Felix Hernandez
Rumors

Peter Gammons and Gordon Edes of espn.com give plenty of speculation about how the Red Sox off season will play out.

• Jason Bay is likely to return to the Red Sox for many reasons, but most of all, it's unclear who else will compete with the Red Sox to sign him.  Gammons feels the contract will be in the four years, $64M deal.  Bay recently rejected a four year, $60M-ish deal.  
• Alex Gonzalez seems likely to return to the Red sox, even though they declined his 2010 option.  Marco Scutaro is another option.
• Unless Adrian Gonzalez or Felix Hernandez are available to the Red Sox, a blockbuster trade is unlikely.  Nevertheless, the Red Sox are sure to explore the option of acquiring Roy Halladay again.
• The Red Sox were interested in Cody Ross back in July and may continue to try to acquire the outfielder from the Marlins.  Manny Delcarmen was the rumored compensation for Cody back in July.
• Rich Harden and Ben Sheets are likely free agent targets for the Red Sox.
• While Boston may be a good fit for Aroldis Chapman, neither writer thinks that the Red Sox will make a serious push for him. 

Aroldis Chapman may work well in Boston, but are they interested?

Though the non-waiver trade deadline has passed, players can still be traded if they clear revocable waivers.  Simply put, if a team puts a player on waivers and no other team puts a claim in on that player, the team is then free to trade that player to another team.  If that player is claimed by another team, however, the first team can either pull that player off of waivers and they will not be able to trade the individual or allow the claiming team to keep the waived player and the claiming team assumes the entire contract responsibility. 

Jon Heyman of si.com broke down the list of players who will likely be put on waivers in to those who are "likely to clear", "could clear" and "unlikely to clear"

Likely To Clear

1. Bronson Arroyo - owed $17 over the remainder of 2009 and 2010
2. Adam Dunn - $12 is coming to him in 2010
3. Jose Guillen - $12 for 2010
4. Aaron Harang - over $25M in 2010 and 2011
5. Adrian Beltre - the remainder of his $12M in 2009
6. Aubrey Huff - the remainder of his $8M in 2009
7. Jason Giambi - the remainder of his $4M for 2009 and a $1.25M buyout for 2010 (or $6.5M contract)
8. Melvin Mora - the remainder of his $9M for 2009.  We already know he's not happy in Baltimore.
9. Juan Cruz - $2.25M in 09, $3.25M in 10, $4M option for 2011 or $500K buyout
10. Ty Wigginton - $2.5M in 09, $3.5M in 2010
11. Miguel Batista - $9M for 2009
12. Ron Mahay - $4M for 2009
13. Willie Bloomquist - $1.4M for 2009, $1.7M for 2010
14. Lyle Overbay - $7M in 2009, $7M in 2010
15. Willy Taveras - $2.25M in 2009, $4M in 2010

Could Clear

1. Jon Garland - remainder of $6.25M for 2009 plus a club buyout of $2.5M buyout for 2010 or a $10M contract
2. Doug Davis - $8.75M for 2009
3. Gil Meche - $22M for 2010 and 2011
4. Alex Rios - a staggering $63.2M from 2010-2014 AND a $1M buyout of a $13.5M club option in 2015.  Hard to imagine anyone taking on this contract or Toronto pulling him back.
5. Carl Pavano - $1.5M for 2009, but contract is LOADED with incentives.
6. Mark Hendrickson - $1.5M for 2009 with $500K in incentives
7. Jhonny Peralta - $3.4M for 2009, $4.6M for 2010, $250K buyout of $7M option for 2011
8. Jamey Carroll - $2.5M for 2009
9. Ron Villone - $600K

Unlikely To Clear

1. Roy Halladay - he wouldn't clear regardless of his contract, but he's owed $14.25M in 2009 and $15.75M for 2010
2. Felix Hernandez - the subject of a deadline blockbuster that never materialized, he's owed just the rest of his $3.8M in 2009, but is arbitration eligible.
3. Heath Bell - another arbitration eligible guy, he's only making $1.225M in 2009
4. Adrian Gonzalez - $3M for 2009 and $4.75M for 2010, he'd be arbitration eligible in 2011 if his team does not pick up his $5.5M option.
5. Marco Scutaro - just $1.1M for 2009, he's due a big raise in free agency for 2010 which is why the Jays would like to move him if possible.  Not likely.
6. Chad Qualls - arbitration guy making $2.5M for 2009
7. Michael Wuertz - only $1.1M, but arbitration eligible
8. Brian Bannister - $1.7M for 2009, but arbitration eligible
9. Josh Willingham - $2.95M for 2009 AND arbitration eligible
10. Gary Sheffield - a $14M salary that the Mets are only paying $400K of
11. David Eckstein - only $850K, but the Padres are trying to trim payroll
12. Jason Frasor - arbitration guy with $1.45M for 2009
13. Mark Teahen - $3.575M arbitration eligible

Apparently the Red Sox and Mariners discussed a monster deal that would have sent Felix Hernandez to Boston for five players from the following list:

1. Clay Buchholz
2. Daniel Bard
3. Justin Masterson
4. Nick Hagadone
5. Michael Bowden
6. Felix Doubront
7. Josh Reddick
8. Yamaico Navarro

When that deal didn't work out, the Padres got involved and the deal would have sent Hernandez to Boston, Adrian Gonzalez, Buchholz and a few other Red Sox prospects and the Padres would have received Brandon Morrow, Phillippe Aumont and Carlos Triunfel along with more Sox prospects.  Wow. 

