludes him from having to testify against himself in an NCAA interview.  As such Kentucky would not be allowed to suspend Paxton for refusing the NCAA's interview and he would be eligible to pitch for the wildcats.

"Given that this case was one of first impression and of national importance, and given that it directly addressed whether or not student-athletes are entitled to the same civil rights as everyone else, it is very disappointing that the court of appeals did not even address our constitutional arguments," Johnson said.

It appears unlikely that Paxton, considered a first-round draft pick, will be able to throw for Kentucky in 2010.

Keith Law of espn.com recently scouted Bryce Harper from the College of Southern Nevada and provides his analysis of Harper's professional prospects.

First and foremost, Harper has two undeniable abilities: outstanding raw power and a tremendous throwing arm.  Though he's currently working out some bad habits in his swing, even just a few weeks into his season he's already made noticeable improvement which will help his contact.  Even if he's not a player who hits for average, Law points out that if Harper can hit .250 at the major league level with 30 HRs and throw out 33% of base runners, he'll be a star catcher and thus worth taking with the #1 overall pick. 

Will the Nationals surprise everyone by taking someone other than Harper with the #1 pick?

Almost everyone Law spoke with agreed with his analysis except one scout who said Harper was not in his Top 10 because of concerns about his swing.  While his defense and catching are impressive, if the Nationals do not believe Harper will hit, they shouldn't take him, Law asserts.  More than anything, it's a big risk to take on someone who's going to command far more than his normal draft slot based on his leverage and advisor (Scott Boras).

Alternative to Harper with the number pick start with RHP Jameson Taillon out of The Woodlands HS in Texas.  However, Law points out that no team has taken a high school RHP with the #1 overall pick and does not expect the Nationals to buck that trend.  Collegiate pitching options would be Anthony Ranaudo from LSU or Deck McGuire from Georgia Tech, but both project as #2 pitchers, not #1s.  The Nationals need to make a splash with the #1 pick and Harper is likely their best bet to do so.

The College of Southern Nevada's baseball season started this past weekend and that means the news about 2010's #1 draft prospect, Bryce Harper, will only continue to swell as we head into the heart of the baseball season and then draft season.  Baseball Rumor Mill will keep you up to date on all the news that is written about the phenom.

• CSN head coach Tim Chambers talks about Harper before this weekend's debut in this clip.
• Todd Dewey of the Las Vegas Review-Journal takes a look back and Harper's debut on Friday and his dramatic last at bat.
• Coach Chambers is excited for CSN's season not just because of Harper, but also the talent around him.  CSN is ranked #1 among junior colleges heading into the 2010 season.  BRM took a look at Harper's supporting cast at CSN in a post last year.
• Ray Brewer of the Las Vegas Sun explores Coach Chambers decision not to allow media access to his superstar.  Some think that this tactic is a product of Harper's advisor, Scott Boras, working behind the scenes.  
• Pirates general manager Neal Huntington talked about how raw Harper is as a prospect and is a far bigger risk as the #1 pick than Stephen Strasburg was last year.  

Bryce Harper is sure to generate a lot of news in the coming months

James Paxton's attorneys have filed an appeal of the Kentucky Circuit Court's denial of an injunction against the University of Kentucky.  The request for an injunction was filed as a result of Kentucky's threat to not allow Paxton to play in team games unless he submits to the NCAA's request for an unsupervised interview.  The NCAA is hoping to speak with Paxton after comments by Blue Jays interim president Paul Beeston commented that after drafting Paxton in the 2009 draft, he was unable to speak with him, presumably dealing with Paxton's advisor, Scott Boras, instead. 

James Paxton is looking to play for Kentucky in 2010, not just ride the pine.

Paxton's attorneys are arguing that he should not be forced to testify against himself in a case that could threaten his amateur eligibility.  In a statement issued to the media, Paxton's attorneys said "Make no mistake about it: The Circuit Court found, based upon UK's admissions, that James IS eligible to compete in intercollegiate athletics," Johnson wrote in an e-mail to media on Wednesday afternoon. "However, that court erroneously found that, because the student code of conduct did not apply, James had no due process rights, and therefore that UK could withhold him from competition, in order to extort him to submit to an NCAA interview that it admits it cannot compel him to attend, without any consequence to itself."

This case does not figure to end soon.

Fayette County Circuit Judge James Ishmael denied 2009 first round draft pick James Paxton's injunction against the University of Kentucky.  The school is seeking to prevent Paxton from playing in games during his upcoming senior season after Paxton's refusal to meet with NCAA officials to discuss the events that occurred after he was drafted by the Toronto Blue Jays in June. 

Paxton's amateur status is in jeopardy after Blue Jays interim president Paul Beeston was quoted in a media report as saying that Toronto never had a chance to negotiate with Paxton.  It is presumed that Paxton's advisor, Scott Boras, was the one doing the negotiations, a clear violation of the advisor vs. agent distinction that the NCAA enforces to ensure amateur status for college and high school baseball players. 

Will James Paxton be able to play for Kentucky in 2010?

Paxton's lawyers filled the injunction seeking to bar Kentucky from preventing Paxton from playing in the team's games.  Since the ruling, one of Paxton's attorneys, Rick Johnson, notified the media saying "Friday evening, the court denied my client's motion for a temporary injunction. We have a right to an immediate and accelerated appeal of the denial of the injunction, and we are considering this and other options at the moment."  It seems clear that Paxton has not given up his right to play in the NCAA in 2010.

Paxton figures to be a high draft pick in the upcoming 2010 MLB draft. 

Baseball's general managers gathered recently to discuss possible changes to the MLB Draft system.  While any suggestions must be ratified by the union and nothing is concrete yet, a number of changes were suggested. Buster Olney of espn.com provides us with the highlights.

1. Installation of a slotting system which would predetermine how much a draft pick gets paid based on what position he is selected in.  The hope here is to allow smaller market teams to draft the best talent without fear of a holdout beyond their means to pay the player.
2. As a product of bonus slotting, all players below a certain round would receive the same bonus, regardless of where they were selected.
3. An alternative to a slotting system would be to have a draft budget for each team that they are not allowed to exceed.  The budget would be inversely proportional to a team's finish the previous season with the worst record being allotted the largest budget and the best team the lowest.
4. Opening up draft picks to be able to be traded.  Currently this is not allowed.  By allowing trading, teams that did not want to pay a high draft pick would at least be able to recover the value of that draft pick in a trade.

The impetus behind the changes is that often some of the top talent is sliding in a draft because the teams with the worst records do not or can not afford to pay the top talent.  This is how Rick Porcello fell to the Tigers in the 2007 draft.  It has already been suggested that a player such as Anthony Ranaudo, widely considered a Top 10 pick for the 2010 draft, may slip because his advisor is Scott Boras. 

Will Anthony Ranaudo slip in the draft because teams can not afford to pay him?