Clay Buchholz
Rumors

As the Roy Halladay hot stove begins to fire up, the Red Sox hope to take much of the drama out of the situation by acquiring the right handed pitcher before the start of the winter meetings on December 7th, Peter Abraham of The Boston Globe reports.  In return for Halladay, the Jays are reportedly asking for top Sox prospect Casey Kelly and emerging starter Clay Buchholz. 

For the Blue Jays, the move to trade Halladay is not a desire, but more a need based on Halladay's unwillingness to sign an extension with Toronto and hopes to play for a contending team.  With one year left on a three-year, $40M deal that Halladay signed before the 2008 season, the Jays hope to get as much as they can for the perennial Cy Young contender this off season, rather than waiting until July.  They'd also save the $15.75M that Halladay is owed in 2010. 

The Red Sox are not the only team interested in Halladay, not even within their own division.  Despite winning the world series, the Yankees still have holes in their pitching rotation, something they'd be happy to will with Halladay.  The Sox urgency is certainly an effort to get out in front of the Yankees where general manager Brian Cashman is waiting to receive his budget for the 2010 season before making any major moves.  The Blue Jays would likely ask for some of the Yankees top propsects like Austin Jackson or Jesus Montero along with either Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain. 

The Red Sox and Yankees will be in hot pursuit of Roy Halladay this off season

The Angels figure to be another team interested in Halladay if they are unable to retain free agent pitcher John Lackey.

Despite all the drama, espn.com's Buster Olney puts the odds of Halladay being traded at only 50/50.

Plenty of rumors to pass along this morning from Nick Cafardo's article in The Boston Globe. 

• If the Red Sox are able to land John Lackey that could allow them the freedom to trade Clay Buchholz to San Diego for Adrian Gonzalez.
• Speaking of the Red Sox, here's an interesting quote from one AL general manager: "The Red Sox could be the major player this off season if certain things fall together for them.  They still have enough chips in their farm system to make something happen."  Perhaps referring to A-Gone or maybe Roy Halladay.
• The Yankees will be involved in trade discussions for Halladay and seem likely to part with Phil Hughes or Joba Chamberlain.  You have to wonder who the bigger prospect is right now.  Our money is that teams would rather have Hughers over Chamberlain.
• The Twins and Brewers are "very interested" in Carl Pavano.
• John Smoltz is also on Milwaukee's radar, but they'll have competition from the Cardinals, who'd like to see Smoltz return.
• Gary Sheffield would like to return in 2010 and is more flexible about accepting a DH role than in the past.  

John Lackey could be the first domino in a busy off season for the Red Sox

The early serious bidders for John Lackey appear to be the Angles, Red Sox and Mets so far.  Buster Olney from espn.com heard that the Angels most recent offer to Lackey was a multi-year contract for a total of $72M. 

Though the Red Sox have plenty of pitching depth with Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, Daisuke Matsuzaka and Tim Wakefield, during the recent general manager meetings in Chicago, the Red Sox brass met with Lackey's agent. 

Similarly, the Mets general manager, Omar Minaya, met with Lackey's agent as well and was very encouraged by the conversation. 

Buster Olney ranks the Mariners as the team most likely to land Lackey in his rankings:

1. Mariners
2. Angels
3. Brewers
4. Mets
5. Red Sox
6. Yankees

John Lackey will have plenty of suitors this off season

Apparently the Red Sox and Mariners discussed a monster deal that would have sent Felix Hernandez to Boston for five players from the following list:

1. Clay Buchholz
2. Daniel Bard
3. Justin Masterson
4. Nick Hagadone
5. Michael Bowden
6. Felix Doubront
7. Josh Reddick
8. Yamaico Navarro

When that deal didn't work out, the Padres got involved and the deal would have sent Hernandez to Boston, Adrian Gonzalez, Buchholz and a few other Red Sox prospects and the Padres would have received Brandon Morrow, Phillippe Aumont and Carlos Triunfel along with more Sox prospects.  Wow. 

