Buster Posey
Rumors

Keith Law of espn.com recently provided some rumors regarding Monday's amateur draft. 

• Law confirms Churchill's earlier assertion that the Mets are interested in UNC pitcher Matt Harvey with the #7 pick.  This assumes someone like Manny Machado or Jameson Taillon does not fall to them.
• Dylan Covey had a few tough outings to end his season and his draft stock has suffered because of it.  If the As (10) and Blue Jays (11) do not take him, he could slide all the way to the Angles at 18 or Astros at 19. 
• The Blue Jays pick at 11 and are interested in high school catcher Justin O'Connor.

• The As at 12 also like O'Connor, but Law feels they'd take Cal State Fullerton SS Christian Colon before O'Connor.
• Colon could also make sense for the Royals at #4 because he's a low risk player with a high probability of making it to the majors, even if he has a relatively lower professional ceiling.  Polished would be the word to describe Colon.

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The 2005 draft had Justin Upton, Alex Gordon, Ryan Zimmerman, Ryan Braun and Troy Tulowitzki among others.

The 2008 draft had Pedro Alvarez, Brian Matusz, Buster Posey, Gordon Beckham and Justin Smoak among others.

The 2010 draft has, well, Bryce Harper.

That's not to say there are not other worthwhile players available to draft and draft high, but the 2010 class simply doesn't have the star power at the top or the depth at the back of the class the way previous classes have. 

Does this year's draft class lack of depth impact the way teams approach the draft?  Perhaps take players much higher than they should go in order to save money, a la the Pirates and Tony Sanchez in last year's draft? 

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The 2008 and 2009 drafts were unusually stocked in terms of the quality and quantity of available college bats.  Draft picks from the past two classes including Buster Posey,  Justin Smoak, Pedro Alvarez from 2008 and Dustin Ackley from 2009 all ranked in the Top 20 Aggregate professional prospect rankings.  Gordon Beckham, from 2008, doesn't even qualify as a prospect anymore as he figures to get significant playing time at the major league level for the White Sox this year. 

The 2010 class does not project as well, but Zack Cox and Bryce Brentz remain two bats that are safe picks in the first round.  The issue is the rest of the class.  While Cox and Brentz seem likely to go in the first round, where is the rest of the safe, college bat draft picks that teams who are unsure of high school pitching can rely on? 

"It gives teams more option, more safe options," an NL special assistant said. "We all know how risky it is historically to deal with high school pitching and that college hitters are the best bet. It makes it a tough decision when there aren't enough legit (college hitters) to consider."

Zack Cox figures to be one of a handful of college bats taken early this draft

Both Cox and Brentz figure to be Top 10 draft picks, but still some questions remain about their professional future.  For one, Cox is a draft eligible sophomore, which means he has the ability to return to college for his junior year if he does not like the offer he is getting from whatever team drafts him. 

As for Brentz, he hit 465/535/930 with 28 home runs and 19 doubles in 2009.  One special assistant of a team picking in the Top 10 said "we've already had conversations about this kid and our scouts love him. We're a little afraid he won't be available when we pick. That should tell you something."

Recently, a number of respected baseball media outlets have released their respective lists of the top number of prospects heading into the 2010 season.  These lists include Keith Law of espn.com's Top 100, Jonathan Mayo's collection of top prospects starting with Scouting the Sally's Top 30, Oriolesprospects.com Top 20, Propects Paradise's Top 30, Camden Crazies Top 25, Dave Barr's Hot Corner Top 20, Prospect Junkie's Top 20, The Cardinal Nation's Top 40, Seth Stohs from sethspeaks.net's Top 20, and Mayo's Top 50.

Obviously this all represents opinion, but to get a better idea of the overall feel of the group Baseball Rumor Mill averaged the Top 20 rankings from all of the lists to come up with an aggregate ranking of the Top 20 prospects heading into 2010. 

The rankings were tabulated only evaluating the Top 20 of each list and a point value was assigned to each rank.  #1 = 20 points, #2 = 19 points, so on down to #20 = 1 point.  If a player was not listed in the Top 20 a NR indication was given and no points were awarded.  The rankings are based on aggregate point totals, though we also did an evaluation of point totals after dropping the highest ranking and lowest ranking.  For instance, Desmond Jennings finished fifth overall in aggregate, but would be tied for 3rd with Buster Posey after dropping each player's highest and lowest ranking.

