John Lackey
Rumors

Back in October, we posted the 2010 MLB Draft Order.  Since October, there have been plenty of free agent signings which have impacted where teams will make selections based on compensation picks.  Below is the complete draft order with all compensation picks included.

Protected First-Round Picks
1) Nationals (59-103)
2) Pirates (62-99)
3) Orioles (64-98)
4) Royals (65-97)
5) Indians (65-97)
6) Diamondbacks (70-92)
7) Mets (70-92)
8) Astros (74-88)
9) Padres (75-87)
10) Athletics (75-87)
11) Blue Jays (75-87)
12) Reds (78-84)
13) White Sox (79-83)
14) Brewers (80-82)
15) Rangers (compensation for failure to sign Matt Purke)
16) Cubs (83-78)
Unprotected First-Round Picks
17) Rays (84-78)
18) Angels (compensation from Mariners for Chone Figgins)
19) Astros (compensation from Tigers for Jose Valverde)
20) Red Sox (compensation from Braves for Billy Wagner)
21) Twins (87-76)
22) Rangers (87-75)
23) Marlins (87-75)
24) Giants (88-74)
25) Cardinals (91-71)
26) Rockies (92-70)
27) Phillies (93-69)
28) Dodgers (95-67)
29) Angels (compensation from Red Sox for John Lackey)
30) Angels (97-65)
31) Rays (compensation for failure to sign LeVon Washington)
32) Yankees (103-59)

When teams finish with the same record, the tiebreaker (and higher pick) goes to the club with the worst record the previous year.

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The Boston Red Sox landed one of the top free agents of the 2010 off season by signing former Angels pitcher John Lackey to a five year, $85M deal, according to Jon Heyman of Sports Illustrated.  Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports had reported earlier in the day that Lackey was in Boston taking a physical.  Though numerous sources are reporting the deal as completed, Jerry Crasnick of espn.com believes that a formal agreement will not be reached until after today. 

Tim Brown from Yahoo Sports reports that the Angels still believe they are in the running for Lackey and that a deal has not been reached between Lackey and the Red Sox.

If the Red Sox do sign Lackey, the move affects the Blue Jays because both former Blue Jay Marco Scutaro and Lackey are Type A free agents.  Because Lackey is the higher ranking free agent, the Angels will receive the Red Sox first round pick, #29 overall, while the Blue Jays will be bumped to the Red Sox second round pick. 

John Lackey appears headed to Boston

As the Roy Halladay hot stove begins to fire up, the Red Sox hope to take much of the drama out of the situation by acquiring the right handed pitcher before the start of the winter meetings on December 7th, Peter Abraham of The Boston Globe reports.  In return for Halladay, the Jays are reportedly asking for top Sox prospect Casey Kelly and emerging starter Clay Buchholz. 

For the Blue Jays, the move to trade Halladay is not a desire, but more a need based on Halladay's unwillingness to sign an extension with Toronto and hopes to play for a contending team.  With one year left on a three-year, $40M deal that Halladay signed before the 2008 season, the Jays hope to get as much as they can for the perennial Cy Young contender this off season, rather than waiting until July.  They'd also save the $15.75M that Halladay is owed in 2010. 

The Red Sox are not the only team interested in Halladay, not even within their own division.  Despite winning the world series, the Yankees still have holes in their pitching rotation, something they'd be happy to will with Halladay.  The Sox urgency is certainly an effort to get out in front of the Yankees where general manager Brian Cashman is waiting to receive his budget for the 2010 season before making any major moves.  The Blue Jays would likely ask for some of the Yankees top propsects like Austin Jackson or Jesus Montero along with either Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain. 

The Red Sox and Yankees will be in hot pursuit of Roy Halladay this off season

The Angels figure to be another team interested in Halladay if they are unable to retain free agent pitcher John Lackey.

Despite all the drama, espn.com's Buster Olney puts the odds of Halladay being traded at only 50/50.

Plenty of rumors to pass along this morning from Nick Cafardo's article in The Boston Globe. 

