Dustin Ackley
Rumors

Unlike with the NBA or NFL draft where obvious positional needs or surpluses can help narrow down a team's draft interests, in baseball it is harder to predict what direction a team will go because talent is almost always selected over position. 

What is likely more important than position is a player's likeliness to sign as there is no rookie salary scales such as in the NBA or forced professionalism as in the NFL.  A high school senior or collegiate, draft-eligible freshman, sophomore or junior can go to school even after being drafted so long as they do not sign a contract. 

The murkiness of the draft makes predicting the MLB draft a lot more difficult, both for prognosticators and the teams.  What other questions would teams like to see answered before the June 8th draft?

1) What will Scott Boras's impact on the draft be?

As mentioned earlier, a player's signabiliy is often as important, if not more important, than his actual talent.  A notorious hard negotiator, Boras is the type of advisor who will push for his clients to get more than their draft slot value and this type of approach may discourage teams from drafting a talented player for fear of losing him if he does not sign. 

Will Ranaudo's affiliation with Boras cause his draft stock to slip?

Continue Reading...

The 2008 and 2009 drafts were unusually stocked in terms of the quality and quantity of available college bats.  Draft picks from the past two classes including Buster Posey,  Justin Smoak, Pedro Alvarez from 2008 and Dustin Ackley from 2009 all ranked in the Top 20 Aggregate professional prospect rankings.  Gordon Beckham, from 2008, doesn't even qualify as a prospect anymore as he figures to get significant playing time at the major league level for the White Sox this year. 

The 2010 class does not project as well, but Zack Cox and Bryce Brentz remain two bats that are safe picks in the first round.  The issue is the rest of the class.  While Cox and Brentz seem likely to go in the first round, where is the rest of the safe, college bat draft picks that teams who are unsure of high school pitching can rely on? 

"It gives teams more option, more safe options," an NL special assistant said. "We all know how risky it is historically to deal with high school pitching and that college hitters are the best bet. It makes it a tough decision when there aren't enough legit (college hitters) to consider."

Zack Cox figures to be one of a handful of college bats taken early this draft

Both Cox and Brentz figure to be Top 10 draft picks, but still some questions remain about their professional future.  For one, Cox is a draft eligible sophomore, which means he has the ability to return to college for his junior year if he does not like the offer he is getting from whatever team drafts him. 

As for Brentz, he hit 465/535/930 with 28 home runs and 19 doubles in 2009.  One special assistant of a team picking in the Top 10 said "we've already had conversations about this kid and our scouts love him. We're a little afraid he won't be available when we pick. That should tell you something."

Recently, a number of respected baseball media outlets have released their respective lists of the top number of prospects heading into the 2010 season.  These lists include Keith Law of espn.com's Top 100, Jonathan Mayo's collection of top prospects starting with Scouting the Sally's Top 30, Oriolesprospects.com Top 20, Propects Paradise's Top 30, Camden Crazies Top 25, Dave Barr's Hot Corner Top 20, Prospect Junkie's Top 20, The Cardinal Nation's Top 40, Seth Stohs from sethspeaks.net's Top 20, and Mayo's Top 50.

Obviously this all represents opinion, but to get a better idea of the overall feel of the group Baseball Rumor Mill averaged the Top 20 rankings from all of the lists to come up with an aggregate ranking of the Top 20 prospects heading into 2010. 

The rankings were tabulated only evaluating the Top 20 of each list and a point value was assigned to each rank.  #1 = 20 points, #2 = 19 points, so on down to #20 = 1 point.  If a player was not listed in the Top 20 a NR indication was given and no points were awarded.  The rankings are based on aggregate point totals, though we also did an evaluation of point totals after dropping the highest ranking and lowest ranking.  For instance, Desmond Jennings finished fifth overall in aggregate, but would be tied for 3rd with Buster Posey after dropping each player's highest and lowest ranking.

To view the raw data, click here.

