Bryce Harper
Rumors

Plenty of baseball action this past Saturday, Mar 6.  Let's take a look at the highlights from the draft prospects:

• Jedd Gyorko continues to hit.  His numbers are up to 361/452/639 with six walks vs. four strikeouts in his first nine games.
• Houston's Michael Goodnight out dueled Texas's Brandon Workman in a 1-0 win for the Cougars.  Despite walking four hitters, Goodnight struck out nine over 7IP and allowed just two hits.  Workman was equally as impressive, yielding just a walk, four hits and one earned run over 8IP with seven strikeouts.
• Cal State Fullerton's Christian Colon continues to struggle going 0-for-5 against Arizona.  The shortstop is hitting 194/310/306 through the first nine games of the season.  After having a 971 OPS last year, no one expects his struggles to continue long, but the lapse allows other shortstops like Josh Rutledge to close the gap on draft boards.

Christian Colon needs to snap out of his funk soon

• Alabama's Jimmy Nelson fanned eleven batters over six innings without giving up a walk.  Though considered a second-day pick heading into the season, he has a 19-1 K/BB ratio over the first 16 innings of his season and is moving up draft boards.

Continue Reading...

Jason Churchill of espn.com recently polled a number of talent evaluators to "rank the areas of depth in this year's class, weighing the impact talents within four categories: college bats, college pitching, high school pitching, high school bats."  Here's what Churchill found out:

• From one responder: "It's kind of even, including at the very top of the draft, but the first day may be filled with these high school arms, but I'm not sure a lot of them go early."
• Another criticized the available hitters "it seems all of these guys have pretty major questions, aside from [Bryce] Harper, who is basically a high school kid for us. [Arkansas' Zack] Cox may or may not play third, he strikes out, and [Virginia Tech's Austin] Wates ... I'd like to get the chance to see if he can play center, he's played everywhere but there so we haven't got the look we want yet. There's no safe bet this year [in terms of college hitters]."

Can Zack Cox improve his draft stock by proving he can play third base professionally?

• College hitters could be the weakest portion of the draft, especially if Harper is not included because he's basically a high school player at 17 years old anyway.  

Continue Reading...

Often considered the unanimous #1 pick in the 2010 draft, some scouts still express concerns about Bryce Harper's professional future.  Buster Olney of ESPN.com recently made the decision to draft Harper with the first overall pick (or even a high draft pick) to the debate many NFL scouting directors are having trying to evaluate Tim Tebow's professional prospects. 

Unlike with Stephen Strasburg last year who was the best pitching prospect, well, ever, Harper (and Tebow) present a more difficult challenge.  How do you rectify someone who has such incredible physical ability with possible major mechanical flaws?  Sure, these flaws have not manifested themselves yet in their respective competition level, but will they be able to "get away with it" at the professional level?  Right now many are saying that Harper, because of his young age, will either be able to mature out of his flaws or correct them.  Tebow is a more difficult project.

Bryce Harper hits tape measure home runs right now, but will he as a pro?

No one questions Harper's bat speed, but already the whispers are growing that he strikes out far more often than someone of his ability should at the junior college level.  Despite hitting a respectable .408 early in the season for the College of Southern Nevada, he has 17 strike outs in 71 at-bats.  Scouts are concerned with Harper's lower body when he swings and some have noted that it is a violent swing - different from Joe Mauer when he was the #1 pick back in 2001.

Continue Reading...

Keith Law from espn.com believes that the 2011 draft is loaded with talent - similar to 2008 and 2009 - something that 2010 will lack, despite its top heavy nature with Bryce Harper.  Even with a number of quality players who could compete to be the top pick, Law believes that Rice third baseman Anthony Rendon is already separating himself from the pack as the best player in the 2011 draft class.

With respect to his ability to hit, Law had the following observations: "[Rendon] has one of the best swings I've seen on a college hitter, with excellent hip rotation and strong, quick hands. He pairs it with good pitch recognition and a patience that's born both of a good eye and the fact that opposing pitchers don't want to pitch to him right now. He taps his front foot twice and gets it down a little late, but everything about his transfer and swing is quick and forceful enough that it doesn't seem to affect him against college pitching. His plate coverage is good, and he can shorten his swing to square up a ball up in the zone."