To view the raw data, click here.

Not surprisingly, Jason Heyward and Stephen Strasburg were significantly ahead of the field at the #1 and #2 spot, respectively.  There seems to be a considerable drop in consensus after either Dustin Ackley at #12 or Madison Bumgarner at #13.  Only ten players received Top 20 votes in all ten rankings.

Without further ado, the aggregate rankings

1. Jason Heyward, OF Atlanta
2. Stephen Strasburg, P Washington
3. Buster Posey, C San Francisco
4. Brian Matsuz, P Baltimore
5. Desmond Jennings, OF Tampa Bay
6. Carlos Santana, C Cleveland
7. Jesus Montero, C New York Yankees
8. Neftali Feliz, P Texas
9. Mike Stanton, OF Florida
10. Pedro Alvarez, 3B Pittsburgh
11. Justin Smoak, 1B Texas
12. Dustin Ackley, OF Seattle
13. Madison Bumgarner, P San Francisco
14. Aroldis Chapman, P Cincinnati
15. Domonic Brown, OF Philadelphia
16. Jeremy Hellickson, P Tampa Bay
17. Martin Perez, P Texas
18. Alcides Escobar, SS Brewers
19. Wade Davis, P Tampa Bay
20. Chris Carter, 1B Oakland

Less than a year after being the #1 draft pick, Strasburg rates as the #2 prospect in baseball

The deadline for teams to offer arbitration to free agents was this past Tuesday and Keith Law of espn.com gives us his analysis of teams varying decisions to either offer or decline arbitration with their free agents.

• Billy Wagner was offered arbitration by the Red Sox and then signed with the Braves, giving the Red Sox the 20th overall pick in the 2010 draft along with a compensation pick.  Law loves that decision, but questions the Braves move, wondering how much value they'll get out of Wagner at the expense of the draft picks.  However, it seems likely that the Braves are anticipating losing Rafael Soriano or Mike Gonzalez making the draft picks a wash.  
• The Dodgers did not offer arbitration to Randy Wolf or Orlando Hudson, a clear indication that the team is in desperate financial difficulty and are afraid of the players actually accepting arbitration.  Both are Type A free agents meaning the Dodgers essentially gave up four draft picks if neither signed with LA. 
• Law agreed with the Giants decision not to offer Bengie Molina arbitration and hopes this means that the Buster Posey era - 5th overall pick of the 2008 draft - will start soon.

Is the Buster Posey era beginning in SF?

• Milwaukee did not offer Felipe Lopez arbitration, a curious decision.  Lopez only made $3.5M in 2009, did not have impressive HR, RBI or run totals and is represented by Scott Boras, so it seems unlikely that Lopez would have agreed to arbitration anyway.  Lopez is a Type B free agent and would have netted the Brewers two draft picks. 
• Similarly, the Angels raised some eyebrows by not offering Darren Oliver arbitration.  Oliver had a good year last year, likely would not cost much and as a Type A, if he left, would have netted the Angels two draft picks.  It's good news for Oliver, however, who might have had trouble finding suitors willing to give up a draft pick for him.
• Gregg Zaun and Brian Shouse were both offered arbitration by the Rays who would be ok whether the players accepted or rejected the offer.  Neither would have an unreasonable salary in 2010, but both are Type B free agents and would give the Rays a supplemental draft pick if they left. 
• The Twins have turned a "fringe prospect" into either 1.5 years of Carl Pavano or a half season of Pavano and a sandwich pick in the 2010 draft. 

Jason Churchill of espn.com evaluates the defining characteristics of the 2009 MLB Draft in his latest posting.

1. Stephen Strasburg is arguably the easiest #1 draft pick in the draft's history.  In 2008 the Rays debated between Buster Posey and Tim Beckham before settling on Beckham.  The Royals took Luke Hochevar over Andrew Miller and Tim Lincecum, all of which were options.  Arizona liked Alex Gordon, but went with Justin Upton instead.  The only question about Strasburg is how much to pay him.
2. Unlike in 2008 when the draft was dominated by bats, the 2009 draft, at least the first round, will be dominated by pitching.  From the college ranks, Kyle Gibson, James Paxton, Alex White and Mike Leake join Tanner Scheppers and Aaron Crow as Top 20 talent.  Shelby Miller, Jacob Turner, Zach Wheeler, Matt Purke and Tyler Matzek are all high school pitchers who are not expected to get out of the Top 15.  Even after the first round Rex Brothers, Kyle Heckathorn, Mike Minor and Eric Arnett provide value while Matt Hobgood, Chad James and Tyler Skaggs are all in first round discussions.
3. Parity through the first three rounds: "There's not much difference between the 25th pick and the 75th pick," said one National League club's scouting coordinator. 

