San Francisco Giants Rumors

Recently, a number of respected baseball media outlets have released their respective lists of the top number of prospects heading into the 2010 season.  These lists include Keith Law of espn.com's Top 100, Jonathan Mayo's collection of top prospects starting with Scouting the Sally's Top 30, Oriolesprospects.com Top 20, Propects Paradise's Top 30, Camden Crazies Top 25, Dave Barr's Hot Corner Top 20, Prospect Junkie's Top 20, The Cardinal Nation's Top 40, Seth Stohs from sethspeaks.net's Top 20, and Mayo's Top 50.

Obviously this all represents opinion, but to get a better idea of the overall feel of the group Baseball Rumor Mill averaged the Top 20 rankings from all of the lists to come up with an aggregate ranking of the Top 20 prospects heading into 2010. 

The rankings were tabulated only evaluating the Top 20 of each list and a point value was assigned to each rank.  #1 = 20 points, #2 = 19 points, so on down to #20 = 1 point.  If a player was not listed in the Top 20 a NR indication was given and no points were awarded.  The rankings are based on aggregate point totals, though we also did an evaluation of point totals after dropping the highest ranking and lowest ranking.  For instance, Desmond Jennings finished fifth overall in aggregate, but would be tied for 3rd with Buster Posey after dropping each player's highest and lowest ranking.

To view the raw data, click here.

Not surprisingly, Jason Heyward and Stephen Strasburg were significantly ahead of the field at the #1 and #2 spot, respectively.  There seems to be a considerable drop in consensus after either Dustin Ackley at #12 or Madison Bumgarner at #13.  Only ten players received Top 20 votes in all ten rankings.

Without further ado, the aggregate rankings

1. Jason Heyward, OF Atlanta
2. Stephen Strasburg, P Washington
3. Buster Posey, C San Francisco
4. Brian Matsuz, P Baltimore
5. Desmond Jennings, OF Tampa Bay
6. Carlos Santana, C Cleveland
7. Jesus Montero, C New York Yankees
8. Neftali Feliz, P Texas
9. Mike Stanton, OF Florida
10. Pedro Alvarez, 3B Pittsburgh
11. Justin Smoak, 1B Texas
12. Dustin Ackley, OF Seattle
13. Madison Bumgarner, P San Francisco
14. Aroldis Chapman, P Cincinnati
15. Domonic Brown, OF Philadelphia
16. Jeremy Hellickson, P Tampa Bay
17. Martin Perez, P Texas
18. Alcides Escobar, SS Brewers
19. Wade Davis, P Tampa Bay
20. Chris Carter, 1B Oakland

Less than a year after being the #1 draft pick, Strasburg rates as the #2 prospect in baseball

The Rule 5 Draft was held today.  Here are the first round picks. Draft picks are listed by the team making the selection, player name and the team he was selected from.

As a reminder, players selected in the Rule 5 draft must remain on the 25-man roster the entire subsequent season or they are returned to the team from which they were taken.

1. New York Yankees* (from Washington): Jamie Hoffmann, Dodgers
2. Pittsburgh: John Raynor, Marlins
3. Texas^ (from Baltimore): Benjamin Snyder, Giants
4. Kansas City: Edgar Osuna, Braves
5. Cleveland: Hector Ambriz, Diamondbacks
6. Arizona: Zach Kroenke, Yankees
7. New York Mets: Carlos Monasterios, Phillies
8. Florida# (from Houston): Jorge Jiminez, Red Sox
9. San Diego: pass
10. Oakland: Bobby Cassevah, Angels
11. Toronto: Zech Zinicola, Nationals
12. Chicago White Sox: pass
13. Milwaukee: Chuck Lofgren, Indians
14. Chicago Cubs: Mike Parisi, Cardinals
15. Tampa Bay: Armando Zerpa, Red Sox
16. Seattle: Kanekoa Texeira, Yankees
17. Texas: pass
18. Florida: pass
19. San Francisco: Steve Johnson, Orioles
20. St. Louis: Ben Jukich, Reds
21. Colorado: pass
22. Philadelphia: Ken Herndon, Angels
23. Los Angeles Dodgers: pass
24. Boston: pass
25. Los Angeles Angels: pass
26. New York Yankees: pass

* Acquired from Nationals as part of Brian Bruney trade
^ Acquired from Baltimore as part of Kevin Millwood trade
# Acquired from Houston as part of Matt Lindstrom trade

The Tigers, Twins, Braves and Reds did not have picks because their 40 man roster was full.

The number 1 pick of the 2009 Rule 5 Draft, Jamie Hoffmann will now play all of 2010 on the Yankees 25-man roster

The deadline for teams to offer arbitration to free agents was this past Tuesday and Keith Law of espn.com gives us his analysis of teams varying decisions to either offer or decline arbitration with their free agents.

