Cuban defector Aroldis Chapman has agreed to a five year contract with the Cincinnati Reds worth $30M acording to ESPN The Magazine's Jorge Arangure.  However, Chapman's representatives would not confirm the repots that Chapman has signed and merely listed the Reds as "possible".

While the Reds have presumably won the Chapman sweepstakes, earlier in the week the Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Angels, Toronto Blue Jays and Florida Marlins were all rumored to be bidding for the Cuban's services. 

Chapman is just 22 years old and comes armed with a fastball that exceeds 100 mph.  While control remains an issue for the left handed pitcher and most scouts acknowledge that Chapman is not ready to play in the major leagues his potentail remains off the charts.  One thing scouts really like his how smooth his delivery is something that is often a concern with a hard throwing pitcher.  Being able to repeat the same violent motion with minimal wear to the shoulder is always a point of emphasis and is something Chapman already displays.

Aroldis Chapman's July defection from Cuba lands him in Cincinnati

Matt Holliday is locked up for sevens years in a $120 million deal with the Cardinals, according to MLB.com. Now on to Albert Pujols.

The Red Sox officially introduced Adrian Beltre at a Fenway Park news conference Friday morning.  The free-agent third baseman Beltre is well known for his defense and replaces Mike Lowell in the corner.  Beltre's contract is for one-year, $9 million that includes a 2011 option for $5 million, the amount will double if Beltre has 640 plate appearances in 2010.  The option also includes a $1 million buyout.

Beltre, 30, is a .270 career hitter with 250 homers and 906 RBI.  2009 was an offensively slow year for Beltre due to left shoulder problems, however on June 30, 2009 he had bone spurs removed and is expected to rebound for 2010.

Beltre marks the fourth free-agent acquisition press conference for Boston this winter which includes, shortstop Marco Scutaro, right-hander John Lackey and outfielder Mike Cameron.

Adrian Beltre is heading to Boston

Buster Olney of espn.com has a few rumors and notes to pass along:

• Adrian Gonzalez has begun preliminary talks with the Padres about an extension, but Olney feels the liklihood of one being signed soon is slim.  Even if an agreement is reached, it is unlikely to be longer than through 2011.  Gonzalez is entering the last year of a four year $9.5M contract that will pay him $4.75M in 2010 and a $5.5M club option for 2011. 
• More likely, Olney feels, we'll see a bidding war for Gonzalez at next June's trade deadline.
• The Dodgers, Angels and Mets are the rumored suitors for Joel Pineiro.

Will Adrian Gonzalez be traded at July's trade deadline?

With Jason Bay off the market after being signed by the Mets, the last remaining big name free agent is Matt Holliday.  Let's take a look at the rumors surrounding where he's going to land.

• Buster Olney of espn.com tweets that the Cardinals latest offer to Holliday is over $100M guaranteed.  Remember, the Jason Bay contract was only $66M guaranteed, but with reasonable incentive clauses to get the deal to $80M.
• Tracy Ringolsby of Fox Sports writes that the Cardinals offer could be as high as eight years and $140M.  
• Ringolsby also writes that the Orioles made a eight-year, $130M offer, but Jeff Zrebic of the Baltimore Sun writes that Orioles president Andy MacPhail denied the report.
• Jon Heyman of Sports Illustrated write that Holliday reportedly turned down an offer from the Cardinals in excess of six-years and $100M as recently as the past few weeks.  As such, Holliday is rumored to still be talking with many teams.  

Where will the prize of the 2010 free agent class, Matt Holliday, land?

The New York Mets have reached a tentative agreement to sign former Red Sox outfielder Jason Bay to a four year contract, reports Jerry Crasnick of espn.com.  The initial terms of the deal are four years, $66M, but the deal also includes a vesting option for a fifth year that would increase the total $80M over five years. Completion of the deal will wait until Bay passes a physical, rumored for next week.

Speculation is that the fifth year option will vest based on typically achieveable plate appearance goals over the first four years of the contract.  Bay has played in an average of 154 games per season since 2005.