• If the Red Sox are able to land John Lackey that could allow them the freedom to trade Clay Buchholz to San Diego for Adrian Gonzalez.
• Speaking of the Red Sox, here's an interesting quote from one AL general manager: "The Red Sox could be the major player this off season if certain things fall together for them.  They still have enough chips in their farm system to make something happen."  Perhaps referring to A-Gone or maybe Roy Halladay.
• The Yankees will be involved in trade discussions for Halladay and seem likely to part with Phil Hughes or Joba Chamberlain.  You have to wonder who the bigger prospect is right now.  Our money is that teams would rather have Hughers over Chamberlain.
• The Twins and Brewers are "very interested" in Carl Pavano.
• John Smoltz is also on Milwaukee's radar, but they'll have competition from the Cardinals, who'd like to see Smoltz return.
• Gary Sheffield would like to return in 2010 and is more flexible about accepting a DH role than in the past.  

John Lackey could be the first domino in a busy off season for the Red Sox

Citing a likely moderate economy at best, the Dodgers team president, Dennis Mannion, felt that his team would not be able to pursue free agent pitcher John Lackey this off season. 

"You can't ignore the fact that the economy will be level at best for next year," Mannion said. "We're not going to make any outlandish-type decisions in a rough economy."

Beyond Lackey, the team likely lacks the resources to make a run at a significant free agent this off season as well.  The Dodgers are already paying $20M to Manny Ramirez next season. 

John Lackey may stay in Los Angeles, but not with the Dodgers

Though John Lackey, Jason Bay and Matt Holliday will dominate the headlines and the dollars this off season, Buster Olney of espn.com breaks down the next tier of free agents who are sure to get plenty of calls when free agency begins on Friday.

Brandon Lyon: Though there are a lot of closers available via free agency, Lyon may be willing to take a set up role and is only a Type B free agent. The Phillies, Angles, Mets and Yankees are all likely to be interested

Mark DeRosa: As a player who can play multiple positions his flexibility is a good fit for the Phillies. His bat is a good fit for any team.

Jermaine Dye: His age, 35, precludes him from being able to command a long term deal, but an AL team might be able to snag a good DH for a short and small contract.

Miguel Tejada: Though he might not be able to play shortstop anymore and would require a move to third base, his 313/340/455 splits are still attractive. Philly and Oakland could be good fits.

Miguel Tejada hopes to get plenty of offers this off season

Nick Johnson: Defense and power are very suspect for Johnson, but his OBP (an absurd .477 in 35 games last year for the Marlins) is still attractive. Offense starved teams like Oakland or San Francisco could be interested.

Coco Crisp: He's unlikely to be an everyday outfield, but his defense and speed are still tremendous and he could be a good platoon outfielder.

JJ Putz: A big market team like the Red Sox (think Billy Wagner), Yankees or Angels might be willing to give Putz a one-year deal despite coming off of injury.

Placido Polanco: His 45 extra base hits along with solid defense at second base will certainly attract suitors.

Rafael Betancourt: If the Rockies offer him arbitration, he becomes a Type A free agent and interest will be minimal. If they don't, look out.

Olney notes at the end of his piece that the rational behind Betancourt also applies to relievers Wagner, Jose Valverde, Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano.

The early serious bidders for John Lackey appear to be the Angles, Red Sox and Mets so far.  Buster Olney from espn.com heard that the Angels most recent offer to Lackey was a multi-year contract for a total of $72M. 

Though the Red Sox have plenty of pitching depth with Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, Daisuke Matsuzaka and Tim Wakefield, during the recent general manager meetings in Chicago, the Red Sox brass met with Lackey's agent. 

Similarly, the Mets general manager, Omar Minaya, met with Lackey's agent as well and was very encouraged by the conversation. 

Buster Olney ranks the Mariners as the team most likely to land Lackey in his rankings:

1. Mariners
2. Angels
3. Brewers
4. Mets
5. Red Sox
6. Yankees

John Lackey will have plenty of suitors this off season

The premiere free agent pitcher this off season, John Lackey, will certainly be courted by all of the usual suspects: Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, Angels and Phillies. However, Buster Olney of espn.com believes that the Mariners could also be an unlikely suitor involved in the bidding.

