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MLB Draft Analysis: Day Two

Earlier we posted Keith Law of espn.com's review of Day One of the 2009 MLB Draft. Let's check in on his thoughts about Day Two.

Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates opened eyes with their controversial pre-draft deal for Tony Sanchez and then took him with the #4 pick of the draft, well ahead of several better talents according to most evaluators. Their approach to the draft was not to spend a lot of money in Round 1, but perhaps splurge a little bit in the later rounds on some talent with higher salary demands than might be normally seen in the later rounds. The Pirates added Jordan Cooper, Zach Van Rosenberg, Colton Cain and Trent Stevenson - all players who feel because of signability concerns.

Oakland Athletics

Hopefully the As are prepared to spend some money on their amateur draft because they grabbed guys who have potential signing issues. Their second round pick was Max Stassi who fell because of the perception that he'll require over draft slot money. The grabbed Ian Krol who was booted from his high school team for some off the field issues and is committed to Arizona and will take some money to wrestle free. Last, but not least, their first round pick was Grant Green who is represented by Scott Boras.

Tampa Bay Rays

Injury questions are a theme of the Rays draft. They grabbed a potential first round pick, Luke Bailey, who fell to them because of Tommy John surgery earlier in the year. Their 10th round pick, Derek Dennis, is kind of an unknown because of how late he blossomed.

Los Angeles Angels

We'll let Keith Law handle this one perfectly "The Angels' draft was all over the place, with toolsy prep bats, big college arms with bad command and some projectable high school arms"

Atlanta Braves

For whatever reason, the Braves have seemingly changed their draft philosophy from an upside-high school based approach to a more conservative college-based one. Their first pick was Mike Minor who, while solid, doesn't project to have much upside. All in all, they didn't take a high schooler until the 10th round. Perhaps they were not interested in the financial commitment high schoolers often require.

 

 

MLB Draft Analysis: Day One

Keith Law of espn.com provided a reaction to the draft picks from Day 1 of the 2009 MLB Draft. For Day 2 analysis, click here.

Best picks of the first round

  • Tyler Matzek, Colorado Rockies, #11 overall: He slid because of signability concerns and the Rockies benefited.
  • Shelby Miller, St. Louis Cardinals, #19 overall: Like Matzek, he fell because of contract demands.
  • Kyle Gibson, Minnesota Twins, #20 overall: The stress fracture in Gibson's throwing arm scared many teams off, but so long as it heals, the Twins got a steal.

Worst picks of the first round

  • Tony Sanchez, Pittsburgh Pirates, #4 overall: It's not that Sanchez is not a first round player, but the Pirates reached too high at #4. The reason was a pre-draft deal that saved the Pirates some money, but they passed on too much talent.
  • Randal Grichuk, Los Angeles Angles, #24 overall: Not even in Law's Top 100
  • Nick Franklin, Seattle Mariners, #27 overall: Franklin does not have much upside along with below average power and mediocre defense at best.

More Thoughts

MLB Draft Analysis: First Round Reaction

Olney On 2009 MLB Draft Signability

Buster Olney of espn.com broke down how signability - the liklihood a player is to sign with the team that drafted him - impacted the 2009 MLB Draft. The question typically refers to how much money a draftee is looking for, but could also mean whether a high school player is likely to break his collegiate commitment to turn pro.

Jacob Turner (#9 to the Tigers), Tyler Matzek (#11 to the Rockies), Aaron Crow (#12 to the Royals after the Nationals were unable to sign him as the #9 pick of the 2008 draft) and Matt Purke (#14 to the Rangers) are all talented players that slipped further than they should have - on talent alone, at least - because of concerns about how much money it was going to take to sign them. This was true when the Padres pass on Justin Verlander for Matt Bush. When the Royals passed on Evan Longoria and Matt Wieters. When 26 teams passed on Rick Porcello who proceeded to sign a $6M+ deal with the Tigers as the 27th pick of the 2007 draft.

The issue, Olney contends, is that because there's no salary structure and MLB teams are prevented from trading draft picks, it is not as simple as the worst teams get the best players because they might not be able to afford them. If was really the only reason there was any speculation that the Mariners were going to pass on Dustin Ackley. If a team picking very high didn't want to spend the $6M it is likely going to take to sign Ackley, their only option was to draft someone who'd sign for less. They can't trade the pick to a team who is interested in signing a player.

