Roy Halladay
Rumors

Roy Halladay is sure to keep the hot stove stoked all winter long.  Here are today's rumors surrounding the possiblity that the Blue Jays will trade Hallady.

• The Angels have offered Joe Saunders, Erick Aybar and Peter Bourjos to the Blue Jays for Halladay says Bob Elliot of the Toronto Sun.  Jordan Bastian of mlb.com believes that Halladay might not waive his no trade clause to go to Los Angeles.
• Even if they get Halladay, Lyle Spencer of mlb.com reports they might be able to add a second elite pitcher like John Lackey as well.  Angels GM Tony Reagins says that it's "possible, but not likely."
• Jon Heyman of Sports Illustrated notes that the Phillies are in the mix for Halladay.  Jordan Bastain of mlb.com agrees.  Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro, Jr. is playing his cards close to the vest, saying that the Phillies making a trade for a major pitcher is unlikely. 
• Blue Jays general manager Alex Anthopoulos does not believe that Tornoto will move Halladay during the winter meetings.  Buster Olney of espn.com reports that the Jays are still in information gathering mode. 
• The Yankees have inquired about Halladay and and the Blue Jays have reportedly asked for Jesus Montero and either Phil Hughes or Joba Chamberlain and other pieces in return.  Joel Sherman of the New York Post notes that the Yankees are very involved in the Halladay discussions.  The New York/Halladay rumors remind Sherman of the Mark Teixeira situation last year.

Roy Halladay rumors are swirling all over the country

As the Roy Halladay hot stove begins to fire up, the Red Sox hope to take much of the drama out of the situation by acquiring the right handed pitcher before the start of the winter meetings on December 7th, Peter Abraham of The Boston Globe reports.  In return for Halladay, the Jays are reportedly asking for top Sox prospect Casey Kelly and emerging starter Clay Buchholz. 

For the Blue Jays, the move to trade Halladay is not a desire, but more a need based on Halladay's unwillingness to sign an extension with Toronto and hopes to play for a contending team.  With one year left on a three-year, $40M deal that Halladay signed before the 2008 season, the Jays hope to get as much as they can for the perennial Cy Young contender this off season, rather than waiting until July.  They'd also save the $15.75M that Halladay is owed in 2010. 

The Red Sox are not the only team interested in Halladay, not even within their own division.  Despite winning the world series, the Yankees still have holes in their pitching rotation, something they'd be happy to will with Halladay.  The Sox urgency is certainly an effort to get out in front of the Yankees where general manager Brian Cashman is waiting to receive his budget for the 2010 season before making any major moves.  The Blue Jays would likely ask for some of the Yankees top propsects like Austin Jackson or Jesus Montero along with either Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain. 

The Red Sox and Yankees will be in hot pursuit of Roy Halladay this off season

The Angels figure to be another team interested in Halladay if they are unable to retain free agent pitcher John Lackey.

Despite all the drama, espn.com's Buster Olney puts the odds of Halladay being traded at only 50/50.

Plenty of rumors to pass along this morning from Nick Cafardo's article in The Boston Globe. 

• If the Red Sox are able to land John Lackey that could allow them the freedom to trade Clay Buchholz to San Diego for Adrian Gonzalez.
• Speaking of the Red Sox, here's an interesting quote from one AL general manager: "The Red Sox could be the major player this off season if certain things fall together for them.  They still have enough chips in their farm system to make something happen."  Perhaps referring to A-Gone or maybe Roy Halladay.
• The Yankees will be involved in trade discussions for Halladay and seem likely to part with Phil Hughes or Joba Chamberlain.  You have to wonder who the bigger prospect is right now.  Our money is that teams would rather have Hughers over Chamberlain.
• The Twins and Brewers are "very interested" in Carl Pavano.
• John Smoltz is also on Milwaukee's radar, but they'll have competition from the Cardinals, who'd like to see Smoltz return.
• Gary Sheffield would like to return in 2010 and is more flexible about accepting a DH role than in the past.  

John Lackey could be the first domino in a busy off season for the Red Sox

Peter Gammons and Gordon Edes of espn.com give plenty of speculation about how the Red Sox off season will play out.