Anthony Rendon is the early favorite for "one-one" status in 2011

Currently, Rendon is a third baseman with an above-average arm and "good reads."  There's speculation that Rendon might physically develop too much to play third base professionally and would have to move to first base, but Law isn't worried about that right now.

Since 1985, only Joe Mauer has been selected #1 overall as a catcher and only five times prior to that was a catcher taken with the first pick.  Mauer is clearly the class of that group of first overall picks, the others did not have noteworthy careers.  Catchers have also been selected four times with the #2 pick and five times with the #3 pick.  The most notable success story of that group is BJ Surhoff, who spent the bulk of his career not as a catcher, but at other positions. 

The question then becomes, will Bryce Harper, who's largely expected to be the first overall pick by the Nationals, work out as a player, more or less a catcher?

"I don't think you can compare today's player to those from so long ago," said a current catching coordinator. "When I'm asked to come take a look at a kid our club is considering taking in the draft, it's a fresh start. With a catcher, I'm just looking to see if he has the hands and feet, and of course the arm strength, to develop into a major league catcher."

Will Bryce Harper be able to cut it as a professional catcher?

So far, Harper has fit into the catching coordinator's mold.  He's a very good athlete with a strong arm and plenty of coordination with his feet. 

Continue Reading...

Jameson Taillon, a 6'6" RHP from The Woodlands High School in Texas, figures to be a high pick in June's draft.  Most early rankings of amateur players have him either #2 behind CSN's Bryce Harper or #3 behind Harper and LSUs Anthony Ranaudo.

Historically, espn.com's Jason Churchill points out, drafting a high school pitcher with the #1 or #2 pick is rare and often does not work out.  The only high school pitchers to be selected first overall were David Clyde by the Texas Rangers in 1973 and Brien Taylor by the New York Yankees in 1991.  Clyde did make his way to the major league club, but never amounted to much while Taylor's career never made it to the big leagues because of injuries. 

Of the seven high school pitchers taken with the #2 overall pick, only two, JR Richard and Josh Beckett, have ever made an All-Star team.

Could Jameson Taillon overtake Bryce Harper as the #1 pick?

On a more practical level, espn.com's Keith Law notes that due to drafting styles, it's unlikely that Taillon will be a Top 2 pick.  The Nationals, owner of the #1 overall pick, are headed by general manager Mike Rizzo, who typically favored college players when he was in charge of the Arizona Diamondbacks' drafts.  The Pirates have the second pick and last year passed on the top high school pitcher, Tyler Matzek, when he was available to them with the #4 pick. 

Continue Reading...

USA Baseball released its 50-player watch list for the 2010 Golden Spikes Award given to the top amateur baseball player in the United States.  On June 1st, 2010, the watch list will be reduced to the 30 official nominations for additional consideration.  Voters will be asked to nominate five players from the list and the five finalists for the award will be announced on June 8th, 2010.  Additional voting will take place on the 8th and a winner will be announced.  Interestingly, June 8th, 2010 is also the first day of Major League Baseball's amateur draft.  The winner will not be announced until July 13th, 2010.

Six players on the 2010 watch list were semi-finalists in 2009: Bryce Brentz, Alex Wimmers, Deck McGuire, Anthony Rendon, Addison Reed and Daniel Bibona.

A semi-finalist in 2009, Alex Wimmers has made the 2010 Golden Spikes Award Watch List

Bryce Harper from the College of Southern Nevada is the only junior college player to make list.  A junior college player has won the award just once, Alex Fernandez in 1990.

LSU leads all colleges with four players nominated (Blake Dean, Micah Gibbs, Leon Landry and Anthony Ranaudo) while Texas has three (Chad Bettis, Taylor Jungmann and Brandon Workman), and Alabama, Arkansas, Cal State Fullerton, Coastal Carolina, Florida State, Georgia Tech, University of Miami, Rice and Virginia have two apiece.

Division 1 NCAA baseball got underway this past weekend with a number of top prospects getting their seasons started.  Here's a quick look at some of the highlights. 