Since the trade deadline, Bard has now become untouchable.  Sorta.

Jayson Stark of espn.com has put together a great article that looks various arbitration cases that will either go to a hearing or possibly be resolved by the two sides before a hearing.

Ryan Howard

Howard was a landmark case last year winning his hearing and being awarded $10M for the 2008 season, so what can we expect for 2009? Stark has heard estimates that Howard will be seeking $15M-$17M from the Phillies and no one believes that Howard will sign a deal. Rumor has it that the Phillies were preparing to trade Howard this off season, but plans changed after the team won the 2009 World Series. Perhaps that only delays their trading plans until next year, but the longer they wait, the lower his trade value becomes. The last option is to continue the arbitration process until he is no longer eligible in 2011 when Howard will be 32.

Price Fielder

Fielder is seemingly a carbon copy of Howard's case in 2008, but with slightly lower accolades than Howard. Nevertheless, Fielder is a Scott Boras client which means he and the Brewers are likely heading for a hearing. Much like Howard, Fielder also seems content to go through the arbitration process until he is free in 2011 which means the Brewers have to decide whether to trade their first baseman before then.

Cole Hamels

The World Series MVP will probably be looking for $5M in arbitration, just north of what Yankees pitcher Chien-Ming Wang ($4.6M) asked for in his first year of arbitration. While Wang lost his case and ended up with $4M, Hamels is coming off a more impressive season with better accolades. The unknown here is if the Phillies can sign Hamels before arbitration. Historically they have been unwilling to guarantee more than three years for a pitcher, but there are fewer ace-caliber starting pitchers out there and Hamels has been relatively healthy

Jonathan Papelbon

Why the Red Sox and their closer have not reached a long term agreement is anyone's guess, but either way Papelbon seems poised to become one of the highest paid relievers for his service time (three years) in history.

Kevin Youkilis

Youkilis falls into the same category as Papelbon as another Red Sox player who is surprisingly not signed long term yet. The first baseman is only two years away from unrestricted free agency, so perhaps that is his approach at this point. Youkilis made $3M in 2008 and figures to make substantially more in 2009.

Felix Hernandez

New Mariners general manager Jack Zduriencik faces his first tough challenge in trying to sign Hernandez to a long term deal, something his predecessors were unable to do. With three years before he's a free agent, Hernandez has to weigh the direction of the club against a long term deal.

Dan Uggla

Uggla's arbitration case is not all that noteworthy with the exception that if he wins his case and starts to make a modest salary, he instantly becomes trade bait simply because the Marlins historically are not interested in paying anyone.

Zach Greinke

Greinke's case is similar to Hernandez in that he needs to decide if the Royals are going in the right direction and that's a team he wants to sign a long term deal with or wait out free agency. 

Justin Verlander

This is another case that is not all that interesting on the surface, but depends on the direction of the team.  If the Tigers do not contend, general manager Dave Dombrowski may try to blow things up and restart and that would likely mean trading Verlander.

Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times gives us some of the latest news and notes from Seattle:

• Kenji Johjima recently signed a 3-year $24M extension which didn't make sense considering his disappointing performance and the rebuilding direction the team plans to take in 2009 and 2010.  Baker reports that the contract was signed at the insistence of the Mariners Japanese ownership.
• While the concensus seems to be that the Mariners will rebuild, their decision not to trade Jarrod Washburn to Minnesota for young pitchers is puzzeling.
• The Mariners hope to resign Raul Ibanez though many do not feel he's interested in returning.
• Baker feels that the Mariners goal should be to contend in 2011.  Not coincidentally, that would be the last season before Felix Hernandez became an unrestricted free agent.

Geoff Baker of The Seattle Times recently interviewed Mariners president Chuck Armstrong about the Mariners direction for 2009.  First and foremost is to hire a new general manager to replace interim general manager Lee Pelekoudas.  Armstrong expects that whomever interviews for the jobs has a comprehensive plan for sustainability in terms of winning from year to year. 

First and foremost, the team will not be in the market for the big name free agents like Mark Teixeira, CC Sabathia or Ben Sheets.  Instead, Armstorng feels that the team will look to develop its younger players like Brandon Morrow and Jeff Clement.  This likely means that the Mariners will not be in contention in 2009, though Armstrong refuses to rule it out. 

That also likely means that the payroll will drop well below the $100M the Mariners spent in 2008.  The contracts of Richie Sexson, Jose Vidro and Brad Wilkerson are all gone, though Felix Hernandez and Erik Bedard are expected to get raises from their 500K and $7M salaries, respectively. 

Armstrong admits that he blocked the trade of pitcher Jarrod Washburn to the Twins citing that he wanted to get some value back for Washburn, not just save money.  He also believes Washburn could contribute in 2009, so perahps the Mariners will not look to trade Washburn in the off season either (he is set to make $10.35M in 2009).

They will also have to decide if they want to part with Adrian Beltre who is expected to be in demand for 2009.