• Jason Bay is likely to return to the Red Sox for many reasons, but most of all, it's unclear who else will compete with the Red Sox to sign him.  Gammons feels the contract will be in the four years, $64M deal.  Bay recently rejected a four year, $60M-ish deal.  
• Alex Gonzalez seems likely to return to the Red sox, even though they declined his 2010 option.  Marco Scutaro is another option.
• Unless Adrian Gonzalez or Felix Hernandez are available to the Red Sox, a blockbuster trade is unlikely.  Nevertheless, the Red Sox are sure to explore the option of acquiring Roy Halladay again.
• The Red Sox were interested in Cody Ross back in July and may continue to try to acquire the outfielder from the Marlins.  Manny Delcarmen was the rumored compensation for Cody back in July.
• Rich Harden and Ben Sheets are likely free agent targets for the Red Sox.
• While Boston may be a good fit for Aroldis Chapman, neither writer thinks that the Red Sox will make a serious push for him. 

Aroldis Chapman may work well in Boston, but are they interested?

John Lackey is the only top of the rotation starter available in free agency, but that does not mean he'll be the only ace-level pitcher to change teams this off season.  As teams like the Blue Jays and Braves enter rebuilding phases, big names pitchers like Roy Halladay and Javier Vazquez could are viable trade options.  But, which teams would be interested and able to acquire top pitching talent?  Buster Olney of espn.com evaluates:

Milwaukee Brewers

CC Sabathia is an exhibt of both why the Brewers could be looking for a big name pitcher and why they can't afford to get one.  On one had, it was just a year ago that they offered Sabathia $100M in free agency, perhaps enough to land Lackey.  On the other hand, in order to acquire Sabathia, they seriously depleted their farm system and that makes taking a run at Halladay and Vazquez difficult. 

Texas Rangers

Back in July when Roy Halladay rumors were dominating the headlines, the Rangers were one of the most logical choices for Halladay to be traded to, but financial concerns killed any chance of the move going through.  The Rangers have alleviated their financil difficulty (for now, anyway) and still have a wealth of prospects to trade for Halladay or Vazquez.  Olney mentions that there have been rumors of the Braves and Rangers discussing a deal for Vazquez already.  Even if the Rangers do not want to part with their young talent, Lackey could still be an option for a team that seems to be a pitcher away.

Los Angeles Angels

Whether the Angels resign Lackey or not, they will still be below last year's payroll because of the likely departure of a number of free agents, even after the recent Bobby Abreu  resiging.  Talks between the Angels and Lackey seem to be mild at best, but perhaps the Angels are positioned to make an offer for Halladay.  The Blue Jays are known to be looking for middle infield talent and the Angels have plenty.  Any money not spent on Lackey could be used to sign Halladay to a long-term extension. 

Los Angeles Dodgers

The impending divorce of team owners Frank and Jaime McCourt could change everything, but assuming that the finances of the divorce are not worked out this off-season, the Dodgers could really use another pitcher (as evidenced by how much they struggled in the post-season).  The challenge is, can they acquire someone like Halladay or Vazquez without moving Andre Ethier or Matt Kemp who are untouchable.

Will Javier Vazquez be a Brave in 2010?

Though the non-waiver trade deadline has passed, players can still be traded if they clear revocable waivers.  Simply put, if a team puts a player on waivers and no other team puts a claim in on that player, the team is then free to trade that player to another team.  If that player is claimed by another team, however, the first team can either pull that player off of waivers and they will not be able to trade the individual or allow the claiming team to keep the waived player and the claiming team assumes the entire contract responsibility. 

