Milwaukee Brewers Rumors

Recently, a number of respected baseball media outlets have released their respective lists of the top number of prospects heading into the 2010 season.  These lists include Keith Law of espn.com's Top 100, Jonathan Mayo's collection of top prospects starting with Scouting the Sally's Top 30, Oriolesprospects.com Top 20, Propects Paradise's Top 30, Camden Crazies Top 25, Dave Barr's Hot Corner Top 20, Prospect Junkie's Top 20, The Cardinal Nation's Top 40, Seth Stohs from sethspeaks.net's Top 20, and Mayo's Top 50.

Obviously this all represents opinion, but to get a better idea of the overall feel of the group Baseball Rumor Mill averaged the Top 20 rankings from all of the lists to come up with an aggregate ranking of the Top 20 prospects heading into 2010. 

The rankings were tabulated only evaluating the Top 20 of each list and a point value was assigned to each rank.  #1 = 20 points, #2 = 19 points, so on down to #20 = 1 point.  If a player was not listed in the Top 20 a NR indication was given and no points were awarded.  The rankings are based on aggregate point totals, though we also did an evaluation of point totals after dropping the highest ranking and lowest ranking.  For instance, Desmond Jennings finished fifth overall in aggregate, but would be tied for 3rd with Buster Posey after dropping each player's highest and lowest ranking.

To view the raw data, click here.

Not surprisingly, Jason Heyward and Stephen Strasburg were significantly ahead of the field at the #1 and #2 spot, respectively.  There seems to be a considerable drop in consensus after either Dustin Ackley at #12 or Madison Bumgarner at #13.  Only ten players received Top 20 votes in all ten rankings.

Without further ado, the aggregate rankings

1. Jason Heyward, OF Atlanta
2. Stephen Strasburg, P Washington
3. Buster Posey, C San Francisco
4. Brian Matsuz, P Baltimore
5. Desmond Jennings, OF Tampa Bay
6. Carlos Santana, C Cleveland
7. Jesus Montero, C New York Yankees
8. Neftali Feliz, P Texas
9. Mike Stanton, OF Florida
10. Pedro Alvarez, 3B Pittsburgh
11. Justin Smoak, 1B Texas
12. Dustin Ackley, OF Seattle
13. Madison Bumgarner, P San Francisco
14. Aroldis Chapman, P Cincinnati
15. Domonic Brown, OF Philadelphia
16. Jeremy Hellickson, P Tampa Bay
17. Martin Perez, P Texas
18. Alcides Escobar, SS Brewers
19. Wade Davis, P Tampa Bay
20. Chris Carter, 1B Oakland

Less than a year after being the #1 draft pick, Strasburg rates as the #2 prospect in baseball

The Boston Red Sox and Seattle Mariners finalized their trade sending Casey Kotchman to the west coast for Bill Hall, a Minor League player to be named and cash.  Hall is a versatile slugger who will be able to fill any defense gap for the Sox.  In 2009 Hall began the season with the Brewers and finished with the Mariners. Hall started 51 games at third base, 22 games in left field, 12 games in right field, two at second base and one in center field.

Last year Hall, 30, batted .201 (67-for-334) with eight home runs and 36 RBI in 110 games between Milwaukee and Seattle. If Hall can regain his form at the plate, career-high 35 homers in 2006, he may be an extremely pinch-hitter for Boston.

Kotchman was displaced from the infield rotation when the Sox aquired third baseman Adrian Beltre but is expected to start at first base in Seattle. Last year Kotchman, 26, batted .268 (103-for-385) with seven home runs and 48 RBI in 126 games between Atlanta and Boston.

The Rule 5 Draft was held today.  Here are the first round picks. Draft picks are listed by the team making the selection, player name and the team he was selected from.

As a reminder, players selected in the Rule 5 draft must remain on the 25-man roster the entire subsequent season or they are returned to the team from which they were taken.

1. New York Yankees* (from Washington): Jamie Hoffmann, Dodgers
2. Pittsburgh: John Raynor, Marlins
3. Texas^ (from Baltimore): Benjamin Snyder, Giants
4. Kansas City: Edgar Osuna, Braves
5. Cleveland: Hector Ambriz, Diamondbacks
6. Arizona: Zach Kroenke, Yankees
7. New York Mets: Carlos Monasterios, Phillies
8. Florida# (from Houston): Jorge Jiminez, Red Sox
9. San Diego: pass
10. Oakland: Bobby Cassevah, Angels
11. Toronto: Zech Zinicola, Nationals
12. Chicago White Sox: pass
13. Milwaukee: Chuck Lofgren, Indians
14. Chicago Cubs: Mike Parisi, Cardinals
15. Tampa Bay: Armando Zerpa, Red Sox
16. Seattle: Kanekoa Texeira, Yankees
17. Texas: pass
18. Florida: pass
19. San Francisco: Steve Johnson, Orioles
20. St. Louis: Ben Jukich, Reds
21. Colorado: pass
22. Philadelphia: Ken Herndon, Angels
23. Los Angeles Dodgers: pass
24. Boston: pass
25. Los Angeles Angels: pass
26. New York Yankees: pass

* Acquired from Nationals as part of Brian Bruney trade
^ Acquired from Baltimore as part of Kevin Millwood trade
# Acquired from Houston as part of Matt Lindstrom trade

The Tigers, Twins, Braves and Reds did not have picks because their 40 man roster was full.

