Carl Pavano
Rumors

The deadline for teams to offer arbitration to free agents was this past Tuesday and Keith Law of espn.com gives us his analysis of teams varying decisions to either offer or decline arbitration with their free agents.

• Billy Wagner was offered arbitration by the Red Sox and then signed with the Braves, giving the Red Sox the 20th overall pick in the 2010 draft along with a compensation pick.  Law loves that decision, but questions the Braves move, wondering how much value they'll get out of Wagner at the expense of the draft picks.  However, it seems likely that the Braves are anticipating losing Rafael Soriano or Mike Gonzalez making the draft picks a wash.  
• The Dodgers did not offer arbitration to Randy Wolf or Orlando Hudson, a clear indication that the team is in desperate financial difficulty and are afraid of the players actually accepting arbitration.  Both are Type A free agents meaning the Dodgers essentially gave up four draft picks if neither signed with LA. 
• Law agreed with the Giants decision not to offer Bengie Molina arbitration and hopes this means that the Buster Posey era - 5th overall pick of the 2008 draft - will start soon.

Is the Buster Posey era beginning in SF?

• Milwaukee did not offer Felipe Lopez arbitration, a curious decision.  Lopez only made $3.5M in 2009, did not have impressive HR, RBI or run totals and is represented by Scott Boras, so it seems unlikely that Lopez would have agreed to arbitration anyway.  Lopez is a Type B free agent and would have netted the Brewers two draft picks. 
• Similarly, the Angels raised some eyebrows by not offering Darren Oliver arbitration.  Oliver had a good year last year, likely would not cost much and as a Type A, if he left, would have netted the Angels two draft picks.  It's good news for Oliver, however, who might have had trouble finding suitors willing to give up a draft pick for him.
• Gregg Zaun and Brian Shouse were both offered arbitration by the Rays who would be ok whether the players accepted or rejected the offer.  Neither would have an unreasonable salary in 2010, but both are Type B free agents and would give the Rays a supplemental draft pick if they left. 
• The Twins have turned a "fringe prospect" into either 1.5 years of Carl Pavano or a half season of Pavano and a sandwich pick in the 2010 draft. 

Plenty of rumors to pass along this morning from Nick Cafardo's article in The Boston Globe. 

• If the Red Sox are able to land John Lackey that could allow them the freedom to trade Clay Buchholz to San Diego for Adrian Gonzalez.
• Speaking of the Red Sox, here's an interesting quote from one AL general manager: "The Red Sox could be the major player this off season if certain things fall together for them.  They still have enough chips in their farm system to make something happen."  Perhaps referring to A-Gone or maybe Roy Halladay.
• The Yankees will be involved in trade discussions for Halladay and seem likely to part with Phil Hughes or Joba Chamberlain.  You have to wonder who the bigger prospect is right now.  Our money is that teams would rather have Hughers over Chamberlain.
• The Twins and Brewers are "very interested" in Carl Pavano.
• John Smoltz is also on Milwaukee's radar, but they'll have competition from the Cardinals, who'd like to see Smoltz return.
• Gary Sheffield would like to return in 2010 and is more flexible about accepting a DH role than in the past.  

John Lackey could be the first domino in a busy off season for the Red Sox

Below is a list of starting pitchers that are eligible for free agency for the 2010 season, their age, current team, current contract and whether the player falls into a Type A or Type B free agent compensation status.

Free agent catchers
Free agent first basemen
Free agent second basemen
Free agent third basemen
Free agent shortstops
Free agent left fielders
Free agent center fielders
Free agent right fielders
Free agent middle relievers
Free agent closers