Jon Heyman of si.com broke down the list of players who will likely be put on waivers in to those who are "likely to clear", "could clear" and "unlikely to clear"

Likely To Clear

1. Bronson Arroyo - owed $17 over the remainder of 2009 and 2010
2. Adam Dunn - $12 is coming to him in 2010
3. Jose Guillen - $12 for 2010
4. Aaron Harang - over $25M in 2010 and 2011
5. Adrian Beltre - the remainder of his $12M in 2009
6. Aubrey Huff - the remainder of his $8M in 2009
7. Jason Giambi - the remainder of his $4M for 2009 and a $1.25M buyout for 2010 (or $6.5M contract)
8. Melvin Mora - the remainder of his $9M for 2009.  We already know he's not happy in Baltimore.
9. Juan Cruz - $2.25M in 09, $3.25M in 10, $4M option for 2011 or $500K buyout
10. Ty Wigginton - $2.5M in 09, $3.5M in 2010
11. Miguel Batista - $9M for 2009
12. Ron Mahay - $4M for 2009
13. Willie Bloomquist - $1.4M for 2009, $1.7M for 2010
14. Lyle Overbay - $7M in 2009, $7M in 2010
15. Willy Taveras - $2.25M in 2009, $4M in 2010

Could Clear

1. Jon Garland - remainder of $6.25M for 2009 plus a club buyout of $2.5M buyout for 2010 or a $10M contract
2. Doug Davis - $8.75M for 2009
3. Gil Meche - $22M for 2010 and 2011
4. Alex Rios - a staggering $63.2M from 2010-2014 AND a $1M buyout of a $13.5M club option in 2015.  Hard to imagine anyone taking on this contract or Toronto pulling him back.
5. Carl Pavano - $1.5M for 2009, but contract is LOADED with incentives.
6. Mark Hendrickson - $1.5M for 2009 with $500K in incentives
7. Jhonny Peralta - $3.4M for 2009, $4.6M for 2010, $250K buyout of $7M option for 2011
8. Jamey Carroll - $2.5M for 2009
9. Ron Villone - $600K

Unlikely To Clear

1. Roy Halladay - he wouldn't clear regardless of his contract, but he's owed $14.25M in 2009 and $15.75M for 2010
2. Felix Hernandez - the subject of a deadline blockbuster that never materialized, he's owed just the rest of his $3.8M in 2009, but is arbitration eligible.
3. Heath Bell - another arbitration eligible guy, he's only making $1.225M in 2009
4. Adrian Gonzalez - $3M for 2009 and $4.75M for 2010, he'd be arbitration eligible in 2011 if his team does not pick up his $5.5M option.
5. Marco Scutaro - just $1.1M for 2009, he's due a big raise in free agency for 2010 which is why the Jays would like to move him if possible.  Not likely.
6. Chad Qualls - arbitration guy making $2.5M for 2009
7. Michael Wuertz - only $1.1M, but arbitration eligible
8. Brian Bannister - $1.7M for 2009, but arbitration eligible
9. Josh Willingham - $2.95M for 2009 AND arbitration eligible
10. Gary Sheffield - a $14M salary that the Mets are only paying $400K of
11. David Eckstein - only $850K, but the Padres are trying to trim payroll
12. Jason Frasor - arbitration guy with $1.45M for 2009
13. Mark Teahen - $3.575M arbitration eligible

With the Phillies now out of the hunt for Roy Halladay after acquiring Cliff Lee this afternoon, things should get more interesting in the coming days before Friday's 4pm trade deadline.

• Toronto general manager JP Riccardi believes he'll keep Halladay and try to compete in 2010. He'd have to be "wowed" to move Halladay now. That seems to make the most sense for Toronto at this point.
• The Red Sox appear to be the biggest player left to acquire Halladay. The team is still intent on keeping negotiations open with Toronto, but Ryan Westmoreland, Casey Kelly and Daniel Bard are off limits. One executive feels the Red Sox now have the best chance to acquire Halladay. Rumor has it the Jays have already turned down a Red Sox proposal. Both sides are denying the Clay Buchholz, Michael Bowden and Westmoreland offer for Halladay, but something was declined.
• Halladay will accept a deal to Boston and would consider one to Texas. Remember, Roy has a full no-trade clause, but isn't expected to invoke it if he's traded. If Texas can figure out its financial situation, I still like them the best to acquire Halladay. Everything fits there in terms of need for the player and desperation to win along with ability to add payroll and prospects to move. More than any other team so far, including the Phillies. That's why Lee is in Philadelphia now and not Halladay.
• Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley are non-starters for the Dodgers in terms of acquiring Halladay. I don't think the Blue Jays would even be bold enough to ask for Billingsley.