The number 1 pick of the 2009 Rule 5 Draft, Jamie Hoffmann will now play all of 2010 on the Yankees 25-man roster

The deadline for teams to offer arbitration to free agents was this past Tuesday and Keith Law of espn.com gives us his analysis of teams varying decisions to either offer or decline arbitration with their free agents.

• Billy Wagner was offered arbitration by the Red Sox and then signed with the Braves, giving the Red Sox the 20th overall pick in the 2010 draft along with a compensation pick.  Law loves that decision, but questions the Braves move, wondering how much value they'll get out of Wagner at the expense of the draft picks.  However, it seems likely that the Braves are anticipating losing Rafael Soriano or Mike Gonzalez making the draft picks a wash.  
• The Dodgers did not offer arbitration to Randy Wolf or Orlando Hudson, a clear indication that the team is in desperate financial difficulty and are afraid of the players actually accepting arbitration.  Both are Type A free agents meaning the Dodgers essentially gave up four draft picks if neither signed with LA. 
• Law agreed with the Giants decision not to offer Bengie Molina arbitration and hopes this means that the Buster Posey era - 5th overall pick of the 2008 draft - will start soon.

Is the Buster Posey era beginning in SF?

• Milwaukee did not offer Felipe Lopez arbitration, a curious decision.  Lopez only made $3.5M in 2009, did not have impressive HR, RBI or run totals and is represented by Scott Boras, so it seems unlikely that Lopez would have agreed to arbitration anyway.  Lopez is a Type B free agent and would have netted the Brewers two draft picks. 
• Similarly, the Angels raised some eyebrows by not offering Darren Oliver arbitration.  Oliver had a good year last year, likely would not cost much and as a Type A, if he left, would have netted the Angels two draft picks.  It's good news for Oliver, however, who might have had trouble finding suitors willing to give up a draft pick for him.
• Gregg Zaun and Brian Shouse were both offered arbitration by the Rays who would be ok whether the players accepted or rejected the offer.  Neither would have an unreasonable salary in 2010, but both are Type B free agents and would give the Rays a supplemental draft pick if they left. 
• The Twins have turned a "fringe prospect" into either 1.5 years of Carl Pavano or a half season of Pavano and a sandwich pick in the 2010 draft. 

Plenty of rumors to pass along this morning from Nick Cafardo's article in The Boston Globe. 

• If the Red Sox are able to land John Lackey that could allow them the freedom to trade Clay Buchholz to San Diego for Adrian Gonzalez.
• Speaking of the Red Sox, here's an interesting quote from one AL general manager: "The Red Sox could be the major player this off season if certain things fall together for them.  They still have enough chips in their farm system to make something happen."  Perhaps referring to A-Gone or maybe Roy Halladay.
• The Yankees will be involved in trade discussions for Halladay and seem likely to part with Phil Hughes or Joba Chamberlain.  You have to wonder who the bigger prospect is right now.  Our money is that teams would rather have Hughers over Chamberlain.
• The Twins and Brewers are "very interested" in Carl Pavano.
• John Smoltz is also on Milwaukee's radar, but they'll have competition from the Cardinals, who'd like to see Smoltz return.
• Gary Sheffield would like to return in 2010 and is more flexible about accepting a DH role than in the past.  

John Lackey could be the first domino in a busy off season for the Red Sox

The early serious bidders for John Lackey appear to be the Angles, Red Sox and Mets so far.  Buster Olney from espn.com heard that the Angels most recent offer to Lackey was a multi-year contract for a total of $72M. 

Though the Red Sox have plenty of pitching depth with Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, Daisuke Matsuzaka and Tim Wakefield, during the recent general manager meetings in Chicago, the Red Sox brass met with Lackey's agent. 

Similarly, the Mets general manager, Omar Minaya, met with Lackey's agent as well and was very encouraged by the conversation. 

Buster Olney ranks the Mariners as the team most likely to land Lackey in his rankings:

1. Mariners
2. Angels
3. Brewers
4. Mets
5. Red Sox
6. Yankees

John Lackey will have plenty of suitors this off season

What exactly is a "Super 2?"  Players with three years of major league service are eligible for a salary arbitration through six years of major league service when they are granted free agency if they have not agreed to a long-term deal.  However, every year there are a number of players with less than three years, but more than two years of major league service who also quality for arbitration.  These players are known as "Super 2s".

