Jason Bay
Rumors

Back in October, we posted the 2010 MLB Draft Order.  Since October, there have been plenty of free agent signings which have impacted where teams will make selections based on compensation picks.  Below is the complete draft order with all compensation picks included.

Protected First-Round Picks
1) Nationals (59-103)
2) Pirates (62-99)
3) Orioles (64-98)
4) Royals (65-97)
5) Indians (65-97)
6) Diamondbacks (70-92)
7) Mets (70-92)
8) Astros (74-88)
9) Padres (75-87)
10) Athletics (75-87)
11) Blue Jays (75-87)
12) Reds (78-84)
13) White Sox (79-83)
14) Brewers (80-82)
15) Rangers (compensation for failure to sign Matt Purke)
16) Cubs (83-78)
Unprotected First-Round Picks
17) Rays (84-78)
18) Angels (compensation from Mariners for Chone Figgins)
19) Astros (compensation from Tigers for Jose Valverde)
20) Red Sox (compensation from Braves for Billy Wagner)
21) Twins (87-76)
22) Rangers (87-75)
23) Marlins (87-75)
24) Giants (88-74)
25) Cardinals (91-71)
26) Rockies (92-70)
27) Phillies (93-69)
28) Dodgers (95-67)
29) Angels (compensation from Red Sox for John Lackey)
30) Angels (97-65)
31) Rays (compensation for failure to sign LeVon Washington)
32) Yankees (103-59)

When teams finish with the same record, the tiebreaker (and higher pick) goes to the club with the worst record the previous year.

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With Jason Bay off the market after being signed by the Mets, the last remaining big name free agent is Matt Holliday.  Let's take a look at the rumors surrounding where he's going to land.

• Buster Olney of espn.com tweets that the Cardinals latest offer to Holliday is over $100M guaranteed.  Remember, the Jason Bay contract was only $66M guaranteed, but with reasonable incentive clauses to get the deal to $80M.
• Tracy Ringolsby of Fox Sports writes that the Cardinals offer could be as high as eight years and $140M.  
• Ringolsby also writes that the Orioles made a eight-year, $130M offer, but Jeff Zrebic of the Baltimore Sun writes that Orioles president Andy MacPhail denied the report.
• Jon Heyman of Sports Illustrated write that Holliday reportedly turned down an offer from the Cardinals in excess of six-years and $100M as recently as the past few weeks.  As such, Holliday is rumored to still be talking with many teams.  

Where will the prize of the 2010 free agent class, Matt Holliday, land?

The New York Mets have reached a tentative agreement to sign former Red Sox outfielder Jason Bay to a four year contract, reports Jerry Crasnick of espn.com.  The initial terms of the deal are four years, $66M, but the deal also includes a vesting option for a fifth year that would increase the total $80M over five years. Completion of the deal will wait until Bay passes a physical, rumored for next week.

Speculation is that the fifth year option will vest based on typically achieveable plate appearance goals over the first four years of the contract.  Bay has played in an average of 154 games per season since 2005.

Bay was offered arbitration by the Red Sox back in November and as such will receive a supplementary first round pick and the Mets second round pick, seventh of the second round, as compensation in the upcoming 2010 draft. 

Jason Bay is heading to New York

With Bay's signing, the next chip to fall is the winter's most prized free agent, Matt Holliday.  As Keith Law of espn.com suggests, with Bay's fifth year option likely to vest, Holliday is unlikely to sign for less than five years, $80M.

A few notes about Jason Bay to pass along.

• On the eve of full free agency, Bay rejected Boston's latest offer: "close to $60M" over 4 years.
• The Yankees do not appear interested in Bay.
• The Angels, on the other hand, have not ruled out looking into acquiring Bay. Matt Holliday, however, does not appear to be on their radar.
• The Giants join the Yankees as being publicly uninterested in Bay.

The market for Jason Bay appears to be narrowing

Let's take a look at a few Matt Holliday rumors before free agency kicks into full gear later tonight.

• Angels owner Arte Moreno told the LA Times that "[Holliday] is not going to be an angel."
• The Giants do not want to be a team that an agent uses as leverage against a serious bidder, so they will be interested in Holliday or Jason Bay.

Where will Matt Holliday land this off season?

Jayson Stark from espn.com has a new article up with plenty of off season rumors.

• Milton Bradley appears to have three different suitors: Rays, Rangers and Jays. However, Bradley is owed $21M over the remainder of his contact, so the Cubs will likely have to take on a bad contract in return.
• The Marlins had discussions about trading Dan Uggla with the Giants and Rangers.
• Rather than bid on Jason Bay or Matt Holliday, the Yankees seem content to try and resign Johnny Damon or Hideki Matsui.
• Derek Lowe's contract is becoming burdensome for the Braves, especially as they look to extend Javier Vazquez. They'll try to move Lowe and hope to get a hitter in return for him.
• The Phillies are considering Placido Polanco, Mark DeRosa and Adrian Beltre at third base.

Johnny Damon is an off season priority for the Yankees

Though John Lackey, Jason Bay and Matt Holliday will dominate the headlines and the dollars this off season, Buster Olney of espn.com breaks down the next tier of free agents who are sure to get plenty of calls when free agency begins on Friday.

