Pedro Alvarez Rumors

The 2008 and 2009 drafts were unusually stocked in terms of the quality and quantity of available college bats.  Draft picks from the past two classes including Buster Posey,  Justin Smoak, Pedro Alvarez from 2008 and Dustin Ackley from 2009 all ranked in the Top 20 Aggregate professional prospect rankings.  Gordon Beckham, from 2008, doesn't even qualify as a prospect anymore as he figures to get significant playing time at the major league level for the White Sox this year. 

The 2010 class does not project as well, but Zack Cox and Bryce Brentz remain two bats that are safe picks in the first round.  The issue is the rest of the class.  While Cox and Brentz seem likely to go in the first round, where is the rest of the safe, college bat draft picks that teams who are unsure of high school pitching can rely on? 

"It gives teams more option, more safe options," an NL special assistant said. "We all know how risky it is historically to deal with high school pitching and that college hitters are the best bet. It makes it a tough decision when there aren't enough legit (college hitters) to consider."

Zack Cox figures to be one of a handful of college bats taken early this draft

Both Cox and Brentz figure to be Top 10 draft picks, but still some questions remain about their professional future.  For one, Cox is a draft eligible sophomore, which means he has the ability to return to college for his junior year if he does not like the offer he is getting from whatever team drafts him. 

As for Brentz, he hit 465/535/930 with 28 home runs and 19 doubles in 2009.  One special assistant of a team picking in the Top 10 said "we've already had conversations about this kid and our scouts love him. We're a little afraid he won't be available when we pick. That should tell you something."

Keith Law of espn.com released his preliminary list of the Top 50 draft prospects for MLB's 2010 amateur draft in June.  Law pointed out that the ranking is extremely preliminary with so many schools having not even started play yet, or only just begun.  A number of players on this list haven't even played a game yet. 

Of note is Law's assertion that the talent in 2010, even with Bryce Harper, is well below the 2009 and 2008 drafts which included stars like Stephen Strasburg and Pedro Alvarez. Specifically, college position players and high school shortstops and catchers seem to be particularly thin in 2010.

Perhaps most telling is that word is only Harper and Anthony Ranaudo will be able to command signing bonuses above their typical draft slot based on their ability.  It should make for an interesting draft in terms of the worst teams being able to draft the top talent as players hopefully do not slide because of salary demands.

The list was split evenly between pitchers and position players at 25 a piece.  Besides Harper and Ranaudo, Jameson Taillon (3) is the highest ranked pitcher while Austin Wilson (5) is the highest ranked position player at. 

Law has 27 high school players on the list vs. 23 collegiate players.  Taillon is the highest ranked high school pitcher followed by AJ Cole (6), while Wilson and then Josh Sale (9) are the highest ranked high school position players

AJ Cole found himself #6 in Keith Law's preliminary rankings

After Harper and Ranaudo, Deck McGuire (4) is the highest ranked college pitcher while outfielder Bryce Brentz comes in at #7

Other players of note include Alex Wimmers  (8), Brandon Workman (16), Jake Hernandez (26), Vincent Velasquez (31) and Jarrett Parker rounding out the top 50.

Recently, a number of respected baseball media outlets have released their respective lists of the top number of prospects heading into the 2010 season.  These lists include Keith Law of espn.com's Top 100, Jonathan Mayo's collection of top prospects starting with Scouting the Sally's Top 30, Oriolesprospects.com Top 20, Propects Paradise's Top 30, Camden Crazies Top 25, Dave Barr's Hot Corner Top 20, Prospect Junkie's Top 20, The Cardinal Nation's Top 40, Seth Stohs from sethspeaks.net's Top 20, and Mayo's Top 50.

Obviously this all represents opinion, but to get a better idea of the overall feel of the group Baseball Rumor Mill averaged the Top 20 rankings from all of the lists to come up with an aggregate ranking of the Top 20 prospects heading into 2010. 

The rankings were tabulated only evaluating the Top 20 of each list and a point value was assigned to each rank.  #1 = 20 points, #2 = 19 points, so on down to #20 = 1 point.  If a player was not listed in the Top 20 a NR indication was given and no points were awarded.  The rankings are based on aggregate point totals, though we also did an evaluation of point totals after dropping the highest ranking and lowest ranking.  For instance, Desmond Jennings finished fifth overall in aggregate, but would be tied for 3rd with Buster Posey after dropping each player's highest and lowest ranking.

To view the raw data, click here.

Not surprisingly, Jason Heyward and Stephen Strasburg were significantly ahead of the field at the #1 and #2 spot, respectively.  There seems to be a considerable drop in consensus after either Dustin Ackley at #12 or Madison Bumgarner at #13.  Only ten players received Top 20 votes in all ten rankings.

