John Smoltz
Rumors

Plenty of rumors to pass along this morning from Nick Cafardo's article in The Boston Globe. 

• If the Red Sox are able to land John Lackey that could allow them the freedom to trade Clay Buchholz to San Diego for Adrian Gonzalez.
• Speaking of the Red Sox, here's an interesting quote from one AL general manager: "The Red Sox could be the major player this off season if certain things fall together for them.  They still have enough chips in their farm system to make something happen."  Perhaps referring to A-Gone or maybe Roy Halladay.
• The Yankees will be involved in trade discussions for Halladay and seem likely to part with Phil Hughes or Joba Chamberlain.  You have to wonder who the bigger prospect is right now.  Our money is that teams would rather have Hughers over Chamberlain.
• The Twins and Brewers are "very interested" in Carl Pavano.
• John Smoltz is also on Milwaukee's radar, but they'll have competition from the Cardinals, who'd like to see Smoltz return.
• Gary Sheffield would like to return in 2010 and is more flexible about accepting a DH role than in the past.  

John Lackey could be the first domino in a busy off season for the Red Sox

Below is a list of starting pitchers that are eligible for free agency for the 2010 season, their age, current team, current contract and whether the player falls into a Type A or Type B free agent compensation status.

Free agent catchers
Free agent first basemen
Free agent second basemen
Free agent third basemen
Free agent shortstops
Free agent left fielders
Free agent center fielders
Free agent right fielders
Free agent middle relievers
Free agent closers

Brandon Backe, 32, Astros - 09:$1.55M
Miguel Batista, 39, Mariners - 07:$5.5M, 08:$9M, 09:$9M
Erik Bedard, 31, Mariners - 09:$7.75M (Type B)
Kris Benson, 34, Rangers - 09:$750K
Daniel Cabrera, 29, Diamondbacks - 09:$2.6M
Chris Capuano, 31, Brewers - 09:minor league contract
Aroldis Chapman, 22, No Team - No professional contracts
Bartolo Colon, 37, White Sox - 09:$1M
Jose Contreras, 38, Rockies - 07:$9M, 08:$10M, 09:$10M
Doug Davis, 34, Diamondbacks - 07:$5.5M, 08:$7.75M, 09:$8.75M (Type B)
Justin Duchscherer, 32, Athletics - (Type B)
Adam Eaton, 32, Rockies - 07:$6.875M, 08:$7.635M, 09:$8.5M, 10:$9M mutual option ($0.5M buyout)
Josh Fogg, 33, Rockies - 09:minor league contract
Jon Garland, 30, Dodgers - 09:$6.25M, 10:$10M mutual option ($2.5M buyout if club declines, $1M buyout if player declines) (Type B)
Tom Glavine, 44, Braves - 09:$1M
Mike Hampton, 37, Astros - 09:$2M
Rich Harden, 28, Cubs - 05:$0.5M, 06:$1M, 07:$2M 08:$4.5M, 09:$7M (Type B)
Mark Hendrickson, 36, Orioles - 09:$1.5M
Livan Hernandez, 35, Nationals - 09:minor league contract
Shawn Hill, 29, Nationals - 09:$775K
Jason Jennings, 31, Rangers - 09:$800K
Randy Johnson, 46, Giants - 09:$8M (Type B)
John Lackey, 31, Angels - 06:$3.01M, 07:$5.5M, 08:$7M, 09:$9M (Type A)
Cliff Lee, 31, Phillies - 06:$0.75M, 07:$2.75M, 08:$3.75M, 09:$5.75M, 10:$8M club option ($1M buyout) (Type A)
Braden Looper, 35, Brewers - 09:$4.75M, 10:$6.5M option ($1M buyout) (Type B)
Rodrigo Lopez, 34, Phillies - 09:minor league contract
Jason Marquis, 31, Rockies - 07:$4.75M, 08:$6.375M, 09:$9.875M (Type B)
Brett Myers, 29, Phillies - 07:$5M, 08:$8.5M, 09:$12M
Vicente Padilla, 32, Dodgers - 07:$9M, 08:$11M, 09:$12M (Type B)
Carl Pavano, 34, Twins - 09:$1.5M (Type B)
Brad Penny, 32, Giants - 09:$5M
Odalis Perez, 33, Nationals - 09:$850K
Andy Pettitte, 38, Yankees - 09:$5.5M (Type B)
Joel Pineiro, 31, Cardinals - 08:$5M, 09:$7.5M (Type B)
Sidney Ponson, 33, Royals - 09:$600K
Mark Prior, 28, Padres - 09:minor league contract
Horacio Ramirez, 30, Nationals - 09:$1.8M
Jason Schmidt, 37, Dodgers - 07:$12.5M, 08:$12M, 09:$12M
Ben Sheets, 31, No Team - 05:$4.5M, 06:$8.5M, 07:$10M, 08:$11M
John Smoltz, 43, Cardinals - 09:$400K
Brett Tomko, 37, Athletics - 09:minor league contract
Tim Wakefield, 43, Red Sox - 09:$4M, 10:$4M club option (Type B)
Jarrod Washburn, 35, Tigers - 06:$7.45M, 07:$9.85M, 08:$9.85M, 09:$10.35M
Todd Wellemeyer, 31, Cardinals - 09:$4.05M
Kip Wells, 33, Reds - 09:$500K
Randy Wolf, 33, Dodgers - 09:$5M (Type A)

Ken Rosenthal has put together a huge column today. Let's take a look.

