MLB Draft Rumors

Here's a review of on-field hitting performances by notable 2010 draft prospects for February 28th through March 5th.

Tyler Holt: The outfielder from Florida State walked twice, stole his second base and scored against Hofstra on 2/28.  Holt finally struck out on 3/2, three times, but also added two hits.

Cameron Rupp: Texas' first baseman had a single and a walk vs. Stanford on 2/28 to raise his numbers to .364/.533/.455.  Cameron finally hit his first home run of the season on Tuesday.

Micah Gibbs: The LSU catcher hit a double and three singles, walked, had a RBI and stole a base in Sunday's Game 1 win over William & Mary.  Went 0-fer in Game 2.

Micah Gibbs

Leon Landry: Gibbs' outfield teammate at LSU went 3-for-7 in the double header with five stolen bases on the day. 

Andy Wilkins: Arkansas' first baseman had two hits prompting a scout to say "I learned...this weekend [that] Wilkins can hit."  On Tuesday, Wilkins had two doubles in three at-bats, raising his batting average to .435.  On Friday, Wilkins went 2-for-4 with a homerun against Cal.

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Pepperdine's Cole Cook had a successful outing recently against the #2 team in the country, LSU. Although Cook took the loss, dropping his record to 0-2 on the season, and yielded three earned runs, he still threw effectively.  Cook's line was very respectable 7IP, 7H, 1BB, 3ER and 9K - especially against one of the top teams in the country.

Cole has been known to struggle maintaining his velocity late into games, but his last pitch was a 92 mph fastball, not much of a dip from where he threw all day.  His fastest pitch was recorded at 94.  "Better, I'd say, and maybe that's a matter of how early in the season it was for him," an NL club's area scout said.

Pepperdine's Cole Cook had a solid outing against #2 LSU

"He was aggressive," the scout said. "This was a nice test and he didn't back down. I had him in the low-90s for much of the game, and by my count his last fastball there (in the seventh inning) was 92. But the key for him was the split, it was very effective. And he was much better at avoid the middle of the plate, and for the most part kept the ball in the lower half of the zone."

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Often considered the unanimous #1 pick in the 2010 draft, some scouts still express concerns about Bryce Harper's professional future.  Buster Olney of ESPN.com recently made the decision to draft Harper with the first overall pick (or even a high draft pick) to the debate many NFL scouting directors are having trying to evaluate Tim Tebow's professional prospects. 

Unlike with Stephen Strasburg last year who was the best pitching prospect, well, ever, Harper (and Tebow) present a more difficult challenge.  How do you rectify someone who has such incredible physical ability with possible major mechanical flaws?  Sure, these flaws have not manifested themselves yet in their respective competition level, but will they be able to "get away with it" at the professional level?  Right now many are saying that Harper, because of his young age, will either be able to mature out of his flaws or correct them.  Tebow is a more difficult project.

Bryce Harper hits tape measure home runs right now, but will he as a pro?

No one questions Harper's bat speed, but already the whispers are growing that he strikes out far more often than someone of his ability should at the junior college level.  Despite hitting a respectable .408 early in the season for the College of Southern Nevada, he has 17 strike outs in 71 at-bats.  Scouts are concerned with Harper's lower body when he swings and some have noted that it is a violent swing - different from Joe Mauer when he was the #1 pick back in 2001.

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ESPN.com's Keith Law had a few comments and observations to pass along about some west coast, collegiate prospects.

Rob Brantly: A catcher from UC-Riverside, if Brantley can convince professional scouts that he can stay behind the plate, he has a chance to be selected in the first round.  He'll likely have to improve the lower body portion of his swing, but he has the potential to hit for power and a high average. 

Kevin Rhoderick: Retired all five batters he faced in an impressive performance.  Though his velocity was down to 90-92 from his normal range of 92-94, he demonstrated a really nice changeup with "hard fading action" that kept hitters off balance. 

Kevin Rhoderick could be a solid reliever as a professional

Jordan Swagerty: Though he moonlighted as a catcher last year when he wasn't on the mound, his professional prospects appear to be best while toeing the rubber.  Throwing in relief, Swagerty was 91-94 with his fastball and 78-85 with his curveball.

Though the 2010 college baseball season has only just begun, the early performances of a few players will only help their draft stock. Here's a look at some of the top performers so far:

Jedd Gyorko: He's hitting .370/.485/.741 with six extra-base hits and a 6 to 1 BB/K ratio in his first seven games.  While he's glove at shortstop is not professional quality, some team will find a place for his bat in their organization.

Tyler Holt: Sports an impressive .545 OBP through his first seven games.  Though he struck out three times in his last game, it was the first time he had struck out all season.

Andy Wilkins: So far he has hit three home runs and three doubles while walking ten times and hitting .435.  "He can hit the fastball, that's for sure," said an area scout. "But I think anyone will tell you that he's got to prove himself in the SEC to make a move (up the draft boards)."

Andy Wilkins hopes his early season performance will move him up draft boards

Cameron Rupp: He has reached base in 17 of his 34 plate appearances for an impressive .500 OBP, but hit just his first home run the other day and has nine strikeouts already.

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The 2010 high school pitching class is very talented and most of the talk has been centered around possible Top 5 pick, Jameson Taillon.  However, as Jason Churchill from espn.com points out, there are a number of other high school pitchers who could be selected in the first round.  One player who is threatening to break into the Top 10 along with Taillon is Karsten Whitson.