All week we have been tracking the bizarre developments in the grievence filed by the Players Assocaition claiming that some contracts completed by 1st round draft picks, such as Pedro Alvarez, were completed after the Aug 15th deadline. The Kansas City Royals have been concerned that their signed pick, Eric Hosmer, will be dragged into this mess. However, Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports today that it doesn't seem as if Hosmer will be involved.

Jonathan Mayo of mlb.com, however, believes that the focus of the grievance will not be Alvarez alone based on the use of plurals in the grievence ("clubs" "agreements"). Whether this means Hosmer and/or players such as Buster Posey is hard to determine.

11:10 PM: Rob Neyer of espn.com dives into the Pedro Alvarez situation.  Neyer points out that back in 1996, Boras fould a loop-hole in the amateur signing system that resulted in four of his clients becoming free agents and making more money than they would have if they stayed with their drafted club, so this may not be as obvious as it seems.  Neyer confirms that the final contract allegedly reached between Alvarez and the Pirates was done so without Boras and this fact could possibly hurt Boras's credibility with future amateurs if his presence as an advisor doesn't really garner a larger signing bonus.

7:49 PM: Jonthan Mayo of mlb.com did some digging today to try and get some more answeres on the Pedro Alvarez situation. Mayo reports that the deal was finalized by Pirates with Alvarez, directly, without Boras's involvement. Allegedly Eric Hosmer agreed to his deal after the deadline, but Mayo tells us that Hosmer has signed his contract already and is playing.

3:40 PM: Jennifer Langosch reports that Scott Boras is asking for an additional $200K to Pedro Alvarez's signing bonus so that it matches Buster Posey's. Boras is also claiming that the contract was agreed upon after the August 15th, 11:59pm deadline making it void.

2:07 PM: Yesterday, word from the Pirates was that #2 overall pick Pedro Alvarez had not yet arrived in Pittsburgh for an introductory press conference and/or physical. Dejan Kovacevic reports today that Alvarez's advisory, Scott Boras, is now saying that Alvarez will no longer agree to the deal they signed on August 15th.

With the deadline to sign 2008 draftees Friday at 12:00pm, a number of players still remain unsigned:

• #2 Overall pick Pedro Alvarez, Pittsburgh: Pirates general manager Neal Huntington said he felt he'd be up late the next few days trying to finalize contracts with their unsigned picks.
• #3 Overall pick Eric Hosmer, Kansas City: Bob Dutton felt that things were still iffy between Hosmer and the Royals, but mlb.com's Jonathan Mayo reports that a deal will get done...eventually.
• #4 Overall pick Brian Matsuz, Baltimore: Matsuz is expected in Baltimore today to take a physical. This is a good indication a deal will get done. Roch Kubatko confirmed the physical. The deal is allegedly worth $3.1M.
• #5 Overall pick Buster Posey, San Francisco: Andrew Baggarly says that Posey is a done deal with the Giants. Jonathan Mayo isn't so sure.
  
• #7 Overall pick Yonder Alonso, Cincinnati: Alonso is asking for a major league deal from the Reds and this is causing problems. Apparently Alonso is taking a page out of the Scott Boras playbook and threatening to play in the Independent League if he doesn't sign.
• #11 Overall pick Justin Smoak, Texas: Talks are mum between Smoak and the Ranger per the agreement of each side.\
• #23 Overall pick Allan Dykstra, San Diego: The Padres are surprised that Dykstra's contract has taken so long to sign, but now know it'll go down to the wire.

Jonathan Mayo of mlb.com dishes out the latest rumors and news on the unsigned 2008 1st round draft picks.

Pirates (Pedro Alvarez): Nothing new from what was reported earlier in the week.

Roylas (Eric Hosmer): No new progress

Orioles (Brian Matsuz): Not close, but not far.

San Francisco (Buster Posey): Posey is looking for $$$$ making it unlikely the deal gets done soon.