Brandon Backe, 32, Astros - 09:$1.55M
Miguel Batista, 39, Mariners - 07:$5.5M, 08:$9M, 09:$9M
Erik Bedard, 31, Mariners - 09:$7.75M (Type B)
Kris Benson, 34, Rangers - 09:$750K
Daniel Cabrera, 29, Diamondbacks - 09:$2.6M
Chris Capuano, 31, Brewers - 09:minor league contract
Aroldis Chapman, 22, No Team - No professional contracts
Bartolo Colon, 37, White Sox - 09:$1M
Jose Contreras, 38, Rockies - 07:$9M, 08:$10M, 09:$10M
Doug Davis, 34, Diamondbacks - 07:$5.5M, 08:$7.75M, 09:$8.75M (Type B)
Justin Duchscherer, 32, Athletics - (Type B)
Adam Eaton, 32, Rockies - 07:$6.875M, 08:$7.635M, 09:$8.5M, 10:$9M mutual option ($0.5M buyout)
Josh Fogg, 33, Rockies - 09:minor league contract
Jon Garland, 30, Dodgers - 09:$6.25M, 10:$10M mutual option ($2.5M buyout if club declines, $1M buyout if player declines) (Type B)
Tom Glavine, 44, Braves - 09:$1M
Mike Hampton, 37, Astros - 09:$2M
Rich Harden, 28, Cubs - 05:$0.5M, 06:$1M, 07:$2M 08:$4.5M, 09:$7M (Type B)
Mark Hendrickson, 36, Orioles - 09:$1.5M
Livan Hernandez, 35, Nationals - 09:minor league contract
Shawn Hill, 29, Nationals - 09:$775K
Jason Jennings, 31, Rangers - 09:$800K
Randy Johnson, 46, Giants - 09:$8M (Type B)
John Lackey, 31, Angels - 06:$3.01M, 07:$5.5M, 08:$7M, 09:$9M (Type A)
Cliff Lee, 31, Phillies - 06:$0.75M, 07:$2.75M, 08:$3.75M, 09:$5.75M, 10:$8M club option ($1M buyout) (Type A)
Braden Looper, 35, Brewers - 09:$4.75M, 10:$6.5M option ($1M buyout) (Type B)
Rodrigo Lopez, 34, Phillies - 09:minor league contract
Jason Marquis, 31, Rockies - 07:$4.75M, 08:$6.375M, 09:$9.875M (Type B)
Brett Myers, 29, Phillies - 07:$5M, 08:$8.5M, 09:$12M
Vicente Padilla, 32, Dodgers - 07:$9M, 08:$11M, 09:$12M (Type B)
Carl Pavano, 34, Twins - 09:$1.5M (Type B)
Brad Penny, 32, Giants - 09:$5M
Odalis Perez, 33, Nationals - 09:$850K
Andy Pettitte, 38, Yankees - 09:$5.5M (Type B)
Joel Pineiro, 31, Cardinals - 08:$5M, 09:$7.5M (Type B)
Sidney Ponson, 33, Royals - 09:$600K
Mark Prior, 28, Padres - 09:minor league contract
Horacio Ramirez, 30, Nationals - 09:$1.8M
Jason Schmidt, 37, Dodgers - 07:$12.5M, 08:$12M, 09:$12M
Ben Sheets, 31, No Team - 05:$4.5M, 06:$8.5M, 07:$10M, 08:$11M
John Smoltz, 43, Cardinals - 09:$400K
Brett Tomko, 37, Athletics - 09:minor league contract
Tim Wakefield, 43, Red Sox - 09:$4M, 10:$4M club option (Type B)
Jarrod Washburn, 35, Tigers - 06:$7.45M, 07:$9.85M, 08:$9.85M, 09:$10.35M
Todd Wellemeyer, 31, Cardinals - 09:$4.05M
Kip Wells, 33, Reds - 09:$500K
Randy Wolf, 33, Dodgers - 09:$5M (Type A)

Though the non-waiver trade deadline has passed, players can still be traded if they clear revocable waivers.  Simply put, if a team puts a player on waivers and no other team puts a claim in on that player, the team is then free to trade that player to another team.  If that player is claimed by another team, however, the first team can either pull that player off of waivers and they will not be able to trade the individual or allow the claiming team to keep the waived player and the claiming team assumes the entire contract responsibility. 

Jon Heyman of si.com broke down the list of players who will likely be put on waivers in to those who are "likely to clear", "could clear" and "unlikely to clear"

