AJ Burnett
Rumors

Name: John Lackey
Age: 31
Position: RHP
Current Team: Los Angeles Angles
Current Contract: 06:$3.01M, 07:$5.5M, 08:$7M, 09:$9M

Performance: Undoubtedly, Lackey posted his best season in 2007 when he finished 3rd in the Cy Young voting and had his lone All-Star appearance.  Lackey posted a 3.01 ERA that season along with a 1.21 WHIP and 179?K in 224 IP.  Since then, Lackey's numbers haven't been quite as impressive (3.80 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 269K in 339 IP), but he's still been a very solid pitcher in the American League.

Outlook: Lackey is unquestionably the best pitcher available on the free agent market this off-season.  He is considered the cream of the free agent class along with Jason Bay and Matt Holliday.  His numbers are comparable to that of the Yankees AJ Burnett, who signed for five years and $82.5M last off season.  The Angels are certainly interested in keeping their ace right hander, but at $16.5M per season, they may not be able to when they may also need to pay the likes of Vladimir Guerrero, Bobby Abreu and Chone Figgins.

Suitors: Angels, Mets, Rangers, Braves, Phillies.

Prediction: The Mets need to make a splash after a frustrating season.

John Lackey of the Los Angeles Angels

Back in October, we posted the 2009 MLB Draft Order. Baseball America has since updated the draft order to include the free agent compensation changes.

1) Nationals (59-102)
2) Mariners (61-101)
3) Padres (63-99)
4) Pirates (67-95)
5) Orioles (68-93)
6) Giants (72-90)
7) Braves (72-90)
8) Reds (74-88)
9) Tigers (74-88)
10) Nationals (compensation for failure to sign 2008 first round selection, Aaron Crow)
11) Rockies (74-88)
12) Royals (75-87)
13) Athletics (75-86)
14) Rangers (79-83)
15) Indians (81-81)
16) Diamondbacks (82-80)
17) Diamondbacks (compensation from Dodgers for Orlando Hudson)
18) Marlins (84-77)
19) Cardinals (86-76)
20) Blue Jays (86-76)
21) Astros (86-75)
22) Twins (88-75)
23) White Sox (89-74)
24) Angels (compensation from Mets for Francisco Rodriguez)
25) Angels (compensation from Yankees for Mark Teixeira).
26) Brewers (90-72)
27) Mariners (compensation from Phillies for Raul Ibanez)
28) Red Sox (95-67)
29) Yankees (compensation for failure to sign 2008 first round selection, Gerrit Cole)
30) Rays (97-65)
31) Cubs (97-64)
32) Rockies (compensation from Angels for Brian Fuentes)

When teams finish with the same record, the tiebreaker (and higher pick) goes to the club with the worst record the previous year.

Supplemental First-Round Picks
33. Mariners (compensation for loss of Raul Ibanez)
34. Rockies (compensation for loss of Brian Fuentes)
35. Diamondbacks (compensation for loss of Orlando Hudson)
36. Dodgers (compensation for loss of Derek Lowe)
37. Blue Jays (compensation for loss of AJ Burnett)
38. White Sox (compensation for loss of Orlando Cabrera)
39. Brewers (compensation for loss of CC Sabathia)
40. Angels (compensation for loss of Mark Teixeira)
41. Diamondbacks (compensation for loss of Juan Cruz)
42. Angels (compensation for loss of Francisco Rodriguez)
43. Reds (compensation for loss of Jeremy Affeldt)
44. Rangers (compensation for loss of Milton Bradley)
45. Diamondbacks (compensation for loss of Brandon Lyon)
46. Twins (compensation for loss of Dennys Reyes)
47. Brewers (compensation for loss of Brian Shouse)
48. Angels (compensation for loss of Jon Garland)
49. Pirates (for failure to sign 2008 second-rounder Tanner Scheppers)

Second-Round Changes
56. Dodgers (compensation from Braves for Derek Lowe)
60. Diamondbacks (compensation from Royals for Juan Cruz)
61. White Sox (compensation from Athletics for Orlando Cabrera)
73. Brewers (compensation from Yankees for CC Sabathia)
76. Yankees (for failure to sign 2008 second-rounder Scott Bittle)

Third-Round Changes
104. Blue Jays (compensation from Yankees for AJ Burnett)

Supplemental Third-Round Picks
111. Astros (for failure to sign 2008 third-rounder Chase Davidson)

Ken Rosenthal has put together a huge column today. Let's take a look.