Not surprisingly, Jason Heyward and Stephen Strasburg were significantly ahead of the field at the #1 and #2 spot, respectively.  There seems to be a considerable drop in consensus after either Dustin Ackley at #12 or Madison Bumgarner at #13.  Only ten players received Top 20 votes in all ten rankings.

Without further ado, the aggregate rankings

1. Jason Heyward, OF Atlanta
2. Stephen Strasburg, P Washington
3. Buster Posey, C San Francisco
4. Brian Matsuz, P Baltimore
5. Desmond Jennings, OF Tampa Bay
6. Carlos Santana, C Cleveland
7. Jesus Montero, C New York Yankees
8. Neftali Feliz, P Texas
9. Mike Stanton, OF Florida
10. Pedro Alvarez, 3B Pittsburgh
11. Justin Smoak, 1B Texas
12. Dustin Ackley, OF Seattle
13. Madison Bumgarner, P San Francisco
14. Aroldis Chapman, P Cincinnati
15. Domonic Brown, OF Philadelphia
16. Jeremy Hellickson, P Tampa Bay
17. Martin Perez, P Texas
18. Alcides Escobar, SS Brewers
19. Wade Davis, P Tampa Bay
20. Chris Carter, 1B Oakland

Less than a year after being the #1 draft pick, Strasburg rates as the #2 prospect in baseball

Much like with Stephen Strasburg in the 2009 draft, Bryce Harper is universally considered to be the obvious #1 pick of the 2010 draft, coming in June.  But who's #2?  Ultimately, Dustin Ackley was universally accepted as the #2 player behind Strasburg in 2009, will Jameson Taillon fill that role behind Harper in 2010?  Baseball Rumor Mill thinks so and also provides the rest of our Top Ten players of the 2010 MLB Draft.

10. James Paxton, RHP, Kentucky: Paxton was originally taken with the 37th overall pick in the 2009 draft, but was unable to sign with the Blue Jays and has returned to Kentuckey for his senior year.  Paxton is a hard thrower who also has a good slider, but needs to improve his control.

9. Stetson Allie, RHO, St. Edward HS, OH: Allie continues to play both the field and pitch, but most scouts agree that his professional future is as a pitcher.  Despite control issues, he was throwing 97 against some of the top amateur competition at the AFLAC All-Star game - the type of speed that really gets attention.

8. Manny Machado, SS, Brito Miami Private HS, FL: Before his play with Team USA at the COPABE "AAA" Pan American Championships, some scouts were concerned about Machado's defense.  While Machado's defense was unremarkable during play, this bat was spectacular.  In pool play, Machado hit 435/536/739 with two home runs, nine RBI and nine runs scored in six games.Continue Reading...

Keith Law and Jason Churchill from espn.com were monitoring the signings going down on the deadline to sign 2009 draft picks. Let's recap of what happened.

For a full list of all of the 1st round signings, click here.

The deadline for players to sign is August 17, 2009

#1 Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals - After plenty of speculation that he would not sign, Strasburg inked a $15M signing bonus, the highest in MLB history.
#2 Dustin Ackley, Seattle Mariners - Signed for $7.5M. His deal was at first thought to be $9.5, but those early reports were erroneous.
#3 Donovan Tate, San Diego Padres - Instead of going back to UNC to play football, Tate signed with the Padres for $6.25M
#6 Zach Wheeler, San Francisco Giant - Signed for $3.3M.
#9 Jacob Turner, Detroit Tigers - Was looking for Rick Porcello-like money and got close to it - signed for $5.5M
#11 Tyler Matzek, Colorado Rockies - Allegedly needed to "break the bank" with his deal and signed for $3.9M
#12 Aaron Crow, Kansas City Royals - Still has not signed, but is not subject to the Aug 17th deadline.
#13 Grant Green, Oakland As - Received a $2.75M signing bonus.
#14 Matt Purke, Texas Rangers - Did not sign and will head to college.
#15 Alex White, Cleveland Indians - As expected, White signed for a bit less than Minor did: $2.25M.
#19 Shelby Miller, St. Louis Cardinals - Received a signing bonus of $2.875M
#22 Kyle Gibson, Minnesota Twins - Signed a $1.8M contract.
#29 Slade Heathcott, New York Yankees - Signed a $2.2M contract.
#30 LeVon Washington, Tampa Bay Rays - Ultimately did not sign with the Rays.

