Adrian Gonzalez
Rumors

Buster Olney of espn.com has a few rumors and notes to pass along:

• Adrian Gonzalez has begun preliminary talks with the Padres about an extension, but Olney feels the liklihood of one being signed soon is slim.  Even if an agreement is reached, it is unlikely to be longer than through 2011.  Gonzalez is entering the last year of a four year $9.5M contract that will pay him $4.75M in 2010 and a $5.5M club option for 2011. 
• More likely, Olney feels, we'll see a bidding war for Gonzalez at next June's trade deadline.
• The Dodgers, Angels and Mets are the rumored suitors for Joel Pineiro.

Will Adrian Gonzalez be traded at July's trade deadline?

Plenty of rumors to pass along this morning from Nick Cafardo's article in The Boston Globe. 

• If the Red Sox are able to land John Lackey that could allow them the freedom to trade Clay Buchholz to San Diego for Adrian Gonzalez.
• Speaking of the Red Sox, here's an interesting quote from one AL general manager: "The Red Sox could be the major player this off season if certain things fall together for them.  They still have enough chips in their farm system to make something happen."  Perhaps referring to A-Gone or maybe Roy Halladay.
• The Yankees will be involved in trade discussions for Halladay and seem likely to part with Phil Hughes or Joba Chamberlain.  You have to wonder who the bigger prospect is right now.  Our money is that teams would rather have Hughers over Chamberlain.
• The Twins and Brewers are "very interested" in Carl Pavano.
• John Smoltz is also on Milwaukee's radar, but they'll have competition from the Cardinals, who'd like to see Smoltz return.
• Gary Sheffield would like to return in 2010 and is more flexible about accepting a DH role than in the past.  

John Lackey could be the first domino in a busy off season for the Red Sox

Peter Gammons and Gordon Edes of espn.com give plenty of speculation about how the Red Sox off season will play out.

• Jason Bay is likely to return to the Red Sox for many reasons, but most of all, it's unclear who else will compete with the Red Sox to sign him.  Gammons feels the contract will be in the four years, $64M deal.  Bay recently rejected a four year, $60M-ish deal.  
• Alex Gonzalez seems likely to return to the Red sox, even though they declined his 2010 option.  Marco Scutaro is another option.
• Unless Adrian Gonzalez or Felix Hernandez are available to the Red Sox, a blockbuster trade is unlikely.  Nevertheless, the Red Sox are sure to explore the option of acquiring Roy Halladay again.
• The Red Sox were interested in Cody Ross back in July and may continue to try to acquire the outfielder from the Marlins.  Manny Delcarmen was the rumored compensation for Cody back in July.
• Rich Harden and Ben Sheets are likely free agent targets for the Red Sox.
• While Boston may be a good fit for Aroldis Chapman, neither writer thinks that the Red Sox will make a serious push for him. 

Aroldis Chapman may work well in Boston, but are they interested?

Though the non-waiver trade deadline has passed, players can still be traded if they clear revocable waivers.  Simply put, if a team puts a player on waivers and no other team puts a claim in on that player, the team is then free to trade that player to another team.  If that player is claimed by another team, however, the first team can either pull that player off of waivers and they will not be able to trade the individual or allow the claiming team to keep the waived player and the claiming team assumes the entire contract responsibility. 

Jon Heyman of si.com broke down the list of players who will likely be put on waivers in to those who are "likely to clear", "could clear" and "unlikely to clear"

Likely To Clear

1. Bronson Arroyo - owed $17 over the remainder of 2009 and 2010
2. Adam Dunn - $12 is coming to him in 2010
3. Jose Guillen - $12 for 2010
4. Aaron Harang - over $25M in 2010 and 2011
5. Adrian Beltre - the remainder of his $12M in 2009
6. Aubrey Huff - the remainder of his $8M in 2009
7. Jason Giambi - the remainder of his $4M for 2009 and a $1.25M buyout for 2010 (or $6.5M contract)
8. Melvin Mora - the remainder of his $9M for 2009.  We already know he's not happy in Baltimore.
9. Juan Cruz - $2.25M in 09, $3.25M in 10, $4M option for 2011 or $500K buyout
10. Ty Wigginton - $2.5M in 09, $3.5M in 2010
11. Miguel Batista - $9M for 2009
12. Ron Mahay - $4M for 2009
13. Willie Bloomquist - $1.4M for 2009, $1.7M for 2010
14. Lyle Overbay - $7M in 2009, $7M in 2010
15. Willy Taveras - $2.25M in 2009, $4M in 2010

Could Clear

1. Jon Garland - remainder of $6.25M for 2009 plus a club buyout of $2.5M buyout for 2010 or a $10M contract
2. Doug Davis - $8.75M for 2009
3. Gil Meche - $22M for 2010 and 2011
4. Alex Rios - a staggering $63.2M from 2010-2014 AND a $1M buyout of a $13.5M club option in 2015.  Hard to imagine anyone taking on this contract or Toronto pulling him back.
5. Carl Pavano - $1.5M for 2009, but contract is LOADED with incentives.
6. Mark Hendrickson - $1.5M for 2009 with $500K in incentives
7. Jhonny Peralta - $3.4M for 2009, $4.6M for 2010, $250K buyout of $7M option for 2011
8. Jamey Carroll - $2.5M for 2009
9. Ron Villone - $600K

