Baseball Rumor Mill

Will Weak 2010 Draft Affect Strategies?

The 2005 draft had Justin Upton, Alex Gordon, Ryan Zimmerman, Ryan Braun and Troy Tulowitzki among others.

The 2008 draft had Pedro Alvarez, Brian Matusz, Buster Posey, Gordon Beckham and Justin Smoak among others.

The 2010 draft has, well, Bryce Harper.

Bryce Harper College of Southern Nevada

That's not to say there are not other worthwhile players available to draft and draft high, but the 2010 class simply doesn't have the star power at the top or the depth at the back of the class the way previous classes have. 

Does this year's draft class lack of depth impact the way teams approach the draft?  Perhaps take players much higher than they should go in order to save money, a la the Pirates and Tony Sanchez in last year's draft? 

Continue Reading...

Zack Cox, Bryce Brentz Lead Small Class of College Bats

The 2008 and 2009 drafts were unusually stocked in terms of the quality and quantity of available college bats.  Draft picks from the past two classes including Buster Posey Justin Smoak, Pedro Alvarez from 2008 and Dustin Ackley from 2009 all ranked in the Top 20 Aggregate professional prospect rankingsGordon Beckham, from 2008, doesn't even qualify as a prospect anymore as he figures to get significant playing time at the major league level for the White Sox this year. 

The 2010 class does not project as well, but Zack Cox and Bryce Brentz remain two bats that are safe picks in the first round.  The issue is the rest of the class.  While Cox and Brentz seem likely to go in the first round, where is the rest of the safe, college bat draft picks that teams who are unsure of high school pitching can rely on? 

"It gives teams more option, more safe options," an NL special assistant said. "We all know how risky it is historically to deal with high school pitching and that college hitters are the best bet. It makes it a tough decision when there aren't enough legit (college hitters) to consider."

Zach Cox Tags Out A Runner

Zack Cox figures to be one of a handful of college bats taken early this draft

Both Cox and Brentz figure to be Top 10 draft picks, but still some questions remain about their professional future.  For one, Cox is a draft eligible sophomore, which means he has the ability to return to college for his junior year if he does not like the offer he is getting from whatever team drafts him. 

As for Brentz, he hit 465/535/930 with 28 home runs and 19 doubles in 2009.  One special assistant of a team picking in the Top 10 said "we've already had conversations about this kid and our scouts love him. We're a little afraid he won't be available when we pick. That should tell you something."

Top 20 Baseball Prospects For 2010

Recently, a number of respected baseball media outlets have released their respective lists of the top number of prospects heading into the 2010 season.  These lists include Keith Law of espn.com's Top 100, Jonathan Mayo's collection of top prospects starting with Scouting the Sally's Top 30, Oriolesprospects.com Top 20, Propects Paradise's Top 30, Camden Crazies Top 25, Dave Barr's Hot Corner Top 20, Prospect Junkie's Top 20, The Cardinal Nation's Top 40, Seth Stohs from sethspeaks.net's Top 20, and Mayo's Top 50.

Obviously this all represents opinion, but to get a better idea of the overall feel of the group Baseball Rumor Mill averaged the Top 20 rankings from all of the lists to come up with an aggregate ranking of the Top 20 prospects heading into 2010. 

The rankings were tabulated only evaluating the Top 20 of each list and a point value was assigned to each rank.  #1 = 20 points, #2 = 19 points, so on down to #20 = 1 point.  If a player was not listed in the Top 20 a NR indication was given and no points were awarded.  The rankings are based on aggregate point totals, though we also did an evaluation of point totals after dropping the highest ranking and lowest ranking.  For instance, Desmond Jennings finished fifth overall in aggregate, but would be tied for 3rd with Buster Posey after dropping each player's highest and lowest ranking.

To view the raw data, click here.

Not surprisingly, Jason Heyward and Stephen Strasburg were significantly ahead of the field at the #1 and #2 spot, respectively.  There seems to be a considerable drop in consensus after either Dustin Ackley at #12 or Madison Bumgarner at #13.  Only ten players received Top 20 votes in all ten rankings.

Without further ado, the aggregate rankings

  1. Jason Heyward, OF Atlanta
  2. Stephen Strasburg, P Washington
  3. Buster Posey, C San Francisco
  4. Brian Matsuz, P Baltimore
  5. Desmond Jennings, OF Tampa Bay
  6. Carlos Santana, C Cleveland
  7. Jesus Montero, C New York Yankees
  8. Neftali Feliz, P Texas
  9. Mike Stanton, OF Florida
  10. Pedro Alvarez, 3B Pittsburgh
  11. Justin Smoak, 1B Texas
  12. Dustin Ackley, OF Seattle
  13. Madison Bumgarner, P San Francisco
  14. Aroldis Chapman, P Cincinnati
  15. Domonic Brown, OF Philadelphia
  16. Jeremy Hellickson, P Tampa Bay
  17. Martin Perez, P Texas
  18. Alcides Escobar, SS Brewers
  19. Wade Davis, P Tampa Bay
  20. Chris Carter, 1B Oakland

Stephen Strasburg Photo

Less than a year after being the #1 draft pick, Strasburg rates as the #2 prospect in baseball

2009 MLB Draft Preview: Drafting For Talent vs. Need

Unlike the NFL draft, selecting players based on an organizational need has not been a sound strategy for the MLB Draft. Jason Churchill of espn.com notes that the Red Sox, Marlins, Giants, Rangers and Rays developed five of the elite farm systems in baseball by drafting talent and never for need. Similarly drafting a player because he'll sign for less typically does not work out well either.