This is how we get the Pirates agreeing to a pre-draft deal for Tony Sanchez. Sanchez is likely a fine player, but he is certainly not the 4th best player in the draft. So what's the solution? Not much can happen until the next collective bargaining agreement is renegotiated, but there are hints of interest by the players union as well to create some sort of leveling of the playing field in terms of salary.

On a personal note, something I'm curious to see is how Crow and Tanner Scheppers, guys who did not sign contracts after being drafted in 2008 and subsequently playing independent baseball all year, fare in their 2009 contract negotiations. Perhaps Crow fell because he's still perceived as a tough sign and Scheppers fell because of health concerns, but if both do not see significant financial improvement, how will that impact the willingness of players to hold out this year? Especially for collegiate players who don't have quite the leverage high school players do.

2009 MLB Draft: Analysis Of The Sandwich Picks And Second Round

Jason Churchill of espn.com gives us his thoughts on the sandwich picks (compensation picks in between the first and second round) and the second round selections.

  • Churchill was surprised that James Paxton lasted until the 37th pick by the Blue Jays.
  • Matt Davidson slipped through the draft to the Diamondbacks at #35, but no word on why.
  • Colorado continues to have a nice draft, taking Rex Brothers with #34
  • Tanner Scheppers finally goes off the board at #48 to the Rangers.  Health appears to be a major concern for Scheppers and is likely the reason he fell.  If he's healthy, the Rangers got a steal.  Churchill thinks that Scheppers will be expensive, around $4M, but how much leverage does he really have at this point?
  • Vic Black to the Pirates at #49 is a good fit.
  • Kyle Heckathorn could be up in the majors quicky for the Brewers who took the Kennesaw State product at #47.
  • A potential first round pick, Rich Poythress fell all the way to the Mariners at #51.
  • The same is true for Andrew Oliver who was ranked in the Top 10 in late 2008, but fell to the Tigers at #58.
  • The Red Sox took Alex Wilson with the 77th overall pick.  Wilson missed all of 2008 after Tommy John surgery.
  • The Indians took outfielder Jason Kipnis with the 63rd overall pick, but will likely move him to second base.

2009 MLB Draft: First Round

Here's a review of the first round of the 2009 MLB Draft.

  1. Washington Nationals - Stephen Strasburg, RHP, San Diego State University
  2. Seattle Mariners - Dustin Ackley, OF, UNC
  3. San Diego Padres - Donovan Tate, OF, Cartersville HS, GA
  4. Pittsburgh Pirates - Tony Sanchez, C, Boston College
  5. Baltimore Orioles - Matt Hobgood, RHP, Norco HS, CA
  6. San Francisco Giants - Zach Wheeler, RHP, East Paulding HS, GA
  7. Atlanta Braves - Mike Minor, LHP, Vanderbilt
  8. Cincinnati Reds - Mike Leake, RHP, Arizona State
  9. Detroit Tigers - Jacob Turner, RHP, Westminster Christian Academy, MO
  10. Washington Nationals - Drew Storen, RHP, Stanford
  11. Colorado Rockies - Tyler Matzek, LHP, Capistrano Valley HS, CA
  12. Kansas City Royals - Aaron Crow, LHP, Fort Worth Cats
  13. Oakland As - Grant Green, SS, USC
  14. Texas Rangers - Matt Purke, LHP, Klein HS, TX
  15. Cleveland Indians - Alex White, RHP, UNC
  16. Arizona Diamondbacks - Bobby Borchering, Bishop Verot HS, FL
  17. Arizona Diamondbacks - AJ Pollock, OF, Notre Dame
  18. Florida Marlins - Chad James, LHP, Yukon HS, OK
  19. St. Louis Cardinals - Shelby Miller, RHP, Brownwood HS, TX
  20. Toronto Blue Jays - Chad Jenkins, RHP, Kennesaw State
  21. Houston Astros - Jiovanni Mier, SS, Bonita HS, CA
  22. Minnestoa Twins - Kyle Gibson, RHP, Missouri
  23. Chicago White Sox - Jared Mitchell, CF, LSU
  24. Los Angeles Angels - Randal Grichuk, LF, Lamar Cons HS, TX
  25. Los Angeles Angels - Mike Trout, CF, Millville Sr. HS, NJ
  26. Milwaukee Brewers - Eric Arnett, RHP, Indiana
  27. Seattle Mariners - Nick Franklin, SS, Lake Brantley HS, FL
  28. Boston Red Sox - Reymond Fuentes, CF, Fernando Callejo HS, CA
  29. New York Yankees - Slade Heathcott, OF, Texas HS, TX
  30. Tampa Bay Rays - LeVon Washington, 2B, Buchholz HS, FL
  31. Chicago Cubs - Brett Jackson, CF, University of California - Berkeley
  32. Colorado Rockies - Tim Wheeler, OF, Cal State - Sacramento

Pirates To Select Tony Sanchez With The Fourth Pick Of The 2009 MLB Draft

Keith Law of espn.com is reporting that the Pirates have agreed to a pre-draft deal with Boston College catcher Tony Sanchez

MLB Draft Updates From Law and Churchill

The espn.com draft team of Keith Law and Jason Churchill have five (yes, FIVE!) draft updates for us today.  You can find each of them here, here, here, here and here.  We'll summarize them for you in one convenient location...below.

