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MLB Draft Analysis: Day One

Keith Law of espn.com provided a reaction to the draft picks from Day 1 of the 2009 MLB Draft. For Day 2 analysis, click here.

Best picks of the first round

  • Tyler Matzek, Colorado Rockies, #11 overall: He slid because of signability concerns and the Rockies benefited.
  • Shelby Miller, St. Louis Cardinals, #19 overall: Like Matzek, he fell because of contract demands.
  • Kyle Gibson, Minnesota Twins, #20 overall: The stress fracture in Gibson's throwing arm scared many teams off, but so long as it heals, the Twins got a steal.

Worst picks of the first round

  • Tony Sanchez, Pittsburgh Pirates, #4 overall: It's not that Sanchez is not a first round player, but the Pirates reached too high at #4. The reason was a pre-draft deal that saved the Pirates some money, but they passed on too much talent.
  • Randal Grichuk, Los Angeles Angles, #24 overall: Not even in Law's Top 100
  • Nick Franklin, Seattle Mariners, #27 overall: Franklin does not have much upside along with below average power and mediocre defense at best.

More Thoughts

2009 MLB Draft Preview, 6/8: Scouting Notes

Jason Churchill of espn.com gives us a nice update from the NCAA Super Regionals this past weekend.

  • Alex White recovered nicely from a difficult finish to his season with an excellent performance against East Carolina.  An NL club's area scout felt he should go in the Top 10.
  • Dustin Ackley continues to impress scouts and get rave praise: "His best tool is his makeup -- he's a bunch of above-average tools rolled into one doggone good package."
  • Jared Mitchell continues to befuddle scouts who do not know how to project a player who impresses, but hasn't fully focused on baseball while playing football at LSU as well.  Churchill feels he is similar to Jacque Jones or Mike Cameron.
  • One scout felt that DJ LeMahieu, a draft eligible sophomore has looked good, but could benefit from another year in college.
  • Billy Bullock blew a save for Florida against Southern Mississippi and showed some weaknesses to scouts.  He continually threw fastballs, often with very little command.  Nevertheless, he still projects as a solid reliever in the big leagues.
  • Mike Leake: "Leake is just a good, solid right-handed pitcher with command of three or four quality pitches," said an AL club's West Coast area scout.
  • Jason Kipnis may not find a home in center fielder in the major leagues, but still should warrant consideration because of his bat.

One NL VP of scouting had some interesting comments about the 2009 MLB Draft class:

"[The class is] not one you want to stretch your budget for in terms of bonuses unless you're a club with money to spare. But those that aren't drafting high but have a pick in the right spot after the first 20 and maybe an extra pick, too, they're going to get two top-10 or -15 players, if they want to spend. This is what's wrong with the draft.  The teams that need the help are drafting in the top 10, but since they can't afford the best players sometimes, they pass, sending that player to a 'have' team. It's why there is a lot of talk about trading draft picks.  Come the end of the draft, many of the have-nots will have draft classes that pale in comparison to those that had fewer picks and drafted 20 slots lower. That's not the end result we all want with the draft. Baseball has to look at that and the slotting system and make some changes."

Great article here about the scouting and drafting process from February through the draft.  The article talks about the Phillies, but could truthfully be applied to any team.

NCAA Tournament Draft Watch: Prospects By Team

Jonathan Mayo of mlb.com teased out which 2009 MLB Draft prospects to watch for on the various teams which have made the NCAA college baseball tournament. 

Boston College: Tony Sanchez, C; Mike Belifore, LHP
Texas A&M: Brooks Raley, LHP; Alex Wilson, RHP
Miami: Ryan Jackson, SS
Arizona State: Mike Leake, RHP; Jason Kipnis, OF
Clemson: Chris Dwyer, LHP; Ben Paulson, 1B
Oklahoma State: Andy Oliver, LHP
South Carolina: Sam Dyson, RHP
North Carolina: Dustin Ackley, OF/1B; Alex White, RHP; Kyle Seager, 2B/3B
Vanderbilt: Mike Minor, LHP
Indiana: Eric Arnett, RHP; Matt Bashore, LHP; Josh Phegley, C
Georgia: Rich Poythress, 1B
UC Irvine: Joe Kelly, RHP
San Diego State: Stephen Strasburg, RHP
Fresno State: Tommy Mendonca, 3B
Mississippi: Jordan Henry, OF
Missouri: Kyle Gibson, RHP
Rice: Ryan Berry, RHP
Kansas State: AJ Morris, RHP
LSU: Jared Mitchell, OF; DJ LeMahieu, 2B
Baylor: Kendal Volz, RHP; Aaron Miller OF/LHP