In 2005, the Mariners had the #3 pick of the draft and selected catcher Jeff Clement over Troy Tulowitzki, Ryan Braun, Andrew McCutchen, Cameron Maybin, Ryan Zimmerman and Jay Bruce. The imeptus for their selection was that they needed a catcher and Clement was a left handed power hitter. Six months later, the draft pick was already wasted as the Mariners signed Kenji Johjima to a three-year contract and added three more years to that contract in 2008. Even if he had somewhere to play on the Mariners major league club, injuries have drastically stunted his progression. Surely the Mariners could use one of the aforementioned players that they passed up.

The Rangers have built arguably the best farm system in baseball by continually drafting the best player available. With the 12th pick in 2006, they selected Kasey Kiker despite having plenty of LHPs in their system already (it seems impossible to have TOO many LHPs). The trend continued in the 2007 and 2008 draft where they selected pitchers seven pitchers total in the first five rounds of each draft. Their first round selection in 2008 was first basemen Justin Smoak even though they already have Chris Davis, Max Ramirez, Hank Blalock and Jarrod Saltalamacchia available to play first base.

Draft Recap: Kansas City, Texas, Etc.

More news and notes from the fall out of the 2008 draftee signing deadline.

  • The Rangers held fast with a minor league offer for Justin Smoak and ultimately got the left-handed hitter to sign a minor league deal for about $3.5M.  The Rangers got scolded by MLB last year for signing bonus's over the slotted amounts.  They did the same this year, but owner Tom Hicks is not worried.  He does, however, hope for a hard slot system some day.  Doesn't seem likely with none of the other sports going that way.
  • The highest reported 2008 draftee signing class came from the Kansas City Royals.  A big chuck of that is due to the Royals caving and going to $6M to sign Eric Hosmer.  One baseball official saw Hosmer and Pedro Alvarez's contracts as signs that the market was stablizing.

Draftee Signing Deadline Looms

With the deadline to sign 2008 draftees Friday at 12:00pm, a number of players still remain unsigned:

  • #2 Overall pick Pedro Alvarez, Pittsburgh: Pirates general manager Neal Huntington said he felt he'd be up late the next few days trying to finalize contracts with their unsigned picks.
  • #3 Overall pick Eric Hosmer, Kansas City: Bob Dutton felt that things were still iffy between Hosmer and the Royals, but mlb.com's Jonathan Mayo reports that a deal will get done...eventually.
  • #4 Overall pick Brian Matsuz, Baltimore: Matsuz is expected in Baltimore today to take a physical. This is a good indication a deal will get done. Roch Kubatko confirmed the physical. The deal is allegedly worth $3.1M.
  • #5 Overall pick Buster Posey, San Francisco: Andrew Baggarly says that Posey is a done deal with the Giants. Jonathan Mayo isn't so sure.
  • #7 Overall pick Yonder Alonso, Cincinnati: Alonso is asking for a major league deal from the Reds and this is causing problems. Apparently Alonso is taking a page out of the Scott Boras playbook and threatening to play in the Independent League if he doesn't sign.
  • #11 Overall pick Justin Smoak, Texas: Talks are mum between Smoak and the Ranger per the agreement of each side.\
  • #23 Overall pick Allan Dykstra, San Diego: The Padres are surprised that Dykstra's contract has taken so long to sign, but now know it'll go down to the wire.

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2010 First Round Picks

Bryce Harper
Bryce Harper
Jameson Taillon
Jameson Taillon
Manny Machado
Manny Machado
Christian Colon
Christian Colon
Drew Pomeranz
Drew Pomeranz
Barret Loux
Barret Loux
Matt Harvey
Matt Harvey
Delino DeShields Jr.
Delino DeShields Jr.
Karsten Whitson
Karsten Whitson
Michael Choice
Michael Choice
Deck McGuire
Deck McGuire
Yasmani Grandal
Yasmani Grandal
Chris Sale
Chris Sale
Dylan Covey
Dylan Covey
Jake Skole
Jake Skole
Hayden Simpson
Hayden Simpson
Josh Sale
Josh Sale
Kaleb Cowart
Kaleb Cowart
Mike Foltynewicz
Mike Foltynewicz
Kolbrin Vitek
Kolbrin Vitek
Alex Wimmers
Alex Wimmers
Kellin Deglan
Kellin Deglan
Christian Yelich
Christian Yelich
Gary Brown
Gary Brown
Zack Cox
Zack Cox
Kyle Parker
Kyle Parker
Jesse Biddle
Jesse Biddle
Zach Lee
Zach Lee
Cameron Bedrosian
Cameron Bedrosian
Chevez Clarke
Chevez Clarke
Justin O'Connor
Justin O'Connor
Cito Culver
Cito Culver