Under the 1990 labor agreement between owners and players, the top 17 percent of players (by service time) with at least two and less than three years of service time are eligible for arbitration - along with players with at least three years but less than six. 

For the 2010 off season, the following players qualify for "Super 2" status: pitcher Tim Lincecum of the Giants, Tampa Bay Rays pitcher Matt Garza, Cubs pitcher Tom Gorzelanny, third baseman Alex Gordon of the Kansas City Royals, Pittsburgh Pirates pitcher Jeff Karstens, Houston Astros outfielder Hunter Pence, Texas Rangers pitcher Dustin Nippert, recently traded Brewers outfielder Carlos Gomez and Cubs infielder Mike Fontenot. 

Fontenot tied with Baltimore Orioles outfielder Adam Jones and Cincinnati Reds pitcher Micah Owings with 2 years and 139 days of major league service.  Fontenot won a tie breaker with Jones and Owings by virtue of service time in each immediately preceding season. 

Arizona third baseman Mark Reynolds likely lost out on a multi-million dollar raise by falling one day short of qualifying as a "Super 2" amassing 2 years and 138 days of major league service.

Tim Lincecum will expect a big raise from arbitration

The premiere free agent pitcher this off season, John Lackey, will certainly be courted by all of the usual suspects: Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, Angels and Phillies. However, Buster Olney of espn.com believes that the Mariners could also be an unlikely suitor involved in the bidding.

The biggest factor for the Mariners seemingly unlikely involvement is the amount of money they are clearing off of their team salary heading into 2010. Adrian Beltre, Erik Bedard and Miguel Batista combined to make $29.75M last season and are all headed to free agency. That number rises over $40M with the departure of Jarrod Washburn who was traded to Detroit during the season.

The Brewers and Rangers are also possible non-traditional suitors for Lackey's services.

Will the Mariners surprise everyone and land John Lackey?

John Lackey is the only top of the rotation starter available in free agency, but that does not mean he'll be the only ace-level pitcher to change teams this off season.  As teams like the Blue Jays and Braves enter rebuilding phases, big names pitchers like Roy Halladay and Javier Vazquez could are viable trade options.  But, which teams would be interested and able to acquire top pitching talent?  Buster Olney of espn.com evaluates:

Milwaukee Brewers

CC Sabathia is an exhibt of both why the Brewers could be looking for a big name pitcher and why they can't afford to get one.  On one had, it was just a year ago that they offered Sabathia $100M in free agency, perhaps enough to land Lackey.  On the other hand, in order to acquire Sabathia, they seriously depleted their farm system and that makes taking a run at Halladay and Vazquez difficult. 

Texas Rangers

Back in July when Roy Halladay rumors were dominating the headlines, the Rangers were one of the most logical choices for Halladay to be traded to, but financial concerns killed any chance of the move going through.  The Rangers have alleviated their financil difficulty (for now, anyway) and still have a wealth of prospects to trade for Halladay or Vazquez.  Olney mentions that there have been rumors of the Braves and Rangers discussing a deal for Vazquez already.  Even if the Rangers do not want to part with their young talent, Lackey could still be an option for a team that seems to be a pitcher away.

Los Angeles Angels

Whether the Angels resign Lackey or not, they will still be below last year's payroll because of the likely departure of a number of free agents, even after the recent Bobby Abreu  resiging.  Talks between the Angels and Lackey seem to be mild at best, but perhaps the Angels are positioned to make an offer for Halladay.  The Blue Jays are known to be looking for middle infield talent and the Angels have plenty.  Any money not spent on Lackey could be used to sign Halladay to a long-term extension. 

Los Angeles Dodgers

The impending divorce of team owners Frank and Jaime McCourt could change everything, but assuming that the finances of the divorce are not worked out this off-season, the Dodgers could really use another pitcher (as evidenced by how much they struggled in the post-season).  The challenge is, can they acquire someone like Halladay or Vazquez without moving Andre Ethier or Matt Kemp who are untouchable.

Will Javier Vazquez be a Brave in 2010?

The free agent ranks continue to grow as a number of players' teams declined their options.

• The Royals declined Coco Crisp's $8M option for 2010 and instead bought out the center fielder for $500K.  Miguel Olivo's $3.3M option ($100K buyout) and Yasuhiko Yabuta's $4M option ($500K buyout) were also declined.  Buster Olney speculates that Crisp might be a good fit for spacious Petco Park in San Diego.  The Padres are being run by former Red Sox assistant general manager, Jed Hoyer, who knows Crisp well form his days in Boston.
• David Weathers $3.7M option for 2010 was declined by the Brewers.  His buyout cost Milwaukee $400K.
• The Marlins declined their $2.6M 2010 option on outfielder Ross Gload.