Billy Wagner
Rumors

The deadline for teams to offer arbitration to free agents was this past Tuesday and Keith Law of espn.com gives us his analysis of teams varying decisions to either offer or decline arbitration with their free agents.

• Billy Wagner was offered arbitration by the Red Sox and then signed with the Braves, giving the Red Sox the 20th overall pick in the 2010 draft along with a compensation pick.  Law loves that decision, but questions the Braves move, wondering how much value they'll get out of Wagner at the expense of the draft picks.  However, it seems likely that the Braves are anticipating losing Rafael Soriano or Mike Gonzalez making the draft picks a wash.  
• The Dodgers did not offer arbitration to Randy Wolf or Orlando Hudson, a clear indication that the team is in desperate financial difficulty and are afraid of the players actually accepting arbitration.  Both are Type A free agents meaning the Dodgers essentially gave up four draft picks if neither signed with LA. 
• Law agreed with the Giants decision not to offer Bengie Molina arbitration and hopes this means that the Buster Posey era - 5th overall pick of the 2008 draft - will start soon.

Is the Buster Posey era beginning in SF?

• Milwaukee did not offer Felipe Lopez arbitration, a curious decision.  Lopez only made $3.5M in 2009, did not have impressive HR, RBI or run totals and is represented by Scott Boras, so it seems unlikely that Lopez would have agreed to arbitration anyway.  Lopez is a Type B free agent and would have netted the Brewers two draft picks. 
• Similarly, the Angels raised some eyebrows by not offering Darren Oliver arbitration.  Oliver had a good year last year, likely would not cost much and as a Type A, if he left, would have netted the Angels two draft picks.  It's good news for Oliver, however, who might have had trouble finding suitors willing to give up a draft pick for him.
• Gregg Zaun and Brian Shouse were both offered arbitration by the Rays who would be ok whether the players accepted or rejected the offer.  Neither would have an unreasonable salary in 2010, but both are Type B free agents and would give the Rays a supplemental draft pick if they left. 
• The Twins have turned a "fringe prospect" into either 1.5 years of Carl Pavano or a half season of Pavano and a sandwich pick in the 2010 draft. 

Despite being offered arbitration by the Red Sox and alleging retirement, Billy Wagner has agreed to a one-year contract with the Braves. The contract will pay Wagner $7M in 2010 and has a vesting $6.5M option for 2011.

The bullpen is going to be a priority for the Braves this off season because they are at risk of losing their top two relievers, Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez, to free agency. Wagner provides insurance for the Braves if one or both of them do not resign with the team.

For the Red Sox, Wagner's signing validates a calculated gamble on their part. It was widely considered that the Red Sox hoped Wagner would not accept arbitration after they offered it to him because they would prefer a compensation draft pick over having him return to the team for the approximately $8M a year he would receive in arbitration. The Red Sox will receive the 20th pick in the 2010 draft as compensation for losing Wagner along with a supplemental pick between the first and second rounds.

While the Braves lose a draft pick, it seems likely they'll get one back from losing either Soriano or Gonzalez. Wagner's signing is likely a sign that the team does not expect both pitchers to return to the team and each is a Type A free agent, as Wagner was.

Billy Wagner will take his services to Atlanta

Though John Lackey, Jason Bay and Matt Holliday will dominate the headlines and the dollars this off season, Buster Olney of espn.com breaks down the next tier of free agents who are sure to get plenty of calls when free agency begins on Friday.

Brandon Lyon: Though there are a lot of closers available via free agency, Lyon may be willing to take a set up role and is only a Type B free agent. The Phillies, Angles, Mets and Yankees are all likely to be interested

Mark DeRosa: As a player who can play multiple positions his flexibility is a good fit for the Phillies. His bat is a good fit for any team.

Jermaine Dye: His age, 35, precludes him from being able to command a long term deal, but an AL team might be able to snag a good DH for a short and small contract.

Miguel Tejada: Though he might not be able to play shortstop anymore and would require a move to third base, his 313/340/455 splits are still attractive. Philly and Oakland could be good fits.

Miguel Tejada hopes to get plenty of offers this off season

Nick Johnson: Defense and power are very suspect for Johnson, but his OBP (an absurd .477 in 35 games last year for the Marlins) is still attractive. Offense starved teams like Oakland or San Francisco could be interested.

Coco Crisp: He's unlikely to be an everyday outfield, but his defense and speed are still tremendous and he could be a good platoon outfielder.

JJ Putz: A big market team like the Red Sox (think Billy Wagner), Yankees or Angels might be willing to give Putz a one-year deal despite coming off of injury.

Placido Polanco: His 45 extra base hits along with solid defense at second base will certainly attract suitors.

Rafael Betancourt: If the Rockies offer him arbitration, he becomes a Type A free agent and interest will be minimal. If they don't, look out.

Olney notes at the end of his piece that the rational behind Betancourt also applies to relievers Wagner, Jose Valverde, Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano.

Below is a list of closers that are eligible for free agency for the 2010 season, their age, current team, current contract and whether the player falls into a Type A or Type B free agent compensation status.