  • The Pirates are interested in Tony Sanchez, Zach Wheeler, Matt Hobgood and Grant Green.
  • Law likes the following: Wheeler to Baltimore, Tyler Matzek to San Francisco and Alex White to Atlanta. 
  • The Braves like Matt Purke but don't want to pay him over slot.
  • Atlanta's choice is between White and Mike Minor.  Churchill thinks Drew Storen is in the mix at #7 too.
  • The Reds would like Minor, but if the Braves take him Chad Jenkins and Storen are options for them.
  • Jenkins and Storen are also options for the Nationals at #10
  • Churchill says that is Storen gets past the Nationals at #10, he might fall all the way out of the first round.  The Angels and Mariners like him, but likely do not have him high enough on their draft boards to select him in the 20s.  The Twins have some interest in Storen, but prefer Billy Bullock.
  • Bobby Borchering may be the favorite to the Rockies at #11, even over Hobgood.
  • If the Rockies do take Borchering at #11, the Diamondbacks will take AJ Pollock and Matt Davidson with their picks at 16 and 17.
  • If Kansas City takes Mike Leake with #12 - and indications are that they are seriously considering it - Oakland would then choose between Green, Mike Trout and possibly Donovan Tate.
  • Max Stassi worked out for the Red Sox this morning.
  • St. Louis is rumored be interested in Purke.
  • Detroit might not want to spend the money that Purke and Jacob Turner are rumored to be demanding.  If so, Rex Brothers and Chad James become options for them at #9.  The Tigers have also been linked to Borchering, Mike Trout and Reymond Fuentes.
  • The Padres like Donovan Tate at #3, but if they feel they can't afford him, they'll go with Wheeler.  That would mean the Orioles take Hobgood.

Finally, Keith Law's latest Top 15.

  1. Strasburg, Nationals
  2. Dustin Ackley, Mariners
  3. Tate, Padres
  4. Sanchez, Pirates
  5. Wheeler, Orioles
  6. Matzek, Giants
  7. White, Braves
  8. Minor, Reds
  9. Turner, Tigers
  10. Storen, Nationals
  11. Borchering, Rockies
  12. Leake, Royals
  13. Green, As
  14. Shelby Miller, Rangers
  15. Brothers or Eric Arnett, Indians

 

2009 MLB Draft Preview, 6/9: Teams Update

Still more rumors and news floating in about what players teams are zeroing in on for tonight's draft.  Let's take a look.

Bob Elliot "Mocks" The First Round

Bob Elliot of The Toronto Sun put together his predictions for the first round of tonight's draft.  For previous mock drafts, click here.

  1. Stephen Strasburg, Nationals
  2. Dustin Ackley, Mariners
  3. Tyler Matzerk, Padres
  4. Aaron Crow, Pirates
  5. Alex White, Orioles
  6. Zach Wheeler, Giants
  7. Drew Storen, Braves
  8. Mike Minor, Reds
  9. Jacob Turner, Tigers
  10. Chad Jenkins, Nationals
  11. Rex Brothers, Rockies
  12. Grant Green, Royals
  13. Mike Leake, As
  14. Shelby Miller, Rangers
  15. Eric Arnett, Indians
  16. Andrew Oliver, Diamondbacks
  17. Bobby Borchering, Diamondbacks
  18. Mike Trout, Marlins
  19. Tanner Scheppers, Cardinals
  20. AJ Pollock, Blue Jays
  21. Matt Purke, Astros
  22. Wil Myers, Twins
  23. Tony Sanchez, White Sox
  24. Matt Hobgood, Angels
  25. Jeff Malm, Angels
  26. Jared Mitchell, Brewers
  27. Rich Poythress, Mariners
  28. Max Stassi, Red Sox
  29. Donovan Tate, Yankees
  30. Everett Williams, Rays
  31. Slade Heathcott, Cubs
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