Pitchers

• Anthony Ranaudo from LSU had a strong outing going 5IP, 6K, 0ER along with just three baserunners.  His fastball was clocked at 93-89mph.
• From Ohio State, Alex Wimmers, gave up just one hit and one walk over six innings and struck out nine in his debut.  According to Jason Churchill at espn.com, A former AL West scout now working for an agent said "he'd have to fall apart not be a first-round arm, but for me he could be anywhere from 10 to 30."
• Deck McGuire out performed both Ranaudo and Wimmers, with a 7IP, 5H, 0BB 0ER, 10K performance.  Though he gave up more baserunners than Ranaudo and Wimmers, the control he demonstrated with no walks was impressive.
• Ole Miss's Drew Pomeranz struggled a bit, yielding two earned runs on four hits and two walks in four innings pitched.  He did manage seven strikeouts.
• Chad Bettis from Texas Tech also had a nice line, going 7IP, 6H and induced 14 groundball outs.

Deck McGuire was very impressive in his 2010 debut

Hitters

• Austin Wates squared off against a possible high 2011 pick, Alex Meyer, and had a very nice 2-for-3 line with 2BB and a triple.  One large negative, however, was that Virginia Tech played Wates at first base rather than in the outfield.  Wates draft status depends upon his ability to be an outfielder, not a corner infielder.
• Though he's been crowned the top pick of the 2010 draft multiple times, scouts are still watching Bryce Harper closely to see how he handles improved competition.  Unlike Stephen Strasburg last year who had three years against the top competition in the country, Harper is largely untested.  He struggled against one hard throwing lefty, but had some better swings against other high velocity fastballs later in the weekend.
• LeVon Washington showed improvement at he plate, but struggled in centerfield.  If he can't play the outfield, his draft stock will suffer.
• Zack Cox, Bryce Brentz, Yasmani Grandal and Christian Colon all had solid performances in their debuts.

Austin Wates had a nice debut to start the season

Keith Law of espn.com released his preliminary list of the Top 50 draft prospects for MLB's 2010 amateur draft in June.  Law pointed out that the ranking is extremely preliminary with so many schools having not even started play yet, or only just begun.  A number of players on this list haven't even played a game yet. 

Of note is Law's assertion that the talent in 2010, even with Bryce Harper, is well below the 2009 and 2008 drafts which included stars like Stephen Strasburg and Pedro Alvarez. Specifically, college position players and high school shortstops and catchers seem to be particularly thin in 2010.

Perhaps most telling is that word is only Harper and Anthony Ranaudo will be able to command signing bonuses above their typical draft slot based on their ability.  It should make for an interesting draft in terms of the worst teams being able to draft the top talent as players hopefully do not slide because of salary demands.

The list was split evenly between pitchers and position players at 25 a piece.  Besides Harper and Ranaudo, Jameson Taillon (3) is the highest ranked pitcher while Austin Wilson (5) is the highest ranked position player at. 

Law has 27 high school players on the list vs. 23 collegiate players.  Taillon is the highest ranked high school pitcher followed by AJ Cole (6), while Wilson and then Josh Sale (9) are the highest ranked high school position players

AJ Cole found himself #6 in Keith Law's preliminary rankings

After Harper and Ranaudo, Deck McGuire (4) is the highest ranked college pitcher while outfielder Bryce Brentz comes in at #7

Other players of note include Alex Wimmers  (8), Brandon Workman (16), Jake Hernandez (26), Vincent Velasquez (31) and Jarrett Parker rounding out the top 50.

Jonathan Mayo mlb.com gives his Top 10 2010 MLB Draft prospects heading into the start of the baseball season.  Of most significant note is that Mayo does not have Bryce Harper as the #1 player available.

1. Anthony Ranaudo, LSU, RHP
2. Drew Pomeranz, Ole Miss, LHP
3. Jameson Taillon, The Woodlands High School, RHP
4. Bryce Harper, College of Southern Nevada, C
5. Dylan Covey, Marantha High School, RHP
6. Chris Sale, Florida Gulf Coast University, LHP
7. Jesse Hahn, Virginia Tech, RHP
8. Zack Cox, Arkansas, 3B
9. Manny Machado, Miami Brito High School, SS
10. Kaleb Cowart, Cook County High School, 3B

Anthony Ranaudo supplants Bryce Harper as the #1 available player according to Jonathan Mayo