Derek Lowe
Rumors

The Tigers payroll was over $115M in 2009 and despite a competitive playoff run to the very end of the season, the team is looking to pare down its payroll for 2010 and moving Miguel Cabrera could save the team a lot of money.  Detroit has already openly shopped outfielder Curtis Granderson ($23.75M left on his contract from 2010-2012) and pitcher Edwin Jackson (arbitration eligible and due for a big raise) and not recieved too many bites.  Cabrera's contract blows away that of Granderson and Jackson, as he's set to make the following in each year of his deal: 10:$20M, 11:$20M, 12:$21M, 13:$21M, 14:$22M, 15:$22M. 

Despite being owed $126M over the next six years, there will still be interest in Cabrera because of his immense productivity.  Some potentially interested teams include:

Red Sox: David Ortiz and Mike Lowell come off the books after 2010 and if the Red Sox can convince the Tigers to give them some financial relief in 2010, the money might work out.

Angels: When Cabrera was traded from Florida to Detroit, the Angels were heavily involved in the bidding and would be happy to take Cabrera now, two years later.

Mets: With Carlos Delgado's likely departure, the Mets have a hole at first base that Cabrera could fill.

White Sox: Similar to the Red Sox, the White Sox remove Paul Konerko from the books after 2010 and Cabrera would fill in nicely.

Giants: They are in desperate need of offense, but already have two big contracts in Barry Zito and Aaron Rowand and would need to put Pablo Sandoval somewhere.

Mariners: Resigning Felix Hernandez is their priority, but Cabrera would be a big addition to their anemic offense.

Braves: Much like the Giants, they could really use the offensive help, but may lack the financial flexilibity to bring on Cabrera.  Moving Derek Lowe or Javier Vazquez would allieviabe some financial constraints.

Financial reasons will force the Tigers to try and move Miguel Cabrera this off season

Jayson Stark from espn.com has a new article up with plenty of off season rumors.

• Milton Bradley appears to have three different suitors: Rays, Rangers and Jays. However, Bradley is owed $21M over the remainder of his contact, so the Cubs will likely have to take on a bad contract in return.
• The Marlins had discussions about trading Dan Uggla with the Giants and Rangers.
• Rather than bid on Jason Bay or Matt Holliday, the Yankees seem content to try and resign Johnny Damon or Hideki Matsui.
• Derek Lowe's contract is becoming burdensome for the Braves, especially as they look to extend Javier Vazquez. They'll try to move Lowe and hope to get a hitter in return for him.
• The Phillies are considering Placido Polanco, Mark DeRosa and Adrian Beltre at third base.

Johnny Damon is an off season priority for the Yankees

Everyone has heard about Stephen Strasburg and how the Nationals will selected the San Diego State phenom RHP with the #1 overall pick of the 2009 MLB Draft.  What about the other top pitchers?  Steve Henson of Yahoo! Sports gives us a preview of those who are likely to go in the first round

• Stephen Strasburg - The only way Strasburg doesn't go first is if his advisor's, Scott Boras, contract demands are too much for Washington.
• Aarow Crow - He was selected by the Nationals last year with the #9 pick, but famously couldn't come to terms with Washington and has pitched sporadically for the Fort Worth Cats.  He figures to go somewhere in between #2 to the Mariners and #5 to the Orioles.
• Mike Minor - Many scouts feel that Minor is only a year away from pitching in the majors which makes him attractive.  Some scouts also think that the Minor we're seeing now is the best he'll be which could scare teams off.
• Alex White - White had a tremendous career at UNC that was tarnished by poor outings in the ACC tournament and opening round of the NCAA tournament.  He did pitch well in Saturday's super regional, but the damage may already have been done to his draft stock.
• Tanner Scheppers - While with Fresno State last year, a mysterious shoulder injury kept him on the sidelines while his team won the NCAA title.  He dropped to the second round in 2008 and did not sign with the Pirates, instead playing for the St. Paul Saints.  If he lasted to the middle of the first round, it'd be a surprise.
• Chad Jenkins - His draft stock has been rising with the quality of his change up, but he also boasts a good fastball and slider.  Many predict that he'll end up on the Nationals with Strasburg as the #10 pick.  
• Kyle Heckathorn - Jenkins teammate, he started the season ranked ahead of his teammate, but has since fallen below him.  That's more praise of Jenkins than an indictment of Heckathorn who has thrown hard all year and may be a closer at the professional level.
• Mike Leake - His height, 5-11, is figuratively keeping him down as every other metric seemingly used to indicate pitching success he has.
• Rex Brothers - The proverbial "live arm" Brothers needs to develop a changeup and improve his control.
• Eric Arnett - Scouts compare his large frame to Derek Lowe and Josh Johnson.
• Drew Storen - Storen could be attractive for teams looking for more immediate help.  He's already a reliever in college and thus has had a small work load on his pitching shoulder.
• James Paxton - Positives: 95mph fastball, hard slider.  Negatives: funky arm motion, command needs improvement.
• Kyle Gibson - The "forearm stiffness" Gibson was suffering is infact a stress fracture in his arm that could really hurt his draft stock. 
• Andrew Oliver - A major prospect in 2008, Oliver has had a difficult season and seen his draft stock plummet.