• Rosenthal predicts that John Lackey will be the biggest free agent pitcher for the 2010 class. Lackey's numbers are better than AJ Burnett who recently signed a five year $82.5M contract. The Angels do not seem likely to top that offer, however, and Rosenthal believes that Lackey could probably receive a very good offer on the open market.
• Scott Boras' ability to get a $60M, four year offer from the Braves for Derek Lowe when the only other known offer was for three years and $36M from the Mets can probably be attributed to the desperation the Braves faced after losing out on Burnett, John Smoltz and Jake Peavy.
• However Boras's approach does not appear to be working with Jason Varitek. According to Rosenthal, most executives view Boras and Varitek declining arbitration as foolish.
• The Dodgers are seemingly bidding against themselves for the services of Manny Ramirez, but there seems to be growing fear that if they do not include a third year, Ramirez would follow up on his threat to retire.
• There are rumors that the Red Sox have shown interest in free agent Adam Dunn, though it's hard to fit the pieces together to have the rumors make sense. Dunn would likely play first base for the Red Sox moving Kevin Youkilis to third and necessitating a trade of Mike Lowell. This made sense for a superior fielder like Mark Teixeira, but Dunn is average at best. One benefit to signing Dunn is that because the Diamondbacks did not offer him arbitration, the Sox would not lose any draft picks.
• Dunn and Bobby Abreu seem likely to get one year offers because of the thin 2010 free agent class. Matt Holliday will be available, but the talent pool after him is shallow. Teams who did not spend in 2009 (i.e., anyone not named the Yankees) are gearing up for a run at Holliday in 2010.
• Rosenthal believes that the Rangers are still highly unlikely to trade Michael Young. He is owed $59M over the next five years and $9.24M in deferred payments starting in 2016.
• The Yankees believe that Xavier Nady will be easily moved if necessary. Even if the team has to offer him arbitration for 2010, his current salary is only $3.35M, so the increase would not be too dramatic.
• Jason Isringhausen has four teams on the radar, one of which is the Tigers. The Cardinals are have said to not rule out bringing Isringhausen back.
• Randy Wolf turned down a three year $28.5M offer early in the off season from the Astros and seems unlikely to command that much anymore from limited suitors like the Dodgers.
• Despite a need for a bat, the Rangers are not going to trade for the White Sox Jermaine Dye or try budget free agents Frank Thomas or Nomar Garciaparra. They'd rather stick with Hank Blalock.
• The Red Sox and Diamondbacks are denying on being close with a deal that would send Miguel Montero to Boston.

In the on going chess match between the Red Sox and Yankees, this may not be the response the Red Sox had in mind to the Yankees signing CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett, but Boston added some depth to it's roster today with the signings of John Smoltz and Rocco Baldelli. Here's a run down of what we've seen so far today about the deals:

• Baldelli has signed a one year contract for $500K with a $1.75M roster bonus and up to $5.25M in performance bonuses.
• The Orioles, Phillies, Pirates, and Reds were also pursuing Baldelli.
• Smoltz has also will reportedly sign a one year contract, but for significantly more: $5M guaranteed with $5M in performance bonuses. Buster Olney of espn.com confirms the report.
• Espn.com's Rob Neyer feels like the signings represent a team flush with cash spending it on secondary players.
• Dave O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports the Braves offer at $3M. Gordon Edes of Yahoo! Sports reports that the offer was $3M guaranteed, $2M roster bonus, $5M in incentives.

The rumors of Mark Teixeira signing with the Yankees have been confirmed.  Now let's take a look at the various reports about how the deal went down:

• Bill Madden of the Los Angeles Times writes that Teixeira told him that he prefered New York over Boston and Los Angeles all along.  
• Gordon Edes of Yahoo! Sports gives a rundown of events that brought Teixeira to New York.
• Joel Sherman of the New York Post notes that the decision to sign Teixeira, along with their entire 2009 off season haul (CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett) was made with the poor 2010 free agent class in mind.  Sherman also points out that the team will now try to trade one of their outfielders: Nick Swisher, Johnny Damon, Xavier Nady or Hideki Matsui.
• Danny Knobler of CBS Sports reports that the contract does not include an opt-out clause as Sabathia's did.  He also notes that the Sox do not intend to go after Derek Lowe simply because they missed out on Teixeira.
• It appears as if the Red Sox final offer was eight year, $168M according to Joel Sherman.

cbssports.com's Danny Knobler is reporting today that the Braves are not interested in free agent pitcher Derek Lowe and remain quiet about any further negotiations with the Padres to acquire Jake Peavy.  Knobler notes that Lowe's agent, Scott Boras, continues to demand close to the $16.5M per year that AJ Burnett received from the Yankees and that is perhaps why the Braves and many teams are staying away.  While the Braves were close to a deal for Peavy close to a month ago, attempts at last minute changes by the Padres broke down negotiations and they remain closed. 