Jason Churchill of espn.com has a TON of draft signing news to share

• While half of the 2008 first round signed before August 1st, only twelve have signed so far in 2009. For an update on the status of first round draft picks, click here.
• Major league baseball lowered their slot recommendations for 2009, but many players who are deemed "slot picks" (i.e., taken higher than they should have been simply so they'll sign for less) still are not signing because they're looking for 2008 money. Nick Franklin (#27 to Seattle) and LeVon Washington (#30 to Tampa Bay) are two candidates for this.
• Scott Boras, head of team-Stephen Strasburg, is still talking about a $50M contract for his client. That's still unlikely.
• Dustin Ackley, is looking for Mark Teixeira-money - a $9.5M signing bonus. The Mariners figure to offer him somewhere in between that and the industry standard of $6M.
• Donovan Tate has a slightly earlier deadline of August 15th, the day that UNC football players have to report to school. While everyone expects Tate to sign, he has expressed an interest in going back to UNC to play football.
• While most players have the leverage in negotiations, Aaron Crow does not because he's already held out once. He's currently asking for $3M, but the Royals are balking. Crow's only option is to hold out, go back to the Independent League and do the process all over again for another year. Seems unlikely, Crow went lower in the 2009 draft than 2008.
• The Yankees and Slade Heathcott are still not close.
• While he hasn't signed yet, Chad Jenkins figures to sign with Toronto eventually.
• The As and Max Stassi are "cautiously optimistic" about getting a deal done. Stassi was a 4th round draft pick.
• The Twins want to see Kyle Gibson throw before signing him to a contract. Gibson suffered a stress fracture in this throwing arm before the draft.
• While high schoolers Shelby Miller (#19 St. Louis) and Zach Wheeler (#6 San Francisco) are ultimately expected to sign, Jacob Turner (#9 Detroit), Tyler Matzek (#11 Colorado) and Matt Purke (#14 Texas) are far less certain. Matzek has been heavily rumored to be headed to Oregon for three years of college baseball.

The August 17th deadline to sign plays from the 2009 MLB Draft is fast approaching. We'll use this page to update the signing status of all the first round picks.