Back in October, we posted the 2009 MLB Draft Order. Baseball America has since updated the draft order to include the free agent compensation changes.

1) Nationals (59-102)
2) Mariners (61-101)
3) Padres (63-99)
4) Pirates (67-95)
5) Orioles (68-93)
6) Giants (72-90)
7) Braves (72-90)
8) Reds (74-88)
9) Tigers (74-88)
10) Nationals (compensation for failure to sign 2008 first round selection, Aaron Crow)
11) Rockies (74-88)
12) Royals (75-87)
13) Athletics (75-86)
14) Rangers (79-83)
15) Indians (81-81)
16) Diamondbacks (82-80)
17) Diamondbacks (compensation from Dodgers for Orlando Hudson)
18) Marlins (84-77)
19) Cardinals (86-76)
20) Blue Jays (86-76)
21) Astros (86-75)
22) Twins (88-75)
23) White Sox (89-74)
24) Angels (compensation from Mets for Francisco Rodriguez)
25) Angels (compensation from Yankees for Mark Teixeira).
26) Brewers (90-72)
27) Mariners (compensation from Phillies for Raul Ibanez)
28) Red Sox (95-67)
29) Yankees (compensation for failure to sign 2008 first round selection, Gerrit Cole)
30) Rays (97-65)
31) Cubs (97-64)
32) Rockies (compensation from Angels for Brian Fuentes)

When teams finish with the same record, the tiebreaker (and higher pick) goes to the club with the worst record the previous year.

Supplemental First-Round Picks
33. Mariners (compensation for loss of Raul Ibanez)
34. Rockies (compensation for loss of Brian Fuentes)
35. Diamondbacks (compensation for loss of Orlando Hudson)
36. Dodgers (compensation for loss of Derek Lowe)
37. Blue Jays (compensation for loss of AJ Burnett)
38. White Sox (compensation for loss of Orlando Cabrera)
39. Brewers (compensation for loss of CC Sabathia)
40. Angels (compensation for loss of Mark Teixeira)
41. Diamondbacks (compensation for loss of Juan Cruz)
42. Angels (compensation for loss of Francisco Rodriguez)
43. Reds (compensation for loss of Jeremy Affeldt)
44. Rangers (compensation for loss of Milton Bradley)
45. Diamondbacks (compensation for loss of Brandon Lyon)
46. Twins (compensation for loss of Dennys Reyes)
47. Brewers (compensation for loss of Brian Shouse)
48. Angels (compensation for loss of Jon Garland)
49. Pirates (for failure to sign 2008 second-rounder Tanner Scheppers)

Second-Round Changes
56. Dodgers (compensation from Braves for Derek Lowe)
60. Diamondbacks (compensation from Royals for Juan Cruz)
61. White Sox (compensation from Athletics for Orlando Cabrera)
73. Brewers (compensation from Yankees for CC Sabathia)
76. Yankees (for failure to sign 2008 second-rounder Scott Bittle)

Third-Round Changes
104. Blue Jays (compensation from Yankees for AJ Burnett)

Supplemental Third-Round Picks
111. Astros (for failure to sign 2008 third-rounder Chase Davidson)

Ken Rosenthal has put together a huge column today. Let's take a look.

• Rosenthal predicts that John Lackey will be the biggest free agent pitcher for the 2010 class. Lackey's numbers are better than AJ Burnett who recently signed a five year $82.5M contract. The Angels do not seem likely to top that offer, however, and Rosenthal believes that Lackey could probably receive a very good offer on the open market.
• Scott Boras' ability to get a $60M, four year offer from the Braves for Derek Lowe when the only other known offer was for three years and $36M from the Mets can probably be attributed to the desperation the Braves faced after losing out on Burnett, John Smoltz and Jake Peavy.
• However Boras's approach does not appear to be working with Jason Varitek. According to Rosenthal, most executives view Boras and Varitek declining arbitration as foolish.
• The Dodgers are seemingly bidding against themselves for the services of Manny Ramirez, but there seems to be growing fear that if they do not include a third year, Ramirez would follow up on his threat to retire.
• There are rumors that the Red Sox have shown interest in free agent Adam Dunn, though it's hard to fit the pieces together to have the rumors make sense. Dunn would likely play first base for the Red Sox moving Kevin Youkilis to third and necessitating a trade of Mike Lowell. This made sense for a superior fielder like Mark Teixeira, but Dunn is average at best. One benefit to signing Dunn is that because the Diamondbacks did not offer him arbitration, the Sox would not lose any draft picks.
• Dunn and Bobby Abreu seem likely to get one year offers because of the thin 2010 free agent class. Matt Holliday will be available, but the talent pool after him is shallow. Teams who did not spend in 2009 (i.e., anyone not named the Yankees) are gearing up for a run at Holliday in 2010.
• Rosenthal believes that the Rangers are still highly unlikely to trade Michael Young. He is owed $59M over the next five years and $9.24M in deferred payments starting in 2016.
• The Yankees believe that Xavier Nady will be easily moved if necessary. Even if the team has to offer him arbitration for 2010, his current salary is only $3.35M, so the increase would not be too dramatic.
• Jason Isringhausen has four teams on the radar, one of which is the Tigers. The Cardinals are have said to not rule out bringing Isringhausen back.
• Randy Wolf turned down a three year $28.5M offer early in the off season from the Astros and seems unlikely to command that much anymore from limited suitors like the Dodgers.
• Despite a need for a bat, the Rangers are not going to trade for the White Sox Jermaine Dye or try budget free agents Frank Thomas or Nomar Garciaparra. They'd rather stick with Hank Blalock.
• The Red Sox and Diamondbacks are denying on being close with a deal that would send Miguel Montero to Boston.