Unlikely To Clear

1. Roy Halladay - he wouldn't clear regardless of his contract, but he's owed $14.25M in 2009 and $15.75M for 2010
2. Felix Hernandez - the subject of a deadline blockbuster that never materialized, he's owed just the rest of his $3.8M in 2009, but is arbitration eligible.
3. Heath Bell - another arbitration eligible guy, he's only making $1.225M in 2009
4. Adrian Gonzalez - $3M for 2009 and $4.75M for 2010, he'd be arbitration eligible in 2011 if his team does not pick up his $5.5M option.
5. Marco Scutaro - just $1.1M for 2009, he's due a big raise in free agency for 2010 which is why the Jays would like to move him if possible.  Not likely.
6. Chad Qualls - arbitration guy making $2.5M for 2009
7. Michael Wuertz - only $1.1M, but arbitration eligible
8. Brian Bannister - $1.7M for 2009, but arbitration eligible
9. Josh Willingham - $2.95M for 2009 AND arbitration eligible
10. Gary Sheffield - a $14M salary that the Mets are only paying $400K of
11. David Eckstein - only $850K, but the Padres are trying to trim payroll
12. Jason Frasor - arbitration guy with $1.45M for 2009
13. Mark Teahen - $3.575M arbitration eligible

Apparently the Red Sox and Mariners discussed a monster deal that would have sent Felix Hernandez to Boston for five players from the following list:

1. Clay Buchholz
2. Daniel Bard
3. Justin Masterson
4. Nick Hagadone
5. Michael Bowden
6. Felix Doubront
7. Josh Reddick
8. Yamaico Navarro

When that deal didn't work out, the Padres got involved and the deal would have sent Hernandez to Boston, Adrian Gonzalez, Buchholz and a few other Red Sox prospects and the Padres would have received Brandon Morrow, Phillippe Aumont and Carlos Triunfel along with more Sox prospects.  Wow. 

Since the trade deadline, Bard has now become untouchable.  Sorta.

Jon Heyman of si.com has a new post up with tons to discuss:

• The Yankees have inquired with Seattle about Jarrod Washburn who is, at present, unavailable.  Unless there are some plans to keep Washburn, I don't see why Seattle wouldn't at least listen.
• Bronson Arroyo has been bandied about as another option for the Yankees, but he's owed the rest of his $9.5M for 2009, $11M for 2010 and a $2M buyout for 2011 (no one is going to bring Arroyo back for $11M in 2011, the other choice).  There was some steam for this rumor earlier today, but it has since been denied. 
• The Dodgers are considering Cleveland's Cliff Lee.  Lee is owed the remainder of his $5.75M for 2009 and an acquiring team would have a $9M club option for 2010 or a $1M buyout.  That's a heckuva lot cheaper than Halladay and he might be easier to resign to a long-term deal anyway.
• The Red Sox keep getting thrown in as players for Roy Halladay, Victor Martinez and Adrian Gonzalez.  All three are players who'd require a significant haul for their respective teams to move. 
• Despite receiving money from MLB to help make payments, the Rangers are not being restricted on adding payroll.  As such, they've been rumored to be interested in Halladay and Lee.  While the financial situation clouds everything, the Rangers are the team I think makes the most sense for Halladay to be moved to for the reasons I outlined when Halladay was initially known to be available.
• After last week's blockbuster trade for Matt Holliday, the Cardinals now have to work hard to extend the slugger.  Holliday's agent is Scott Boras, so that's a long shot.
• The Rockies are interested in finding a reliever.
• Nick Johnson and Josh Willingham were watched by the Giants this past weekend.  We got confirmation today that the Giants have a few bats on their wish list.

Jon Heyman of si.com has a new post up

• Heyman opines that the Padres could get more for Adrian Gonzalez right now than the Rangers did for Mark Teixeira did two years ago. That's quite a claim, but perhaps all in vain: Padres general manager Kevin Towers when asked about trading A-Gone, "Not at this point in time." The impetus for such a suggestion is to continue to rebuild a club that has already been decimated by ownerships mandate to lower payroll.
• Towers is, however, continuing to look for a home for Jake Peavy. However, Towers is still looking for a suitor. The Cubs do not seem very interested. The Dodgers would love him, but the Padres do not want to trade within the division. The Brewers might not have the young arms the Padres are looking for or the willingness to take on the $60M owed to Peavy.
• Apparently the Angels offer to CC Sabathia last winter was $141M which makes the Yankees $161M offer more reasonable.

Joel Sherman of the New York Post has a lot of information in his latest post.  Let's take a look:

• Kevin Towers does not believe it's possible he'd trade Adrian Gonzalez.  He's signed, inexpensive and very good.
• Sherman suggests that the Mets try to trade Luis Castillo and his horrendous contract to the Royals in return for Jose Guillen.  The Mets would likely have to take on some of Castillo's contract to get the deal done, despite Castillo being less expensive than Guillen. 
• The Mets have reportedly declined an offer of Eric Byrnes for Castillo.
• Pat Burrell is unlikely to return to the Phillies and they may look to replace him with an inexpensive player.  Moving Greg Dobbs to left field has been proposed.  Sherman also points out that the Phillies were interested in acquiring Manny Ramirez back in July.
• The Dodgers are rumored to be floating around Russell Martin as trade bait.  Martin is a young player and under team control for quite a while.