Though he took the loss in his first start of the season, Whitson struck out the side in the first two innings and threw his fastball 94-92, touched 96 and has a sharp slider.  "He was pretty much as advertised," said the scout who watched the outting. "The fastball was consistent, and he worked both sides."

Karsten Whitson could be a Top 10 pick in June

Other possible high school pitchers would could be taken in the first round include:

• AJ Cole, Ovideo High School, FL: Sits comfortably in the low 90s and has touched as high as 96 mph. He combines athleticism, velocity and movement with a decent curveball and developing change to dominate high school hitters
• Dylan Covey, Marantha High School, GA: Covey has one of the best breaking balls in the 2010 class; a sharp breaker with excellent depth and well above average velocity in the 78-81 mph range.

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In a match up of two of the best prospects for 2011, UCLA's Gerrit Cole out-pitched Vanderbilt's Sonny Gray.  UCLA won the game 9-2 as Cole moved to 2-0 while Gray took the loss for Vanderbilt.

Cole's pitching line was decent - 5IP, 4H, 2BB, 2ER, 8K.  Gray, on the other hand, struggled allowing five earned runs on seven hits and two walks over 4.1 innings pitched, though he did manage six strikeouts.  As Jason Churchill from espn.com points out, neither pitcher threw particularly well. 

Gerrit Cole out-dueled Sonny Gray in a match up of two top 2011 prospects

Keith Law of espn.com recently annoited Anthony Rendon the (very early) top ranked player of the 2011 draft class.  Here's a quick look at some other top players for 2011 (in no particular order).

• Gerrit Cole: Tall righty whose fastball sits around 94-95 mph and tops out at 96. Also mixes in an above aberage low 80s slider and a 80 mph changeup. Smooth, effortless delivery. Aggresive with the strike zone.
• Taylor Jungmann: His fastball sits in the low-90s and can touch 95. He also shows the foundation for a knock-out slider and a plus-changeup. His mechanics need some work, as he can get a little out of rhythm at times making his delivery look like his arms and legs are all over the place, but that’s nothing a little refining and maturation at the next level can’t cure.
• Danny Hultzen: Very athletic lefty. Throws upper 80s will touch low 90s occasionally. Real nice breaking ball and can hit his spots. He's a legit pitcher with a deceptive motion.  His curve was also an above-average second pitch. He spins a tight breaking pitch, and also mixes in a changeup and a split finger pitch as well.
• Jack Armstrong: He has many things going for him: big league lineage (his dad, Jack, was a Major League pitcher), athleticism (he's a legitimate college basketball prospect) and a tall and lean projectable frame. He's also shown two good offerings he can throw for strikes.  He's got some life to the fastball, with some sink down in the zone.

Jack Armstrong could be a Top 10 draft pick in 2011

• Sonny Gray: Gray is a phenomenal athlete with tremendous pure stuff. He displays one of the easiest arm actions around, with a whip-like delivery that allows him to touch the mid-90s with ease, sitting in the low-90s deep into ballgames. He also throws a nasty slider that has touches the mid-80s on occasion, a pitch that is virtually unhittable when it is working as it well as it often does.
• Alex Meyer: A 6-foot-9, 220-pound right-hander who possesses electric stuff, including a high-velocity fastball and an excellent curveball, with his changeup and two-seam fastball developing.

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Keith Law from espn.com believes that the 2011 draft is loaded with talent - similar to 2008 and 2009 - something that 2010 will lack, despite its top heavy nature with Bryce Harper.  Even with a number of quality players who could compete to be the top pick, Law believes that Rice third baseman Anthony Rendon is already separating himself from the pack as the best player in the 2011 draft class.

With respect to his ability to hit, Law had the following observations: "[Rendon] has one of the best swings I've seen on a college hitter, with excellent hip rotation and strong, quick hands. He pairs it with good pitch recognition and a patience that's born both of a good eye and the fact that opposing pitchers don't want to pitch to him right now. He taps his front foot twice and gets it down a little late, but everything about his transfer and swing is quick and forceful enough that it doesn't seem to affect him against college pitching. His plate coverage is good, and he can shorten his swing to square up a ball up in the zone."

Anthony Rendon is the early favorite for "one-one" status in 2011

Currently, Rendon is a third baseman with an above-average arm and "good reads."  There's speculation that Rendon might physically develop too much to play third base professionally and would have to move to first base, but Law isn't worried about that right now.

After unsuccessful attempts at an injunction against Kentucky to bar the university from preventing him from playing and subsequent denial of his appeal, James Paxton will leave the Kentucky baseball program to pursue a professional baseball career.

Paxton was never officially suspended by Kentucky for his refusal to meet with the NCAA about eligibility questions stemming from his and advisor Scott Boras' alleged improper negotiations with the Toronto Blue Jays after being selected in the supplemental round last year.  However, Kentucky also wouldn't allow Paxton to play, saying "due to the possibility of future penalties, including forfeiture of games, UK could not put the other 32 players of the team and the entire UK 22-sport intercollegiate athletics department at risk by having James compete."

James Paxton will leave Kentucky amidst allegations of improper negotiations last summer

It now seems likely that Paxton will pitch for an independent team this spring leading up to the draft.  Aaron Fitt of Baseball America believes that if Paxton is able to pitch well, his draft stock should not be negatively affected much, if at all.  A solid independent season should leave Paxton in the first round discussion.