Since the trade deadline, Bard has now become untouchable.  Sorta.

With the Phillies now out of the hunt for Roy Halladay after acquiring Cliff Lee this afternoon, things should get more interesting in the coming days before Friday's 4pm trade deadline.

• Toronto general manager JP Riccardi believes he'll keep Halladay and try to compete in 2010. He'd have to be "wowed" to move Halladay now. That seems to make the most sense for Toronto at this point.
• The Red Sox appear to be the biggest player left to acquire Halladay. The team is still intent on keeping negotiations open with Toronto, but Ryan Westmoreland, Casey Kelly and Daniel Bard are off limits. One executive feels the Red Sox now have the best chance to acquire Halladay. Rumor has it the Jays have already turned down a Red Sox proposal. Both sides are denying the Clay Buchholz, Michael Bowden and Westmoreland offer for Halladay, but something was declined.
• Halladay will accept a deal to Boston and would consider one to Texas. Remember, Roy has a full no-trade clause, but isn't expected to invoke it if he's traded. If Texas can figure out its financial situation, I still like them the best to acquire Halladay. Everything fits there in terms of need for the player and desperation to win along with ability to add payroll and prospects to move. More than any other team so far, including the Phillies. That's why Lee is in Philadelphia now and not Halladay.
• Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley are non-starters for the Dodgers in terms of acquiring Halladay. I don't think the Blue Jays would even be bold enough to ask for Billingsley.

Joel Sherman of the New York Post has a column full of rumors up. 

• As we've heard from multiple sources, the Red Sox and Rays have inquired about Cliff Lee and Victor Martinez from the Indians.  It's likely going to take a big prospect from either team to get a deal done with the Indians and the Rays are willing to trade Wade Davis, but the Sox will not part with Clay Buchholz.
• The Phillies, Brewers and Rangers are all interested in Lee.
• The Giants are interested in Victor Martinez.
• No matter who gets these players an AL executive is "1,000% confident" the Indians will move both to clear payroll.  Everyone is "confident" that Roy Halladay will be traded and the Indians will clear payroll, but when was the last time we've ever had a trade deadline with that much action?  Not to be Debbie Downer, but I wouldn't expect more than one of these guys to be traded.  My money is on Martinez, he's quietly been very average since starting off the season hitting .400.
• Another AL executive believes the Phillies will add some pitcher - Halladay, Lee or perhaps Jarrod Washburn - by Friday.  I'm not sure they're all that excited about parting with JA Happ or Kyle Drabek who would certainly have to be moved to get one of those guys.  Seems like a lot to give up for a team that is likely going to the playoffs already.
• The Padres are worried that Heath Bell could become an expensive closer on a bad team if they don't move him.  The Yankees have been interested for a while now.

8:41 PM: The latest rumor has the Jays asking for Clay Buchholz, Casey Kelly and another high level prospect, but Red Sox general manager Theo Epstein does not want to give up Buchholz and Kelly.

7:45 PM: The Roy Halladay rumor machine chugs along and is sure to gain steam as the week goes on. 

• Though there have been earlier reports that Blue Jays general manager JP Riccardi was instituting a July 28th deadline, that seams like nothing but talk.  Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that Riccardi is prepared to negotiatie until the 4pm deadline Friday.  
• The Blue Jays high asking price has taking the Rays out of discussions for Halladay for now.  However, Ed Price notes that the Rays are still interested in and Victor Martinez Cliff Lee from the Indians.  There's also the possibility that they deal Scott Kazmir to the Angels. That last one seems a bit out of left field, pardon the pun.
• Negotiations between the Phillies and Blue Jays do not appear to be going very far at the moment according to Jayson Stark of espn.com.  The Blue Jays are still asking for JA Happ, Kyle Drabek and Dominic Brown.  Some think that the what the Jays are askign for is reasonable.  Jon Heyman says that there is a "5% chance" the Jays and Phillis consumate something.  The Phillies may move to Cliff Lee if Halladay doesn't work out.
• Gordon Edes of Yahoo! Sports heard that the Red Sox might offer Clay Buchholz, Daniel Bard, Michael Bowden, Junichi Tazawa and Casey Kelly.  This seems crazy to me.  That's the Red Sox top 3, arguably 4 with Tazawa, piching prospects.  Nevertheless, word out of Boston is that the Red Sox are trying to do something, whether it be Halladay or Victor Martinez or someone else.
• Some of the Blue Jays expect Halladay to stay with the Jays.  So do I.
• The Yankees are not interested in trading away their prospects or adding any more salary to their bloated payroll.