• Billy Wagner was offered arbitration by the Red Sox and then signed with the Braves, giving the Red Sox the 20th overall pick in the 2010 draft along with a compensation pick.  Law loves that decision, but questions the Braves move, wondering how much value they'll get out of Wagner at the expense of the draft picks.  However, it seems likely that the Braves are anticipating losing Rafael Soriano or Mike Gonzalez making the draft picks a wash.  
• The Dodgers did not offer arbitration to Randy Wolf or Orlando Hudson, a clear indication that the team is in desperate financial difficulty and are afraid of the players actually accepting arbitration.  Both are Type A free agents meaning the Dodgers essentially gave up four draft picks if neither signed with LA. 
• Law agreed with the Giants decision not to offer Bengie Molina arbitration and hopes this means that the Buster Posey era - 5th overall pick of the 2008 draft - will start soon.

Is the Buster Posey era beginning in SF?

• Milwaukee did not offer Felipe Lopez arbitration, a curious decision.  Lopez only made $3.5M in 2009, did not have impressive HR, RBI or run totals and is represented by Scott Boras, so it seems unlikely that Lopez would have agreed to arbitration anyway.  Lopez is a Type B free agent and would have netted the Brewers two draft picks. 
• Similarly, the Angels raised some eyebrows by not offering Darren Oliver arbitration.  Oliver had a good year last year, likely would not cost much and as a Type A, if he left, would have netted the Angels two draft picks.  It's good news for Oliver, however, who might have had trouble finding suitors willing to give up a draft pick for him.
• Gregg Zaun and Brian Shouse were both offered arbitration by the Rays who would be ok whether the players accepted or rejected the offer.  Neither would have an unreasonable salary in 2010, but both are Type B free agents and would give the Rays a supplemental draft pick if they left. 
• The Twins have turned a "fringe prospect" into either 1.5 years of Carl Pavano or a half season of Pavano and a sandwich pick in the 2010 draft. 

The Tigers payroll was over $115M in 2009 and despite a competitive playoff run to the very end of the season, the team is looking to pare down its payroll for 2010 and moving Miguel Cabrera could save the team a lot of money.  Detroit has already openly shopped outfielder Curtis Granderson ($23.75M left on his contract from 2010-2012) and pitcher Edwin Jackson (arbitration eligible and due for a big raise) and not recieved too many bites.  Cabrera's contract blows away that of Granderson and Jackson, as he's set to make the following in each year of his deal: 10:$20M, 11:$20M, 12:$21M, 13:$21M, 14:$22M, 15:$22M. 

Despite being owed $126M over the next six years, there will still be interest in Cabrera because of his immense productivity.  Some potentially interested teams include:

Red Sox: David Ortiz and Mike Lowell come off the books after 2010 and if the Red Sox can convince the Tigers to give them some financial relief in 2010, the money might work out.

Angels: When Cabrera was traded from Florida to Detroit, the Angels were heavily involved in the bidding and would be happy to take Cabrera now, two years later.

Mets: With Carlos Delgado's likely departure, the Mets have a hole at first base that Cabrera could fill.

White Sox: Similar to the Red Sox, the White Sox remove Paul Konerko from the books after 2010 and Cabrera would fill in nicely.

Giants: They are in desperate need of offense, but already have two big contracts in Barry Zito and Aaron Rowand and would need to put Pablo Sandoval somewhere.

Mariners: Resigning Felix Hernandez is their priority, but Cabrera would be a big addition to their anemic offense.

Braves: Much like the Giants, they could really use the offensive help, but may lack the financial flexilibity to bring on Cabrera.  Moving Derek Lowe or Javier Vazquez would allieviabe some financial constraints.

Financial reasons will force the Tigers to try and move Miguel Cabrera this off season

A few notes about Jason Bay to pass along.

• On the eve of full free agency, Bay rejected Boston's latest offer: "close to $60M" over 4 years.
• The Yankees do not appear interested in Bay.
• The Angels, on the other hand, have not ruled out looking into acquiring Bay. Matt Holliday, however, does not appear to be on their radar.
• The Giants join the Yankees as being publicly uninterested in Bay.

The market for Jason Bay appears to be narrowing

Let's take a look at a few Matt Holliday rumors before free agency kicks into full gear later tonight.

• Angels owner Arte Moreno told the LA Times that "[Holliday] is not going to be an angel."
• The Giants do not want to be a team that an agent uses as leverage against a serious bidder, so they will be interested in Holliday or Jason Bay.

Where will Matt Holliday land this off season?

Jayson Stark from espn.com has a new article up with plenty of off season rumors.