• Rosenthal predicts that John Lackey will be the biggest free agent pitcher for the 2010 class. Lackey's numbers are better than AJ Burnett who recently signed a five year $82.5M contract. The Angels do not seem likely to top that offer, however, and Rosenthal believes that Lackey could probably receive a very good offer on the open market.
• Scott Boras' ability to get a $60M, four year offer from the Braves for Derek Lowe when the only other known offer was for three years and $36M from the Mets can probably be attributed to the desperation the Braves faced after losing out on Burnett, John Smoltz and Jake Peavy.
• However Boras's approach does not appear to be working with Jason Varitek. According to Rosenthal, most executives view Boras and Varitek declining arbitration as foolish.
• The Dodgers are seemingly bidding against themselves for the services of Manny Ramirez, but there seems to be growing fear that if they do not include a third year, Ramirez would follow up on his threat to retire.
• There are rumors that the Red Sox have shown interest in free agent Adam Dunn, though it's hard to fit the pieces together to have the rumors make sense. Dunn would likely play first base for the Red Sox moving Kevin Youkilis to third and necessitating a trade of Mike Lowell. This made sense for a superior fielder like Mark Teixeira, but Dunn is average at best. One benefit to signing Dunn is that because the Diamondbacks did not offer him arbitration, the Sox would not lose any draft picks.
• Dunn and Bobby Abreu seem likely to get one year offers because of the thin 2010 free agent class. Matt Holliday will be available, but the talent pool after him is shallow. Teams who did not spend in 2009 (i.e., anyone not named the Yankees) are gearing up for a run at Holliday in 2010.
• Rosenthal believes that the Rangers are still highly unlikely to trade Michael Young. He is owed $59M over the next five years and $9.24M in deferred payments starting in 2016.
• The Yankees believe that Xavier Nady will be easily moved if necessary. Even if the team has to offer him arbitration for 2010, his current salary is only $3.35M, so the increase would not be too dramatic.
• Jason Isringhausen has four teams on the radar, one of which is the Tigers. The Cardinals are have said to not rule out bringing Isringhausen back.
• Randy Wolf turned down a three year $28.5M offer early in the off season from the Astros and seems unlikely to command that much anymore from limited suitors like the Dodgers.
• Despite a need for a bat, the Rangers are not going to trade for the White Sox Jermaine Dye or try budget free agents Frank Thomas or Nomar Garciaparra. They'd rather stick with Hank Blalock.
• The Red Sox and Diamondbacks are denying on being close with a deal that would send Miguel Montero to Boston.

In the on going chess match between the Red Sox and Yankees, this may not be the response the Red Sox had in mind to the Yankees signing CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett, but Boston added some depth to it's roster today with the signings of John Smoltz and Rocco Baldelli. Here's a run down of what we've seen so far today about the deals:

• Baldelli has signed a one year contract for $500K with a $1.75M roster bonus and up to $5.25M in performance bonuses.
• The Orioles, Phillies, Pirates, and Reds were also pursuing Baldelli.
• Smoltz has also will reportedly sign a one year contract, but for significantly more: $5M guaranteed with $5M in performance bonuses. Buster Olney of espn.com confirms the report.
• Espn.com's Rob Neyer feels like the signings represent a team flush with cash spending it on secondary players.
• Dave O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports the Braves offer at $3M. Gordon Edes of Yahoo! Sports reports that the offer was $3M guaranteed, $2M roster bonus, $5M in incentives.

The deadline to offer a free agent arbitration is tonight at 11pm CST (1pm EST). Here's a list of players who are eligible for arbitration, their team's decisions and any commentary.

• Trevor Hoffman was not offered arbitration by the Padres.
• The Angels have offered arbitration to Francisco Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira, Jon Garland and Darren Oliver.
• Manny Ramirez, Derek Lowe and Casey Blake were offered arbitration by the Dodgers. Joe Beimel, Brad Penny, Jeff Kent and Greg Maddux were not.
• Brian Fuentes has been offered arbitration by the Rockies.
• The Blue Jays offered arbitration to AJ Burnett but not Greg Zaun.
• The Royals offered arbitration to Mark Grudzielanek.
• Russ Springer, Braden Looper and Jason Isringhausen have not been offered arbitration by the Cardinals.
• The Yankees did not offer arbitration to Andy Pettitte, Bobby Abreu or Mike Mussina.
• Dennys Reyes has been offered arbitration by the Tigers. The Tigers also declined to offer arbitration to Edgar Renteria.
• The Brewers offered arbitration to CC Sabathia, Ben Sheets and Brian Shouse.
• The Mariners have offered arbitration to Raul Ibanez.
• John Smoltz was not offered arbitration by the Braves.
• The Mets have offered arbitration to Oliver Perez, but Luis Ayala and Moises Alou did not receive offers.
• The Red Sox have offered arbitration to Jason Varitek and Paul Byrd.
• Kerry Wood and Bob Howry were not offered arbitration by the Cubs.
• The As have declined to offer arbitration to Alan Embree and Frank Thomas. 
• As Ken Rosenthal suggested yesterday, the Diamondbacks did not offer arbitration to Adam Dunn.  They did, however, offer arbitration to Juan Cruz, Brandon Lyon and Orlando Hudson.
• The Rangers offered arbitration to Milton Bradley.