Toronto general manager JP Riccardi has said that he is willing to listen to offers for Cy Young award winner Roy Halladay. The impetus for such an openness to trading a pitcher like Halladay is due to the Blue Jays struggles this season (a respectable 43-41, but fourth place and seven games back in the AL East) along with the remainder of the $14.25M that Halladay is owed for 2009 and the $15.75M that he is due for 2010. Halladay does have a full no trade clause, but unless he takes a Jake Peavy-like approach, it seems unlikely he'd restrict a trade.

The more interesting question is what it would really take to pry Halladay away from the Blue Jays. Josh Johnson, Ricky Nolasco and Hanley Ramirez from the Marlins? Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz and Jacoby Ellsbury from the Red Sox? In reality, neither team would do a deal such as that, but the example illustrates just how talented Halladay can be. It seems unlikely that the Blue Jays would settle for what the Twins got in return for Johan Santana, the only other pitcher who really fits in Halladay's class in terms of effectiveness and consistency. What would the Blue Jays need to let Halladay go?

The American League seems like an unlikely destination for Halladay. The Blue Jays are probably hesitant to trade him within the AL East (it wouldn't really help that fourth place standing) and no team in the AL Central requires the kind of firepower Halladay brings to win the division. The only reasonable destination in the American League would be Texas. They certainly have the talent within their farm system to get Halladay and a player of his talent level may be the only type of player the Rangers would be willing to part with some of their top prospects.

The NL East is similar to the AL Central in that it's anyone's division to win (save the Nationals). The Phillies would love to add Halladay (or anyone else who can throw above 88), but lack much in their farm system to acquire him. Florida certainly has the talent to interest the Blue Jays as mentioned above, but probably is not interested in adding payroll. The Cardinals seem like a possibility with respect to adding payroll and have some prospects the Blue Jays could be interested in.

Buster Olney of espn.com has a bunch of good trade fodder in his most recent post:

• The Red Sox have had about six different conversation regarding trading Brad Penny. However, most of these talks seem to include inquires into young pitchers like Manny Delcarmen, Clay Buchholz or Michael Bowden whom the team is reluctant to trade. The Phillies are a possible destination for Penny.
• Cincinnati is in the market for outfielders.
• Jeff Francoeur and the rest of the Braves outfield has been terrible and they are expected to look for replacements soon.
• Jack Wilson has been in deadline trade rumors for the better part of the last three seasons, but there might finally be a logical fit this season with the Red Sox.
• The Giants need a bat, preferably a corner outfielder, but are not finding much on the market.
• Troy Glaus is looking less and less likely to return to the Cardinals this year which means they need to find a long term solution to replace him. Mark DeRosa of the Indians and Garret Atkins of the Rockies seem like logical candidates.

While the other Ramirez, Manny Ramirez, has been dominating the headlines, Jon Heyman and Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated report that the Red Sox attempted to acquire Marlins star Hanley Ramirez for a large package of young players.  The attempt appears to come as a response to the Red Sox missing out on slugger Mark Teixeira who landed with the rival Yankees.  The Marlins are known to be interested in Jacoby Ellsbury and Clay Buchholz, but a deal would likely take at least one or two more star players.  Perhaps Lars Anderson, Michael Bowden, or Jed Lowrie, though that is just my speculation.