Brandon Lyon: Though there are a lot of closers available via free agency, Lyon may be willing to take a set up role and is only a Type B free agent. The Phillies, Angles, Mets and Yankees are all likely to be interested

Mark DeRosa: As a player who can play multiple positions his flexibility is a good fit for the Phillies. His bat is a good fit for any team.

Jermaine Dye: His age, 35, precludes him from being able to command a long term deal, but an AL team might be able to snag a good DH for a short and small contract.

Miguel Tejada: Though he might not be able to play shortstop anymore and would require a move to third base, his 313/340/455 splits are still attractive. Philly and Oakland could be good fits.

Miguel Tejada hopes to get plenty of offers this off season

Nick Johnson: Defense and power are very suspect for Johnson, but his OBP (an absurd .477 in 35 games last year for the Marlins) is still attractive. Offense starved teams like Oakland or San Francisco could be interested.

Coco Crisp: He's unlikely to be an everyday outfield, but his defense and speed are still tremendous and he could be a good platoon outfielder.

JJ Putz: A big market team like the Red Sox (think Billy Wagner), Yankees or Angels might be willing to give Putz a one-year deal despite coming off of injury.

Placido Polanco: His 45 extra base hits along with solid defense at second base will certainly attract suitors.

Rafael Betancourt: If the Rockies offer him arbitration, he becomes a Type A free agent and interest will be minimal. If they don't, look out.

Olney notes at the end of his piece that the rational behind Betancourt also applies to relievers Wagner, Jose Valverde, Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano.

Name: Matt Holliday
Age: 29
Position: OF
Current Team: St. Louis Cardinals
Current Contract: 08:$9.5M, 09:$13M

Performance: Since being traded to St. Louis from the As in the middle of the 2009 season, Holliday has been a major component of the Cardinals offense. With St. Louis Holliday hit 359/419/604 (BA/OBP/SLG) with 13HRs, and 55RBI in just 63 games. Holliday is mostly known for his tremendous performance in Colorado from 2004-2008 before he was traded to the As.  However, while with Oakland, Holliday struggled hitting 286/378/454 with 11HR and 54RBI in 93 games.  Which Holliday will his new team be getting?

Outlook: Two years younger than the other premiere outfielder available, Jason Bay, Holliday is likely the #1 free agent available this off season.  His contract is likely to impact that of Bay and possibly players like Bobby Abreu, Vladimir Guerrero and even John Lackey.  The big question is how to evaluate his difficult 93 games in the American League vs. the extremely productive 63 games in the National League.  Hitting behind Albert Pujols certainly helps, but is the issue more of an AL vs. NL thing.  Will AL teams be scared off by Holliday's AL stats?  Either way, Holliday figures to get a multi-year contract averaging $18M to $20M per year.

Suitors: Cardinals, Giants, Mets, Braves, Angles, Red Sox, Yankees.

Prediction: Definitely an NL team, look for the Giants to make a surprise signing.

Free agent slugger Matt Holliday

Name: John Lackey
Age: 31
Position: RHP
Current Team: Los Angeles Angles
Current Contract: 06:$3.01M, 07:$5.5M, 08:$7M, 09:$9M

Performance: Undoubtedly, Lackey posted his best season in 2007 when he finished 3rd in the Cy Young voting and had his lone All-Star appearance.  Lackey posted a 3.01 ERA that season along with a 1.21 WHIP and 179?K in 224 IP.  Since then, Lackey's numbers haven't been quite as impressive (3.80 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 269K in 339 IP), but he's still been a very solid pitcher in the American League.

Outlook: Lackey is unquestionably the best pitcher available on the free agent market this off-season.  He is considered the cream of the free agent class along with Jason Bay and Matt Holliday.  His numbers are comparable to that of the Yankees AJ Burnett, who signed for five years and $82.5M last off season.  The Angels are certainly interested in keeping their ace right hander, but at $16.5M per season, they may not be able to when they may also need to pay the likes of Vladimir Guerrero, Bobby Abreu and Chone Figgins.

Suitors: Angels, Mets, Rangers, Braves, Phillies.

Prediction: The Mets need to make a splash after a frustrating season.

John Lackey of the Los Angeles Angels

Name: Jason Bay
Age: 31
Position: OF
Current Team: Boston Red Sox
Current Contract: 06:$0.75M, 07:$3.25M, 08:$5.75M, 09:$7.5M

Performance: Since being traded to Boston from the Pirates at the trade, Bay has been a key component of the Red Sox offense. In 2009, Bay hit 267/384/537 (BA/OBP/SLG) with 36HRs, and 119RBI. His .921 OPS led all AL outfielders (2nd in MLB OFs). Bay is a career .280 hitter with a .896 OPS.

Outlook: Bay is one of the premiere free agents in what is otherwise considered a lackluster free agent class. Besides Bay, the only other "big name" free agents are Matt Holliday and John Lackey. The market for Bay and Holliday figures to be set by one another. Most experts believe that Bay will get slightly less money than the higher profile Holliday. If Holliday signs first, we can estimate Bay's contract and vice versa. The Red Sox have already indicated that an offer of four years and $60M is on the table, though certainly speculation is that Bay will look for a longer length contract that averages $17M to $18M. The question remains if there is a club out there willing to pay him.

Suitors: Red Sox, Yankees, Mets, Angels, Cardinals - Any team able to pay Bay's likely steep salary demands.

Prediction: Bay resigns with the Red Sox.

Jason Bay of the Boston Red Sox