Mike Gonzalez
Rumors

The deadline for teams to offer arbitration to free agents was this past Tuesday and Keith Law of espn.com gives us his analysis of teams varying decisions to either offer or decline arbitration with their free agents.

• Billy Wagner was offered arbitration by the Red Sox and then signed with the Braves, giving the Red Sox the 20th overall pick in the 2010 draft along with a compensation pick.  Law loves that decision, but questions the Braves move, wondering how much value they'll get out of Wagner at the expense of the draft picks.  However, it seems likely that the Braves are anticipating losing Rafael Soriano or Mike Gonzalez making the draft picks a wash.  
• The Dodgers did not offer arbitration to Randy Wolf or Orlando Hudson, a clear indication that the team is in desperate financial difficulty and are afraid of the players actually accepting arbitration.  Both are Type A free agents meaning the Dodgers essentially gave up four draft picks if neither signed with LA. 
• Law agreed with the Giants decision not to offer Bengie Molina arbitration and hopes this means that the Buster Posey era - 5th overall pick of the 2008 draft - will start soon.

Is the Buster Posey era beginning in SF?

• Milwaukee did not offer Felipe Lopez arbitration, a curious decision.  Lopez only made $3.5M in 2009, did not have impressive HR, RBI or run totals and is represented by Scott Boras, so it seems unlikely that Lopez would have agreed to arbitration anyway.  Lopez is a Type B free agent and would have netted the Brewers two draft picks. 
• Similarly, the Angels raised some eyebrows by not offering Darren Oliver arbitration.  Oliver had a good year last year, likely would not cost much and as a Type A, if he left, would have netted the Angels two draft picks.  It's good news for Oliver, however, who might have had trouble finding suitors willing to give up a draft pick for him.
• Gregg Zaun and Brian Shouse were both offered arbitration by the Rays who would be ok whether the players accepted or rejected the offer.  Neither would have an unreasonable salary in 2010, but both are Type B free agents and would give the Rays a supplemental draft pick if they left. 
• The Twins have turned a "fringe prospect" into either 1.5 years of Carl Pavano or a half season of Pavano and a sandwich pick in the 2010 draft. 

Despite being offered arbitration by the Red Sox and alleging retirement, Billy Wagner has agreed to a one-year contract with the Braves. The contract will pay Wagner $7M in 2010 and has a vesting $6.5M option for 2011.

The bullpen is going to be a priority for the Braves this off season because they are at risk of losing their top two relievers, Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez, to free agency. Wagner provides insurance for the Braves if one or both of them do not resign with the team.

For the Red Sox, Wagner's signing validates a calculated gamble on their part. It was widely considered that the Red Sox hoped Wagner would not accept arbitration after they offered it to him because they would prefer a compensation draft pick over having him return to the team for the approximately $8M a year he would receive in arbitration. The Red Sox will receive the 20th pick in the 2010 draft as compensation for losing Wagner along with a supplemental pick between the first and second rounds.

While the Braves lose a draft pick, it seems likely they'll get one back from losing either Soriano or Gonzalez. Wagner's signing is likely a sign that the team does not expect both pitchers to return to the team and each is a Type A free agent, as Wagner was.

Billy Wagner will take his services to Atlanta

Though John Lackey, Jason Bay and Matt Holliday will dominate the headlines and the dollars this off season, Buster Olney of espn.com breaks down the next tier of free agents who are sure to get plenty of calls when free agency begins on Friday.

Brandon Lyon: Though there are a lot of closers available via free agency, Lyon may be willing to take a set up role and is only a Type B free agent. The Phillies, Angles, Mets and Yankees are all likely to be interested

Mark DeRosa: As a player who can play multiple positions his flexibility is a good fit for the Phillies. His bat is a good fit for any team.

Jermaine Dye: His age, 35, precludes him from being able to command a long term deal, but an AL team might be able to snag a good DH for a short and small contract.

Miguel Tejada: Though he might not be able to play shortstop anymore and would require a move to third base, his 313/340/455 splits are still attractive. Philly and Oakland could be good fits.

Miguel Tejada hopes to get plenty of offers this off season

Nick Johnson: Defense and power are very suspect for Johnson, but his OBP (an absurd .477 in 35 games last year for the Marlins) is still attractive. Offense starved teams like Oakland or San Francisco could be interested.

Coco Crisp: He's unlikely to be an everyday outfield, but his defense and speed are still tremendous and he could be a good platoon outfielder.

JJ Putz: A big market team like the Red Sox (think Billy Wagner), Yankees or Angels might be willing to give Putz a one-year deal despite coming off of injury.

Placido Polanco: His 45 extra base hits along with solid defense at second base will certainly attract suitors.

Rafael Betancourt: If the Rockies offer him arbitration, he becomes a Type A free agent and interest will be minimal. If they don't, look out.

Olney notes at the end of his piece that the rational behind Betancourt also applies to relievers Wagner, Jose Valverde, Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano.

Below is a list of closers that are eligible for free agency for the 2010 season, their age, current team, current contract and whether the player falls into a Type A or Type B free agent compensation status.

Free agent catchers
Free agent first basemen
Free agent second basemen
Free agent third basemen
Free agent shortstops
Free agent left fielders
Free agent center fielders
Free agent right fielders
Free agent starting pitchers
Free agent middle relievers

Mike Gonzalez, 32, Braves - 09:$3.45M (Type A)
Kevin Gregg, 32, Cubs - 09:$4.2M (Type A)
Fernando Rodney, 33, Tigers - 09:$2.7M (Type B)
Rafael Soriano, 30, Braves - 08:$2.4M, 09:$6.1M (Type A)
Jose Valverde, 32, Astros - 09:$8M (Type A)
Billy Wagner, 38, Red Sox - 06:$10.5M, 07:$10.5M, 08:$10.5M, 09:$10.5M (Type A)

Astros Closer Jose Valverde