The deadline for players to sign is August 17, 2009

1. Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals - Despite speculation that he would not signed, agreed to a $15M contract. (updated 8/17/09)
2. Dustin Ackley, Seattle Mariners - Agreed to a $7.5M signing bonus. (updated 8/17/09)
3. Donovan Tate, San Diego Padres - Instead of going back to UNC to play football, signed a contract with a 6.25M signing bonus (updated 8/17/09)
4. Tony Sanchez, Pittsburgh Pirates - Signed a well-publicized contract before the draft
5. Matt Hobgood, Baltimore Orioles - Signed a contract
6. Zach Wheeler, San Francisco Giant - Signed for $3.3M (updated 8/17/09)
7. Mike Minor, Atlanta Braves - Signed a contract with a record $2.42M signing bonus (updated 8/8/09)
8. Mike Leake, Cincinnati Reds - Agreed to a $2.2M contract (updated 8/15/09)
9. Jacob Turner, Detroit Tigers - Received a Rick Porcello-like signing bonus of $5.5M (updated 8/17/09)
10. Drew Storen, Washington Nationals - Signed a contract
11. Tyler Matzek, Colorado Rockies - Rumors were that it would take a lot of money to keep Matzek away from Oregon: signed for $3.3M (updated 8/17/09)
12. Aaron Crow, Kansas City Royals - Agreed to a $3M contract with the Royals (updated 9/21/09)
13. Grant Green, Oakland As - Agreed to a $2.75M signing bonus (updated 8/15/09)
14. Matt Purke, Texas Rangers - Decided to go to college instead of signing with the Rangers (updated 8/17/09)
15. Alex White, Cleveland Indians - Got a bit less than Minor, $2.25M signing bonus (updated 8/17/09)
16. Bobby Borchering, Arizona Diamondbacks - Agreed to a contract with a $1.8M signing bonus (updated 8/15/09)
17. AJ Pollock, Arizona Diamondbacks - Signed a contract
18. Chad James, Florida Marlins - Agreed to a $1.7M contract (updated 8/15/09)
19. Shelby Miller, St. Louis Cardinals - Inked a $2.875M signing bonus (updated 8/17/09).
20. Chad Jenkins, Toronto Blue Jays - Signed for $1.359M (updated 8/15/09)
21. Jiovanni Mier, Houston Astros - Signed a contract
22. Kyle Gibson, Minnesota Twins - Signed a $1.8M contract (updated 8/17/09)
23. Jared Mitchell, Chicago White Sox -Signed a contract
24. Randal Grichuk, Los Angeles Angels -Signed a contract
25. Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels - Signed a contract
26. Eric Arnett, Milwaukee Brewers - Signed a contract
27. Nick Franklin, Seattle Mariners - Signed for $1.28M (updated 8/15/09)
28. Reymond Fuentes, Boston Red Sox - Signed a contract
29. Slade Heathcott, New York Yankees - Agreed to a $2.2M signing bonus (updated 8/17/09)
30. LeVon Washington, Tampa Bay Rays - Ultimately did not sign with the Rays (updated 8/17/09)
31. Brett Jackson, Chicago Cubs - Signed a contract
32. Tim Wheeler, Colorado Rockies - Signed a contract

Jason Churchill of espn.com has a signings update from the 2009 MLB Draft class.

For an update on the status of first round draft picks, click here.

• Only three of the top ten picks have signed: Tony Sanchez - #4 with Pittsburgh, Matt Hobgood - #5 with Baltimore and Drew Storen - #10 with Washington.
• Scott Boras represents six of the top ten picks and will likely take all of them to the Aug 17 deadline. Negotiations with the #1 pick Stephen Strasburg (Washington), #2 pick Dustin Ackley (Mariners) and #3 pick Donovan Tate (Padres) have not progressed very far and all three are Boras clients.
• The #11 pick, Tyler Matzek, still has not signed with Colorado and is inching closer to going to college at Oregon. A report form the Denver Post indicates that the sides are still not close on any agreement. Matzek has also been told he can play the field while not pitching at Oregon, something he would not be able to do in the Rockies system, for the moment anyway.
• Matt Purke could be another high school pitcher who, along with Matzek, could go to college instead of signing. The #14 pick overall by the Texas Rangers, Purke has very high signing demands and with their recent financial trouble, the Rangers might not be able to accomodate.
• Mike Minor, the #7 pick, and the Braves are making progress towards signing a contract.
• When Minor signs, that will be the first domino to fall for the rest of the college pitchers drafted beneath him. The Reds (#8 Mike Leake), Royals (#12 Aaron Crow) and Indians (#15 Alex White) are all waiting to see what Minor signs for before finalizing deals with their players.
• There is word at the bottom of this Keith Law posting that Wil Myers is close to signing for $2M (despite being a fourth round draft pick) with the Royals.

The 2010 MLB Draft class might not have the star power at the top that the 2009 MLB Draft class did (Stephen Strasburg, Dustin Ackley) or be as loaded as the 2011 draft class (Sonny Gray, Alex Meyer, Anthony Rendon, Gerrit Cole and Danny Hultzen) but there's plenty of talent to track.