The biggest factor for the Mariners seemingly unlikely involvement is the amount of money they are clearing off of their team salary heading into 2010. Adrian Beltre, Erik Bedard and Miguel Batista combined to make $29.75M last season and are all headed to free agency. That number rises over $40M with the departure of Jarrod Washburn who was traded to Detroit during the season.

The Brewers and Rangers are also possible non-traditional suitors for Lackey's services.

Will the Mariners surprise everyone and land John Lackey?

John Lackey is the only top of the rotation starter available in free agency, but that does not mean he'll be the only ace-level pitcher to change teams this off season.  As teams like the Blue Jays and Braves enter rebuilding phases, big names pitchers like Roy Halladay and Javier Vazquez could are viable trade options.  But, which teams would be interested and able to acquire top pitching talent?  Buster Olney of espn.com evaluates:

Milwaukee Brewers

CC Sabathia is an exhibt of both why the Brewers could be looking for a big name pitcher and why they can't afford to get one.  On one had, it was just a year ago that they offered Sabathia $100M in free agency, perhaps enough to land Lackey.  On the other hand, in order to acquire Sabathia, they seriously depleted their farm system and that makes taking a run at Halladay and Vazquez difficult. 

Texas Rangers

Back in July when Roy Halladay rumors were dominating the headlines, the Rangers were one of the most logical choices for Halladay to be traded to, but financial concerns killed any chance of the move going through.  The Rangers have alleviated their financil difficulty (for now, anyway) and still have a wealth of prospects to trade for Halladay or Vazquez.  Olney mentions that there have been rumors of the Braves and Rangers discussing a deal for Vazquez already.  Even if the Rangers do not want to part with their young talent, Lackey could still be an option for a team that seems to be a pitcher away.

Los Angeles Angels

Whether the Angels resign Lackey or not, they will still be below last year's payroll because of the likely departure of a number of free agents, even after the recent Bobby Abreu  resiging.  Talks between the Angels and Lackey seem to be mild at best, but perhaps the Angels are positioned to make an offer for Halladay.  The Blue Jays are known to be looking for middle infield talent and the Angels have plenty.  Any money not spent on Lackey could be used to sign Halladay to a long-term extension. 

Los Angeles Dodgers

The impending divorce of team owners Frank and Jaime McCourt could change everything, but assuming that the finances of the divorce are not worked out this off-season, the Dodgers could really use another pitcher (as evidenced by how much they struggled in the post-season).  The challenge is, can they acquire someone like Halladay or Vazquez without moving Andre Ethier or Matt Kemp who are untouchable.

Will Javier Vazquez be a Brave in 2010?

Name: Matt Holliday
Age: 29
Position: OF
Current Team: St. Louis Cardinals
Current Contract: 08:$9.5M, 09:$13M

Performance: Since being traded to St. Louis from the As in the middle of the 2009 season, Holliday has been a major component of the Cardinals offense. With St. Louis Holliday hit 359/419/604 (BA/OBP/SLG) with 13HRs, and 55RBI in just 63 games. Holliday is mostly known for his tremendous performance in Colorado from 2004-2008 before he was traded to the As.  However, while with Oakland, Holliday struggled hitting 286/378/454 with 11HR and 54RBI in 93 games.  Which Holliday will his new team be getting?

Outlook: Two years younger than the other premiere outfielder available, Jason Bay, Holliday is likely the #1 free agent available this off season.  His contract is likely to impact that of Bay and possibly players like Bobby Abreu, Vladimir Guerrero and even John Lackey.  The big question is how to evaluate his difficult 93 games in the American League vs. the extremely productive 63 games in the National League.  Hitting behind Albert Pujols certainly helps, but is the issue more of an AL vs. NL thing.  Will AL teams be scared off by Holliday's AL stats?  Either way, Holliday figures to get a multi-year contract averaging $18M to $20M per year.

Suitors: Cardinals, Giants, Mets, Braves, Angles, Red Sox, Yankees.

Prediction: Definitely an NL team, look for the Giants to make a surprise signing.

Free agent slugger Matt Holliday