Jayson Stark of espn.com took a look at the players who did not sign during this week's winter meetings and what the rest of the off season has in store for them:

• Mark Teixeira: The rumored offers are plentiful: eight years, $160M from the Nationals; seven years, $140M from the Orioles; seven years, $160M from the Angels. Scott Boras clients always take the highest bid, but how will Tex be able to spin taking slightly more money from the lowly Nationals?
• Manny Ramirez: The prevailing wisdom is that Teixeira signs with Boston, a non-starter destination for Ramirez, and the Tex sweepstatkes losers bid on Ramirez. But the Angels haven't expressed interest, the Nationals don't need outfielders and Orioles owner Peter Angelos is unlikely to make a larger offer to Ramirez. What does it all mean? Wherever Ramirez plays, he won't have a home until at least February.
• Rafael Furcal: His agent alleges that the Royals, As, Blue Jays and Dodgers are all interested in Furcal and know that it will take anywhere from $27M to $40M to get a contract signed. However, most people think that the market and interest in Furcal is not quite the picture his agent is painting.
• AJ Burnett: The equation seems pretty simple: either take the money from the Yankees or decide to take a discount and play in Atlanta.
• Derek Lowe: Perhaps the market for Lowe is not as hot as once thought. It appears that neither the Phillies nor the Red Sox have made an offer yet. The Yankees could quickly drop out if Burnett and Andy Pettitte sign. The Mets may be interested, but only at a discount.
• Raul Ibanez: There appears to be serious interest from the Phillies, Angels and Mets.
• Milton Bradley: The Cubs and Rays are rumored to be the bidders for Bradley's bat.
• Adam Dunn: He's alleged to be the back up plan in Washington if Teixeira does not land in DC.
• Brian Fuentes: The market has significantly cooled with the Mets and Indians finding closers, but St. Louis still remains an option.
• Trevor Hoffman: There seems to be even less of a market for Hoffman who's receive nibbles, but nothing serious from the Dodgers, Tigers, Brewers and Rangers.

The Yankees are close to a deal that would send outfielder Mike Cameron to New York from the Brewers in exchange for Melky Cabrera and probably a pitcher yet to be determined according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Sherman notes that the Brewers are expected to pay a portion of the $10M Cameron is owed for 2009 and the more the Brewers offer to pay, the higher quality the unnamed pitcher would be.

There are also rumors that the Yankees are entertaining the idea of including Bill Hall in the deal. Hall is due to make $15.7M over the next two years and the Brewers would likely have to pay part of Hall's contract as well to unload the utility player.

Sherman also notes within the same article that the Yankees have upped their offer to free agent pitcher AJ Burnett to five years and $80M.

Earlier we gave you Yahoo! Sports Tim Brown's winter meetings preview of the NL teams.  Now, let's look at the AL teams:

• The Red Sox are quite involved in talks for big free agent names like Mark Teixeira, Derek Lowe and AJ Burnett but perhaps the most interesting question is how they handle Jason Varitek or his replacement.
• There seems to be a hierarchy of the Yankees off season moves: 1) sign CC Sabathia 2) sign Teixeira 3) sign Lowe or Burnett 4) sign Manny Ramirez as the worst case scenario.
• The Blue Jays are out of the running for Burnett, but could still consider Brad Penny, Paul Byrd, Randy Johnson, Oliver Perez, Pedro Martinez and Ben Sheets are all possibilities. 
• The off season priority list for the Indians reads as 1) closer 2) closer and 3) closer.  Possibilities include: Trevor Hoffman, Jason Isringhausen, Huston Street or JJ Putz.
• Trading for Gerald Laird filled the Tigers hole at catcher, but they're still interested in a closer and could be a dark horse for Rafael Furcal or trade for Jack Wilson.
• Teixeira will dictate the Angels off season.  If he signs with the Angels, that's likely it.  If not, they'll take Francisco Rodriguez back for the right price or look at Sabathia. 
• As Jayson Stark told us a few weeks ago, the Rangers off season priorities are pitching, pitching and more pitching.  They'll look at Penny, Randy and Freddy Garcia.

While the baseball winter meetings have already begun, Tim Brown of Yahoo! Sports put together a nice preview of what each team will look to do in Las Vegas this week.  Let's start with the NL:

• New Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro is involved in negotiations with Jaime Moyer and is also interested in Derek Lowe and AJ Burnett.
• The Nationals have been rumored to involved in the Mark Teixeira bidding, but Adam Dunn seems like a more realistic target.
• The Jake Peavy trade rumors have dominated the headlines for the Cubs, but the team could also look at signing Raul Ibanez or Rafael Furcal or even trading for Brian Roberts.
• The Astros are willing to consider trading Jose Valverde to improve their starting pitching.
• After trading for Khalil Greene, the Cardinals are still looking for starting pitching.  The Cardinals could also look to acquire Huston Street if they feel Chris Perez is not the answer as their closer.
• The Reds have been rumored to be interested in Jermaine Dye, but they may also be considering Willy Taveras from the Rockies.
• The Pirates are sellers at the winter meetings, looking to trade Jack Wilson, Adam LaRoche and Nate McLouth.
• Manny Ramirez and CC Sabathia remain on the back burner for the Dodgers and they try to resign Furcal at a bargain.
• The Rockies don't expect much interest in Garrett Atkins because the asking price is very high.