While all the recent action surrounding the Phillies acquiring a pitcher was with Roy Halladay today they acquired Cliff Lee instead from the Cleveland Indians along with Ben Francisco for minor leaguers Carlos Carasco, Jason Knapp, Lou Marson and Jason Donald reports Jayson Stark of espn.com. 

In recent days most conversation was about the Phillies reluctance to trade Kyle Drabek and the Blue Jays insistence on his inclusion in a deal for Halladay.  The Phillies instead tried to get the Jays to accept JA Happ instead, but the Blue Jays only countered by asking for both players. 

This deal makes a lot more sense for the Phillies who are not desperate to get into the playoff or win a world series.  The team is largely intact from it's world series win last year and should win the NL East at this point.  By trading for Lee, the Phillies not only get to keep Drabek AND Happ, but they save themselves a chunk of change.  Lee is owed the remainder of his $5.75M contract for 2009 and the Phillies will have a $9M option on Lee for 2010.  Halladay, however, is owed the remainder of his $14.25M contract for this season and $15.75M for 2010.

Joel Sherman of the New York Post has a column full of rumors up. 

• As we've heard from multiple sources, the Red Sox and Rays have inquired about Cliff Lee and Victor Martinez from the Indians.  It's likely going to take a big prospect from either team to get a deal done with the Indians and the Rays are willing to trade Wade Davis, but the Sox will not part with Clay Buchholz.
• The Phillies, Brewers and Rangers are all interested in Lee.
• The Giants are interested in Victor Martinez.
• No matter who gets these players an AL executive is "1,000% confident" the Indians will move both to clear payroll.  Everyone is "confident" that Roy Halladay will be traded and the Indians will clear payroll, but when was the last time we've ever had a trade deadline with that much action?  Not to be Debbie Downer, but I wouldn't expect more than one of these guys to be traded.  My money is on Martinez, he's quietly been very average since starting off the season hitting .400.
• Another AL executive believes the Phillies will add some pitcher - Halladay, Lee or perhaps Jarrod Washburn - by Friday.  I'm not sure they're all that excited about parting with JA Happ or Kyle Drabek who would certainly have to be moved to get one of those guys.  Seems like a lot to give up for a team that is likely going to the playoffs already.
• The Padres are worried that Heath Bell could become an expensive closer on a bad team if they don't move him.  The Yankees have been interested for a while now.

Jon Heyman of si.com has a new post up with tons to discuss:

• The Yankees have inquired with Seattle about Jarrod Washburn who is, at present, unavailable.  Unless there are some plans to keep Washburn, I don't see why Seattle wouldn't at least listen.
• Bronson Arroyo has been bandied about as another option for the Yankees, but he's owed the rest of his $9.5M for 2009, $11M for 2010 and a $2M buyout for 2011 (no one is going to bring Arroyo back for $11M in 2011, the other choice).  There was some steam for this rumor earlier today, but it has since been denied. 
• The Dodgers are considering Cleveland's Cliff Lee.  Lee is owed the remainder of his $5.75M for 2009 and an acquiring team would have a $9M club option for 2010 or a $1M buyout.  That's a heckuva lot cheaper than Halladay and he might be easier to resign to a long-term deal anyway.
• The Red Sox keep getting thrown in as players for Roy Halladay, Victor Martinez and Adrian Gonzalez.  All three are players who'd require a significant haul for their respective teams to move. 
• Despite receiving money from MLB to help make payments, the Rangers are not being restricted on adding payroll.  As such, they've been rumored to be interested in Halladay and Lee.  While the financial situation clouds everything, the Rangers are the team I think makes the most sense for Halladay to be moved to for the reasons I outlined when Halladay was initially known to be available.
• After last week's blockbuster trade for Matt Holliday, the Cardinals now have to work hard to extend the slugger.  Holliday's agent is Scott Boras, so that's a long shot.
• The Rockies are interested in finding a reliever.
• Nick Johnson and Josh Willingham were watched by the Giants this past weekend.  We got confirmation today that the Giants have a few bats on their wish list.