Likely To Clear

1. Bronson Arroyo - owed $17 over the remainder of 2009 and 2010
2. Adam Dunn - $12 is coming to him in 2010
3. Jose Guillen - $12 for 2010
4. Aaron Harang - over $25M in 2010 and 2011
5. Adrian Beltre - the remainder of his $12M in 2009
6. Aubrey Huff - the remainder of his $8M in 2009
7. Jason Giambi - the remainder of his $4M for 2009 and a $1.25M buyout for 2010 (or $6.5M contract)
8. Melvin Mora - the remainder of his $9M for 2009.  We already know he's not happy in Baltimore.
9. Juan Cruz - $2.25M in 09, $3.25M in 10, $4M option for 2011 or $500K buyout
10. Ty Wigginton - $2.5M in 09, $3.5M in 2010
11. Miguel Batista - $9M for 2009
12. Ron Mahay - $4M for 2009
13. Willie Bloomquist - $1.4M for 2009, $1.7M for 2010
14. Lyle Overbay - $7M in 2009, $7M in 2010
15. Willy Taveras - $2.25M in 2009, $4M in 2010

Could Clear

1. Jon Garland - remainder of $6.25M for 2009 plus a club buyout of $2.5M buyout for 2010 or a $10M contract
2. Doug Davis - $8.75M for 2009
3. Gil Meche - $22M for 2010 and 2011
4. Alex Rios - a staggering $63.2M from 2010-2014 AND a $1M buyout of a $13.5M club option in 2015.  Hard to imagine anyone taking on this contract or Toronto pulling him back.
5. Carl Pavano - $1.5M for 2009, but contract is LOADED with incentives.
6. Mark Hendrickson - $1.5M for 2009 with $500K in incentives
7. Jhonny Peralta - $3.4M for 2009, $4.6M for 2010, $250K buyout of $7M option for 2011
8. Jamey Carroll - $2.5M for 2009
9. Ron Villone - $600K

Unlikely To Clear

1. Roy Halladay - he wouldn't clear regardless of his contract, but he's owed $14.25M in 2009 and $15.75M for 2010
2. Felix Hernandez - the subject of a deadline blockbuster that never materialized, he's owed just the rest of his $3.8M in 2009, but is arbitration eligible.
3. Heath Bell - another arbitration eligible guy, he's only making $1.225M in 2009
4. Adrian Gonzalez - $3M for 2009 and $4.75M for 2010, he'd be arbitration eligible in 2011 if his team does not pick up his $5.5M option.
5. Marco Scutaro - just $1.1M for 2009, he's due a big raise in free agency for 2010 which is why the Jays would like to move him if possible.  Not likely.
6. Chad Qualls - arbitration guy making $2.5M for 2009
7. Michael Wuertz - only $1.1M, but arbitration eligible
8. Brian Bannister - $1.7M for 2009, but arbitration eligible
9. Josh Willingham - $2.95M for 2009 AND arbitration eligible
10. Gary Sheffield - a $14M salary that the Mets are only paying $400K of
11. David Eckstein - only $850K, but the Padres are trying to trim payroll
12. Jason Frasor - arbitration guy with $1.45M for 2009
13. Mark Teahen - $3.575M arbitration eligible

Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports has a new article up. Here are the highlights.

• Even though the Red Sox are unlikely to move Brad Penny, they're receptive to the idea. With Tim Wakefield and Daisuke Matsuzaka on the DL, this should really read that if the Sox got an offer they couldn't refuse, they'd trade Penny.
• Rosenthal reports that despite the Yankees need for more depth in their rotation, there's no way they'd go after Carl Pavano. I'm not really sure if this is even news worthy. Who on earth would think they'd go after Pavano?
• If the Dodgers are going to acquire Roy Halladay, Russell Martin is not someone the Blue Jays are interested in. He has struggled offensively and the Jays have a good young catcher, JP Arencibia, who'll be ready soon.
• If Pedro Martinez is ready to go before the trade deadline, the Phillies may look to move Rodrigo Lopez. The only question? Who would really be interested?
• The Rays would like to trade for Halladay or Cliff Lee, they just don't have the ability to take on their contracts and/or sign them long term.

Jason Churchill of espn.com compared the 1994 Draft against the 1995 Draft.  While neither draft we deep and the success rate of 1st round picks was below 25% for both years (some of the lowest percentages in the 41-year history of the draft), the 1995 draft gets the nod.  But, what do you think?

1994 Draft

No 1 Pick: Paul Wilson was the #1 pick for the Mets and was supposed to be part of a dynamic trio that included Bill Pulsipher and Jason Isringhausen.  He finished his career 40-58 with a 4.86 ERA that was beseiged by shoulder injuires.