Without further ado, the aggregate rankings

1. Jason Heyward, OF Atlanta
2. Stephen Strasburg, P Washington
3. Buster Posey, C San Francisco
4. Brian Matsuz, P Baltimore
5. Desmond Jennings, OF Tampa Bay
6. Carlos Santana, C Cleveland
7. Jesus Montero, C New York Yankees
8. Neftali Feliz, P Texas
9. Mike Stanton, OF Florida
10. Pedro Alvarez, 3B Pittsburgh
11. Justin Smoak, 1B Texas
12. Dustin Ackley, OF Seattle
13. Madison Bumgarner, P San Francisco
14. Aroldis Chapman, P Cincinnati
15. Domonic Brown, OF Philadelphia
16. Jeremy Hellickson, P Tampa Bay
17. Martin Perez, P Texas
18. Alcides Escobar, SS Brewers
19. Wade Davis, P Tampa Bay
20. Chris Carter, 1B Oakland

Less than a year after being the #1 draft pick, Strasburg rates as the #2 prospect in baseball

Keith Law from espn.com gave us his new Top 10.  For previous Top 10s and predictions from Keith Law and others, click here.

1. Stephen Strasburg, Nationals
2. Dustin Ackley, Mariners
3. Donovan Tate, Padres
4. Tony Sanchez, Pirates
5. Aaron Crow, Orioles
6. Tyler Matzerk, Giants
7. Zach Wheeler, Braves
8. Tanner Scheppers, Reds
9. Jacob Turner, Tigers
10. Chad Jenkins, Nationals.

Notes

• Law does not like Mike Minor to the Padres at #3.  Jonathan Mayo does.  
• Yesterday, Jason Churchill of espn.com passed along the rumor that Ackley was going to ask for money money than Pedro Alvarez.  Keith Law hasn't found any verification of this rumor.
• Kyle Gibson's lower velocity in his most recent outing is due to "forearm stiffness" which is what the young pitcher told Law.  A number of teams have backed off because of it.  
• The Rockies appear to be very interested in high school pitcher Matt Hobgood, but more likely with the 32nd pick and not the 11th.  Tim Wheeler or Alex White seem like their preference with 11.
• High schooler Max Walla seems to be an option for the Angles with one of their sandwich picks.
• Jake Stewart is a favorite of Tampa Bay, Kansas City and Philadelphia.
• The Reds, Tigers and Rangers continue to scout Scheppers heavily.

A number of links to pass along regarding specific teams

• The Pirates will not let Scott Boras's presence as a prospects advisor influence their decision to draft a player.  The Pirates have the #4 pick in the upcoming draft and are determined to sign their draftee in a far faster manner than they did with Pedro Alvarez last year, a Boras client.  Boras represents Stephen Strasburg, Dustin Ackley, Donovan Tate, Jacob Turner and Grant Green.  Strasburg and Ackley are unlikely to get to the Pirates and none of the mock drafts that we've seen so far have the Pirates reaching for Turner or Green.
• The Angels have five picks before the second round and are likely to take some chances with those picks.  The Angels first picks are picks #24 and #25 where Kieth Law of espn.com had them selecting Billy Bullock and Reymond Fuentes.  The Angels have been looking at Mike Trout (Law has him going to the White Sox at #23) as well as Everett Williams, Jiovanni Mier and Tyler Skaggs.  The Angels have a history of selecting high school players with high upside and with so many picks in the opening round, they're likely to do that again.
• The Padres pick third and have five players on their draft board: Strasburg, Ackley, Zach Wheeler, Aaron Crow and Mike Minor.  They're unlikely to get Strasburg or Ackley, so they'll likely have to settle for one of the aforementioned pitchers, something they're happy with.  
• Strasburg isn't talking about the draft, but focusing on the finish of his collegiate career.

John Perotto (writes for Baseball America, MLB, Baseball Prospectus, etc) put up a post today evaluating the Pirates options with the 4th pick in the 2009 MLB Draft. Stephen Strasburg is the obvious #1 choice for the Nationals and Dustin Ackley is quickly becoming the consensus #2 choice for the Mariners. If, for some reason, Ackley didn't go to Seattle, surely the Padres would grab him with the third pick.

Almost regardless of who is selected besides Strasburg and Ackley, the Pirates have plenty of options. Perotto reports that "someone with direct knowledge of their thinking said earlier this week that their camp is divided between taking a college pitcher who could get to the major leagues quickly or going for a high school position player with high upside." The Pirates do not figure, however, to pay their draft pick over the suggested slot money, as they did with Pedro Alvarez last year.

The college player the Pirates figure to be most interested in is Kyle Gibson, but they are also serious about Aaron Crow as well (Crow is not technically a college pitcher as he plays professionally for the Fort Worth Cats, but he's not a high school pitcher and that's the point).

On the other end of the spectrum, high school positional players with high upside that the Pirates are considering are 3B Bobby Borchering from Bishop Verot HS, FL or Wil Myers a catcher from Wesleyan Christian HS, NC. Keith Law had the Pirates taking Borchering in his mock draft.

Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports and Peter Gammons of espn.com each wrote articles recently about Stephen Strasburg and Dustin Ackley, the presumd #1 and #2 picks of the draft, respectively.

To read Passan's article, click here.

The Nationals have the #1 pick in the upcoming 2009 MLB Draft and general manager Mike Rizzo does not believe that any member of the 2009 draft class will play in the majors this season.  “I don’t see that in this year’s draft,” Rizzo said. “It’s such an acclimation process for a pitcher to go through, and it’s so very, very difficult, I just can’t see someone doing it.”  While Rizzo did not specifically mention Strasburg, the implication is obvious as he is the only player who anyone feels this would even be possible for.  The only realistic way that Strasburg could see the big leagues in 2009 is if his advisor, Scott Boras, somehow weaves a guaranteed call up into his contract, which some expect to approach $20M. 

To read Gammons article, click here.

We've heard many of the accolades heaped on Ackley to this point and have debated the question of whether he's a first baseman or a centerfielder.  While most suspect that he'll be an outfielder in the major leagues, his coach at UNC insists that, with enough time, he could play second base.  This is music to the ears of Mariners Jack Zduriencik who's club holds the #2 pick in the upcoming draft.  Gammons distinguishes Ackley from the prime bat of the 2008 class, Pedro Alvarez, who, after a protracted contract hold out, finally signed with the Pirates and is hitting .209 in the Carolina League.  Ackley seems to have the same "look" that is often evoked from players like Derek Jeter, Joe Mauer and David Wright.

Busy day for Jason Churchill over at espn.com.  He posted this article earlier in the day and then had a big update from Friday night action:

• Alex White, Rex Brothers, Kyle Gibson, Kyle Heckathorn, Andrew Oliver, Brooks Raley and AJ Morris all had a chance to impress scouts Friday night and none delivered. 
• Concensus #1 pick Stephen Strasburg did, however, throwing a no-hitter at Air Force with 17Ks.  Strasburg is now 11-0 with a 1.24 ERA and a 164-17 K/BB ratio.
• White remains a top 10 prospect, but he's had two consecutive poor outings and has not been sharp.
• While Brothers struck out 9 over 7 IP, giving up 4ER in the Atlantic Sun conference is not helping his cause because of the perceived inferior competition.  He could go in the first round, but still lingers behind a number of quality pitchers in bigger conferences which may cause him to fall to the compensatory round.
• Similarly, Gibson struck out 8 over 8IP, but also gave up four runs against Kansas.  Churchill thinks that a better performance could have launched him into the top 10.  As it is, he could go as high as #3 to San Diego or #4 to Pittsburgh.  Gibson could be especially appealing to Pittsburgh considering his signability and the difficulty they had with Pedro Alvarez last year.
• Playing in the Florida Gulf Coast league, Heckathorn needed to be better than allowing 3ER over 6IP and 9 hits.  He also needed 117 pitches to get through the six innings.  Scouts are still enamored with his size (6'6", 235 pounds), but he needs to dominate more.
• While continuing to be inconsistent, Oliver should still end up in the 1st round.
• Raley had his worth outing of the year, pretty much cementing that he will not go in the first two rounds.  Churchill feels that if he does fall out, he should return to Texas A&M for his junior season.
• Unlike the aforementioned, Mike Leake had a great start, striking out 8 hitters in 7IP and allowing just one unearned run.  He's unlikely to last past the middle of the first round.

In the wake of yesterday's news that Pedro Alvarez and the Pittsburgh Pirates had re-agreed to a contract, word today is that an agreement has been reached in the grievence which allows Alvarez and Eric Hosmer to return to their teams.  Another key term of the agreement is that contract negotiation extensions of the Aug 15th deadline can only be approved by BOTH the commissioners office and the MLBPA. 

Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports today that Scott Boras and Alvarez were in Pittsburgh this morning and that a contract was signed this evening.  Alvarez and Boras held a conference call for the media after the signing and Alvarez said that:

"Throughout this whole process, I, myself, wanted a fair trial, a fair negotiation. I wanted everything to play itself out. I thought for myself and made decisions for myself.  I just want the fans of Pittsburgh to judge me as the professional player that I am now, to judge me on the player that I am. I will work my hardest to be the best player I can be, to be a leader on and off the field in the community."

More details from the Pedro Alvarez signing are coming out from reports by Jim Callis of Baseball America and Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. 

• Bud Selig's testimony apparently encouraged Scott Boras and the Pirates to touch base regarding a renegotation of the deal.  Considering Frank Coonelly's stance that the team would not change the terms of the deal, but did, it seems reasonable to assume that Selig's testimony was not beneficial to the Pirates case.
• While the total of the deal is higher than originally negotiated ($6.335M vs. $6M) because the bonus is now spread out over four years instead of two, the present day value, $5.67M is actually lower.