Free agent catchers
Free agent first basemen
Free agent second basemen
Free agent third basemen
Free agent shortstops
Free agent left fielders
Free agent center fielders
Free agent right fielders
Free agent starting pitchers
Free agent middle relievers

Mike Gonzalez, 32, Braves - 09:$3.45M (Type A)
Kevin Gregg, 32, Cubs - 09:$4.2M (Type A)
Fernando Rodney, 33, Tigers - 09:$2.7M (Type B)
Rafael Soriano, 30, Braves - 08:$2.4M, 09:$6.1M (Type A)
Jose Valverde, 32, Astros - 09:$8M (Type A)
Billy Wagner, 38, Red Sox - 06:$10.5M, 07:$10.5M, 08:$10.5M, 09:$10.5M (Type A)

Astros Closer Jose Valverde

Joel Sherman of the New York Post is reporting that the Mets and Francisco Rodriguez agreed to a 3-year, $37M deal today.  The report indicates that K-Rod could be in New York on Wednesday to complete the deal with a physical.  K-Rod will replace injured closer Billy Wagner who will miss the 2009 season after getting injured in the middle of 2008. 

The $37M contract is far less than his rumored demands of 5-years and $75M at the beginning of free agency.  Since that time, the market has been flooded with closers available either by free agency (K-Rod, Brian Fuentes, Trevor Hoffman, etc.) or trade (JJ Putz, etc.).  Sherman speculates that the Mets could use the moeny saved to go after Derek Lowe, retain Oliver Perez or save even more money with Jon Garland. 

The Mets could get even more ambitious, attempt to move the $18M left on Luis Castillo's contract and go after free agent Orlando Hudson.

A bevy of Mets rumors today, even beyond the previously reported Javier Vazquez rumors.  Let's dive in.

• Omar Minaya will not rule out Francisco Rodriguez as a candidate to replace Billy Wagner, but Brian Fuentes seems like the more realistic option.  The Mets are also interested in discussing trade scenarios for Huston Street, but the Indians, Rockies and Brewers all seems like more realistic options. 
• Ken Davidoff proposes a scenario where the K-Rod market cools enough for the Mets to consider signing him at a "bargain" price while other teams overpay for Fuentes.
• The Mets will discuss having Pedro Martinez return, but it seems unlikely.
• Minaya doesn't feel like the offense is a problem for the Mets and predicts a rebound for Luis Castillo.  This could just be postulating to try and increase Castillo's trade value...somehow.

There have been plenty of rumors and speculation that the Mets will be looking at free agent closers Francisco Rodriguez or Brian Fuentes to replace the injured Billy Wagner in the 2009 off season.  Ken Davidoff of Newsday discussed the possible closer options the Mets could pursue via trade.  Possible targets for trade options include Kevin Gregg, George Sherrill, JJ Putz, Huston Street and Joakim Soria. 

There are also lesser known free agent options such as Jeremy Affeldt and Chad Cordero.  For a place like New York, however, I can't see their management settling for lower class relievers like Affeldt and Cordero.

Here's Jon Heyman's latest:

• The Mets seem likely to make a run at New York native, Manny Ramirez.
• If the Mets do not go after Francisco Rodriguez, they'll certainly need to make a run at Brian Fuentes.  Billy Wagner is likely done for 2009.
• Heyman confirms earlier reports that Brian Cashman will return to New York. 
• It's increasingly looking like the Phillies will promote Ruben Amaro Jr. to general manager for 2009.
• The Dodgers seem forced to bid on Manny Ramirez this offseason.
• Ryan Dempster is likely to stay in Chicago.
• Derek Lowe, however, is seemingly playing his last games as a Dodger.
• The Rockies are unlikely to be able to trade Todd Helton because of his back injury.  Helton has an astounding $52.3M remaining on his contrat from 2009-2011 including either a $23M option for 2012 (0% chance the Rockies pick that up) or a $4.6M buyout.  Wow.  No wonder the team is considering moving Matt Holliday. 

Let's get to today's opinions:

• Larry Borowski lobbies for the Cardinals to sign Todd Wellemeyer to an extension this off season.  Wellemeyer is in his final arbitration year and figured to make around $3M anyway.
• Within this article there is an analysis of why Bengie Molina is unhappy in San Francisco.
• Because the $10.5M Billy Wagner is scheduled to make in 2009 is uninsured, the Mets are unlikely to go after Francisco Rodriguez for 2009.

Jon Heyman of Sports Illustrated gives us his latest column:

• The Mets are more likely to be interested in Brian Fuentes than Francisco Rodriguez.  With K-Rod expected to look for $15M per season and the Mets already commited $13M to injured reliever Billy Wagner, $28M would be a lot to spend on one closer.  Some think the Mets will not go after K-Rod at all. 
• The Mets would prefer to save their money for starting pitching.  Ken Rosenthal echoed these sentiments here.
• A long shot for the closers role would be 2009 free agent Derek Lowe.  Lowe did close with the Boston Red Sox from 99-01.
• Heyman doesn't buy Smoltz's assertion that he could leave the Braves in 2009.