Best Pick, 1st Round: Nomar Garciaparra, #12, Boston Red Sox

Value Pick, Any Round: Javier Vazquez, fifth round, #140 overall, Montreal Expos, Tim Hudson, 35th round, #961 overall, Oakland Athletics

Notable Pick: Jason Varitek, #14, Seattle Mariners, Paul Konerko, #13, Los Angeles Dodgers.

Worst Pick, First Round: Antone Williamson, #4, Milwaukee Brewers "Williamson spent seven seasons in the minors and just 24 games in the big leagues, hitting .204/.254/.259 in 54 at-bats."

Best Teams: Boston Red Sox - Along with Garciaparra, the Sox drafted Carl Pavano (13th round) and traded him with Tony Armas Jr. to the Expos for Pedro Martinez.

1995 Draft

No 1 Pick: Darin Erstad was selected first overall by the then California Angeles (now Los Angeles) and is still active today as a bench player for the Astros.  Erstad won a World Series with the Angels in 2002 and "has played 14 years in the big leagues and entered play this season with a career line of .283/.336/.407"

Best Pick, 1st Round: Roy Halladay, #17, Toronto Blue Jays

Value Pick, Any Round: Carlos Beltran, second round, #49 overall, Kansas City Royals

Notable Pick: Kerry Wood, #4, Chicago Cubs

Worst Pick, First Round: Jaime Jones, #6, Florida Marlins "The left-handed hitting Jones never reached the majors, hitting .265/.341/.404 in 10 season as a minor leaguer. Jones retired after the 2005 season."

Best Team Draft: California Angels - After Erstad the halos grabbed Jarrod Washburn and Rob Quinlan and all three helped the Angels win the 2002 title.

Let's take a look at the news and notes from the league today:

• Some notes about the Trevor Hoffman situation.
• The Red Sox are rumored to have inquired about Derek Lowe.
• The Yankees have signed Damaso Marte to a three year contract for $12M with a $4M club option for 2012 with a $250K buyout.
• Jerry Hairston Jr. and David Weathers are expected to test the free agent market.
• Nationals general manager Jim Bowden has expressed today that they will not be involved in the Manny Ramirez bidding.
• Carl Pavano and the Marlins are interested in exploring a contract.
• Ken Davidoff evaluates the Yankees seemingly ever-changing organizational philosophy.
• Doug Brocail has received an offer from the Astros and his agent claims six teams, including the Red Sox, have asked about his services.
• The Astros have also made an offer to Randy Wolf.
• The Phillies are focused on resigning Jaime Moyer.
• Dan O'Dowd suggested that the Rockies are not necessarily looking to trade recently acquired Huston Street.

There have been plenty of discussions between the Rockies and the Reds today about a potential trade, so let's take a look:

• Ken Rosenthal is reporting that the Reds are interested in Willy Taveras, Yorvit Torrealba (not sure why) and Garrett Atkins and the Indians are interested in the recently traded Huston Street.  The Nationals are also reported to be interested in Carlos Gonzalez who was also acquired in the Matt Holliday deal.
• Troy E. Renek confirms much of what Rosenthal is reporting and also adds that the Red Sox are rumored to be interested in Chris Iannetta. 
• Renek also notes that Manny Corpas has been told he's still the closer, meaning that Street is likely to be moved.
• Finally, Renek adds that the Rockies are interested in Carl Pavano.
• Tracy Ringolsby denies Rosenthal and Renek's reports and notes that the Reds are only interested in Atkins, not Tavarez or Torrealba.  She also notes that the Phillies, Angels and Twins are also interested in Atkins.

The New York Yankees have declined their 2009 options on Jason Giambi and Carl Pavano.  Giambi will receive a $5M buyout from the Yankees while Pavano will get $1.95M. 

Let's look at some squaking from around the internet:

• Dave O'Brien wonders if the Braves may be able to do the unthinkable: trade Mike Hampton. That seems about as likely as the Yankees trading Carl Pavano. Why would either of these teams get picky if some team was willing to take on any part of their remaining contract. Dave O'Brien also notes that reliever Will Ohman was placed on waivers and pulled back.
• There is an assertion here that the Rays are not solely the product of their string of poor finishes and high draft picks. 
  
• The Indians have a glut of catching that they may be able to trade in the off season.  Might the Red Sox be a trade partner?  They've certainly consumated many deals in the past.