College Bats

• Bryce Brentz, OF, Middle Tennessee State
• Christian Colon, SS, Cal-State Fullerton
• Derek Dietrich, SS/3B, Georgia Tech
• Yasmani Grandal, C, Miami
• Josh Rutledge, SS, Albama
• Ross Wilson, 3B, Albama
• Blake Forsythe, C, Tennessee
• Leon Landry, OF, LSU
• Andy Wilkins, 1B, Arkansas
• Micah Gibbs, C, LSU

College Arms

• Anthony Ranaudo, RHP, LSU
• Justin Grimm, RHP, Georgia
• Drew Pomeranz, LHP, Mississippi
• Nick Tepesch, RHP, Missouri
• Matt Harvey, RHP, UNC
• Kevin Rhoderick, RHP, Oregon State
• Josh Osich, LHP, Oregon State
• Kyle Blair, RHP, San Diego
• Chris Hernandez, LHP, Miami
• Brandon Workman, RHP, Texas
• Chad Bettis, RHP, Texas
• Alex Wimmers, RHP, Ohio State

High School Bats

• Trey Griffin, OF, Martin Luther King HS, GA
• Austin Wilson, Harvard-Westlake School, CA
• Kris Bryant, SS/3B, Bonanza HS, NV
• Krey Bratsen, OF, Bryan HS, TX
• Nick Castellanos, 3B, Archbishop McCarthy HS, FL
• Yordy Cabrera, SS/RHP, Lakeland HS, FL
• Reggie Golden, Wetumpka HS, AL
• Taylor Lindsey, OF, Desert Mountain HS, AZ
• Marcus Littlewood, SS, Pineview HS, UT

High School Arms

• AJ Cole, RHP, Oveida HS, FL
• Jameson Taillon, RHP, The Woodlands HS, TX
• Stetson Allie, RHP/SS, St. Edward HS, OH
• Zach Lee, RHP, McKinney HS, TX
• Justin O'Connor, RHP/SS, Cowan HS, IN
• Kevin Gausman, RHP, Grandview HS, CO
• Rudy Acosta, RHP, Mt. Miguel HS, CA
• Cam Bedrosian, RHP, East Coweta HS, GA

The 2009 MLB Draft is over and that means it's time to move on to the 2010 MLB Draft Previews.

High School

• Cameron Bedrosian, RHP, East Coweta HS, GA: The son of Steve Bedrosian has a low-90s fastball to go with a biting curveball and a decent changeup.
• Yordy Cabrera, SS, Lakeland HS, FL: Cabrera also pitches, but most predict is professional future is as an infield.  His father is a minor league coach with the Tigers.
• AJ Cole, RHP, Oveida HS, FL: At 6'5" and 190lbs, he's a scouts dream who can see him filling out his fram and improving on his 90-93 speed already.
• Kaleb Cowart, SS/RHP, Cook County HS, GA: Cowart would prefer to play the field, but scouts are split on whether he'd be a better hitter or pitcher. 
• Jameson Taillon, RHP, The Woodlands HS, TX: Taillon is already hitting mid-90s with his fastball and has a nice curve to go with it.

College

• Christian Colon, SS, Cal-State Fullerton: Colon played every game for an undefeated Team USA over the summer and is hitting .352 for the Titans this year.
• Matt Harvey, RHP, UNC: The current baseball factory, Harvey joins teammates Dustin Ackley and Alex White at the College World Series.
• Drew Pomeranz, LHP, Mississippi: In 2009 he was 8-4 with a 3.40 ERA over 16 starts. He struck out 124 and walked just 37 over 95 1/3.  Great numbers.
• Anthony Ranaudo, RHP, LSU: Another player who will be at the College World Series, Ranaudo was 10-3 with a 2.95 ERA, striking out 147 over 109 2/3 IP and keeping hitters to a .198 average in 2009.
• Victor Sanchez, 3B, San Diego: An injury limited his 2008 to just 28 games, but the pre-season All-American will be on everybody's radar next year.