• Milton Bradley appears to have three different suitors: Rays, Rangers and Jays. However, Bradley is owed $21M over the remainder of his contact, so the Cubs will likely have to take on a bad contract in return.
• The Marlins had discussions about trading Dan Uggla with the Giants and Rangers.
• Rather than bid on Jason Bay or Matt Holliday, the Yankees seem content to try and resign Johnny Damon or Hideki Matsui.
• Derek Lowe's contract is becoming burdensome for the Braves, especially as they look to extend Javier Vazquez. They'll try to move Lowe and hope to get a hitter in return for him.
• The Phillies are considering Placido Polanco, Mark DeRosa and Adrian Beltre at third base.

Johnny Damon is an off season priority for the Yankees

Though John Lackey, Jason Bay and Matt Holliday will dominate the headlines and the dollars this off season, Buster Olney of espn.com breaks down the next tier of free agents who are sure to get plenty of calls when free agency begins on Friday.

Brandon Lyon: Though there are a lot of closers available via free agency, Lyon may be willing to take a set up role and is only a Type B free agent. The Phillies, Angles, Mets and Yankees are all likely to be interested

Mark DeRosa: As a player who can play multiple positions his flexibility is a good fit for the Phillies. His bat is a good fit for any team.

Jermaine Dye: His age, 35, precludes him from being able to command a long term deal, but an AL team might be able to snag a good DH for a short and small contract.

Miguel Tejada: Though he might not be able to play shortstop anymore and would require a move to third base, his 313/340/455 splits are still attractive. Philly and Oakland could be good fits.

Miguel Tejada hopes to get plenty of offers this off season

Nick Johnson: Defense and power are very suspect for Johnson, but his OBP (an absurd .477 in 35 games last year for the Marlins) is still attractive. Offense starved teams like Oakland or San Francisco could be interested.

Coco Crisp: He's unlikely to be an everyday outfield, but his defense and speed are still tremendous and he could be a good platoon outfielder.

JJ Putz: A big market team like the Red Sox (think Billy Wagner), Yankees or Angels might be willing to give Putz a one-year deal despite coming off of injury.

Placido Polanco: His 45 extra base hits along with solid defense at second base will certainly attract suitors.

Rafael Betancourt: If the Rockies offer him arbitration, he becomes a Type A free agent and interest will be minimal. If they don't, look out.

Olney notes at the end of his piece that the rational behind Betancourt also applies to relievers Wagner, Jose Valverde, Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano.

Recent rumors had the Marlins trying to shop all-star second baseman Dan Uggla, but as a third baseman.  While Uggla's bat has never been a problem, his defense is average at best at second base and perhaps he would be less of a liability at third base.  However, Uggla's agent has indicated that the slugging second baseman does not want to change positions.

“Danny Uggla’s been a full-time second baseman for the last four years,” agent Jeff Boris said. “He’s performed exceptionally well at that position. Although he has the athleticism to play other positions, he’s performed remarkably over these four years at second base and there should be no reason to consider a position change at this time.” 

Keith Law of espn.com notes that Uggla has become one of the hottest names on the trade market and the Giants are one team rumored to be interested in acquiring Uggla.  Due to financial constraints, the Marlins are assumed to be interested in moving Uggla, who make $5.35M in 2009 and will likely recieve a raise in arbitration in 2010 and 2011.

Dan Uggla is not known for his defense at second base

What exactly is a "Super 2?"  Players with three years of major league service are eligible for a salary arbitration through six years of major league service when they are granted free agency if they have not agreed to a long-term deal.  However, every year there are a number of players with less than three years, but more than two years of major league service who also quality for arbitration.  These players are known as "Super 2s".

Under the 1990 labor agreement between owners and players, the top 17 percent of players (by service time) with at least two and less than three years of service time are eligible for arbitration - along with players with at least three years but less than six. 

For the 2010 off season, the following players qualify for "Super 2" status: pitcher Tim Lincecum of the Giants, Tampa Bay Rays pitcher Matt Garza, Cubs pitcher Tom Gorzelanny, third baseman Alex Gordon of the Kansas City Royals, Pittsburgh Pirates pitcher Jeff Karstens, Houston Astros outfielder Hunter Pence, Texas Rangers pitcher Dustin Nippert, recently traded Brewers outfielder Carlos Gomez and Cubs infielder Mike Fontenot. 

Fontenot tied with Baltimore Orioles outfielder Adam Jones and Cincinnati Reds pitcher Micah Owings with 2 years and 139 days of major league service.  Fontenot won a tie breaker with Jones and Owings by virtue of service time in each immediately preceding season. 

Arizona third baseman Mark Reynolds likely lost out on a multi-million dollar raise by falling one day short of qualifying as a "Super 2" amassing 2 years and 138 days of major league service.

Tim Lincecum will expect a big raise from arbitration