Let's take a look at The New York Post's Joel Sherman's latest entry:

• Despite failed attempts to sign Mark Teixeira and trade for Hanley Ramirez, the Red Sox are still interested in acquiring a star player. 
• Derek Lowe will not accept the same annual salary ($12M) and less total money ($36M vs. $48M) than Carlos Silva.  The Mets offer was three years, $36M.
• Sherman feels that Manny Ramirez signing with the Giants makes sense.
• The Mets are interested in Jason Marquis of the Cubs, but want to address a top of the rotation starter before moving on to a #5 starter like Marquis.

Buster Olney of espn.com has a new column and a new post up.  Let's take a look:

• The Brewers will consider Trevor Hoffman, Brandon Lyon and Braden Looper to fill their open closer's role via free agency.  If they do not sign a free agent, look for Carlos Villanueva to be the team's closer this spring.
• Brewers general manager Doug Melvin confirmed that trade talks between Milwaukee and New York over a possible Mike Cameron for Melky Cabrera trade are likely dead.
• The Dodgers are no longer interested in Derek Lowe even though his price tag continues to drop.  They are considering Hoffman, however.
• Orlando Cabrera figures to be impacted the most by Rafael Furcal spurning the Braves for the Dodgers.  OC looked headed to LA if Furcal stayed with the Braves, but now OC has fewer suitors, if any.  Miguel Tejada continues to pop up as a more reasonable alternative to Cabrera.
• Olney reports that the Mets are still trying to find someone to take Luis Castillo.  Good luck.

cbssports.com's Danny Knobler is reporting today that the Braves are not interested in free agent pitcher Derek Lowe and remain quiet about any further negotiations with the Padres to acquire Jake Peavy.  Knobler notes that Lowe's agent, Scott Boras, continues to demand close to the $16.5M per year that AJ Burnett received from the Yankees and that is perhaps why the Braves and many teams are staying away.  While the Braves were close to a deal for Peavy close to a month ago, attempts at last minute changes by the Padres broke down negotiations and they remain closed. 

Andy Pettitte's agents are allegedly telling interested teams that the free agent left handed pitcher has a three year, $36M offer on the table according to Jon Heyman of Sports Illustrated.  While the team that is offering the deal remains annonymous, this offer would vastly trump the one year, $10M deal on the table from the Yankees.  Many suspect that if Pettitte does not move quickly with the Yankees, he could end up on the outside looking in if the team goes after Ben Sheets or Derek Lowe.

Jayson Stark of espn.com took a look at the players who did not sign during this week's winter meetings and what the rest of the off season has in store for them:

• Mark Teixeira: The rumored offers are plentiful: eight years, $160M from the Nationals; seven years, $140M from the Orioles; seven years, $160M from the Angels. Scott Boras clients always take the highest bid, but how will Tex be able to spin taking slightly more money from the lowly Nationals?
• Manny Ramirez: The prevailing wisdom is that Teixeira signs with Boston, a non-starter destination for Ramirez, and the Tex sweepstatkes losers bid on Ramirez. But the Angels haven't expressed interest, the Nationals don't need outfielders and Orioles owner Peter Angelos is unlikely to make a larger offer to Ramirez. What does it all mean? Wherever Ramirez plays, he won't have a home until at least February.
• Rafael Furcal: His agent alleges that the Royals, As, Blue Jays and Dodgers are all interested in Furcal and know that it will take anywhere from $27M to $40M to get a contract signed. However, most people think that the market and interest in Furcal is not quite the picture his agent is painting.
• AJ Burnett: The equation seems pretty simple: either take the money from the Yankees or decide to take a discount and play in Atlanta.
• Derek Lowe: Perhaps the market for Lowe is not as hot as once thought. It appears that neither the Phillies nor the Red Sox have made an offer yet. The Yankees could quickly drop out if Burnett and Andy Pettitte sign. The Mets may be interested, but only at a discount.
• Raul Ibanez: There appears to be serious interest from the Phillies, Angels and Mets.
• Milton Bradley: The Cubs and Rays are rumored to be the bidders for Bradley's bat.
• Adam Dunn: He's alleged to be the back up plan in Washington if Teixeira does not land in DC.
• Brian Fuentes: The market has significantly cooled with the Mets and Indians finding closers, but St. Louis still remains an option.
• Trevor Hoffman: There seems to be even less of a market for Hoffman who's receive nibbles, but nothing serious from the Dodgers, Tigers, Brewers and Rangers.