Lots going on this past weekend, let's peruse through it.

• Mark Mulder, Mark Prior, Matt Clement and Kevin Correia are all interested in playing for San Diego.
• The Rockies have notified interested clubs that Matt Holliday is available.
• A deal to send Mike Jacobs from Florida to Kansas City fell apart.
• Here is a great piece about new Seattle general manager Jack Zduriencik.
• Kenny Rogers is considering pitching in 2009.
• John Smoltz hopes to pitch by May or June and preferably for the Braves.
• Ned Colletti is disputing earlier reports of a $60M, two year offer made by the Dodgers to Manny Ramirez.

Let's take a look at Baseball Prospectus' John Perotto's latest:

• The Royals hope to sign a medium cost free agent for 2009 much they way they did with Gil Meche two years ago and Jose Guillen for 2008.  Rafael Furcal seems to be the player the Royals are most fixated on, confirming reports from earlier in the week. 
• Raul Ibanez would be a good fit with the Rays as their designated hitter for 2009.  No matter what happens, he's unlikely to return to Seattle.
• The Arizona Diamondbacks were hoping to move Brandon Lyon this off season and have Jon Rauch take over the closer duties in 2009.  However, Rauch has not been the same pitcher for the D'backs since coming over from Washington leading to concerns that he will not be able to handle the load in 2009 forcing the team to retain Lyon.  Maybe they could try to move Rauch?
• The Marlins have a stunning 18 arbitration cases to tend to during the 2009 off season and that likely means that someone is liable to be traded.  Kevin Gregg looks like a reasonable candidate. 
• Braves general manager Frank Wren traveled to Japan to scout Koji Uehara and Kenshin Kawakami.  The Braves interest in these two Japanese pitchers is likely intertwined with what the team plans to do with John Smoltz in 2009. 

Jon Heyman of Sports Illustrated gives us his latest column:

• The Mets are more likely to be interested in Brian Fuentes than Francisco Rodriguez.  With K-Rod expected to look for $15M per season and the Mets already commited $13M to injured reliever Billy Wagner, $28M would be a lot to spend on one closer.  Some think the Mets will not go after K-Rod at all. 
• The Mets would prefer to save their money for starting pitching.  Ken Rosenthal echoed these sentiments here.
• A long shot for the closers role would be 2009 free agent Derek Lowe.  Lowe did close with the Boston Red Sox from 99-01.
• Heyman doesn't buy Smoltz's assertion that he could leave the Braves in 2009.

John Smoltz would like to return to the Braves for 2009 after an unsuccesful 2008 that was cut short by shoulder surgery.  The Braves have a $12M option on Smoltz for 2009 and Smoltz recognizes that there is no need to discuss that option or a new contract if the option is not picked up for 2009 anytime soon. 

“I understand if I’m a zero on a scale...of 1 to 10” that there’s no need to discuss a contract, said Smoltz.

Smoltz also recognized, however, that if the Braves are not interested in having him back for 2009, he'd be fine with pitching for another team for the first time in his 21-year career. 

Braves general manager Frank Wren felt that discussing Smoltz's contract situation was not appropriate this early.

Jayson Stark of espn.com gives some thoughts on the upcoming offseason.

• The Yankees are expected to spend this off season when they clear close to $80M in salary off the books from 2009 and that can only mean good news for Mark Teixeira. The Mets seem likely to pick-up Carlos Delgado's option for 2009, eliminating the other New York team as a destination for Teixeira. Scott Boras is rumored to be setting the initial price tag for Teixeira at 10-years $230M, but general sentiment is that he'll sign for something closer to $90M over 5-years. That's what Torii Hunter signed for this past year, so that seems a little conservative of an estimate to me.
• Most talk is about the amount of money coming off of the Yankees books, but the Atlanta Braves will clear $56M in salary for 2009 as well. The contracts cleared are:
  
  • Teixeira $12.5M (his salary counted as part of their $108M opening day payroll)
  • Mike Hampton $20M ($6M buyout)
  • John Smoltz $14M
  • Tom Glavine $8M
  • Mark Kotsay $8M (recently traded to the Red Sox)
• Smoltz and Glavine are rumored to be interested in returning, for a significant discount
• Mike Lamb has said he'd love to return to Philadelphia
• Seattle has no shot to resign Raul Ibanez
• The Dodgers would like to resign Casey Blake