Bay was offered arbitration by the Red Sox back in November and as such will receive a supplementary first round pick and the Mets second round pick, seventh of the second round, as compensation in the upcoming 2010 draft. 

Jason Bay is heading to New York

With Bay's signing, the next chip to fall is the winter's most prized free agent, Matt Holliday.  As Keith Law of espn.com suggests, with Bay's fifth year option likely to vest, Holliday is unlikely to sign for less than five years, $80M.

The Boston Red Sox landed one of the top free agents of the 2010 off season by signing former Angels pitcher John Lackey to a five year, $85M deal, according to Jon Heyman of Sports Illustrated.  Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports had reported earlier in the day that Lackey was in Boston taking a physical.  Though numerous sources are reporting the deal as completed, Jerry Crasnick of espn.com believes that a formal agreement will not be reached until after today. 

Tim Brown from Yahoo Sports reports that the Angels still believe they are in the running for Lackey and that a deal has not been reached between Lackey and the Red Sox.

If the Red Sox do sign Lackey, the move affects the Blue Jays because both former Blue Jay Marco Scutaro and Lackey are Type A free agents.  Because Lackey is the higher ranking free agent, the Angels will receive the Red Sox first round pick, #29 overall, while the Blue Jays will be bumped to the Red Sox second round pick. 

John Lackey appears headed to Boston

Though the Curtis Granderson-to-New York trade has not been officially announced, a deal has been agreed upon to send Granderson to New York while Edwin Jackson heads to Arizona and the Tigers and Diamondbacks pick up prospects. 

The under reported aspect of this story so far is how the acquisition will affect Johnny Damon's future in New York.  Until now, Damon had been discussing about how he'd be willing to take a home town discount to stay in New York, but one has to wonder if the Yankees were not seeing that discount in negotiations and decided to go another direction.  Throughout his career, Damon has gone to where the most dollars and years were present.  In 2001, after being traded to Boston, Damon signed a lucrative deal with the Red Sox and then followed that contract up with an even higher paying deal with the Yankees. 

Damon is a 36 year old free agent and is looking for a multi-year deal.  Damon has even commented that he believes "there still is a window for him to come back."  With Nick Swisher under contract and Melky Cabrera and Brett Gardner on the roster, there might not be any room for Damon with Granderson on the roster. 

Assuming Damon does not return to New York, that likely reduces what he'll be able to get in free agency without competitive bidding from New York.  So where does that leave Damon's free agency?

Johnny Damon's days in New York appear over

The deadline for teams to offer arbitration to free agents was this past Tuesday and Keith Law of espn.com gives us his analysis of teams varying decisions to either offer or decline arbitration with their free agents.

• Billy Wagner was offered arbitration by the Red Sox and then signed with the Braves, giving the Red Sox the 20th overall pick in the 2010 draft along with a compensation pick.  Law loves that decision, but questions the Braves move, wondering how much value they'll get out of Wagner at the expense of the draft picks.  However, it seems likely that the Braves are anticipating losing Rafael Soriano or Mike Gonzalez making the draft picks a wash.  
• The Dodgers did not offer arbitration to Randy Wolf or Orlando Hudson, a clear indication that the team is in desperate financial difficulty and are afraid of the players actually accepting arbitration.  Both are Type A free agents meaning the Dodgers essentially gave up four draft picks if neither signed with LA. 
• Law agreed with the Giants decision not to offer Bengie Molina arbitration and hopes this means that the Buster Posey era - 5th overall pick of the 2008 draft - will start soon.

Is the Buster Posey era beginning in SF?

• Milwaukee did not offer Felipe Lopez arbitration, a curious decision.  Lopez only made $3.5M in 2009, did not have impressive HR, RBI or run totals and is represented by Scott Boras, so it seems unlikely that Lopez would have agreed to arbitration anyway.  Lopez is a Type B free agent and would have netted the Brewers two draft picks. 
• Similarly, the Angels raised some eyebrows by not offering Darren Oliver arbitration.  Oliver had a good year last year, likely would not cost much and as a Type A, if he left, would have netted the Angels two draft picks.  It's good news for Oliver, however, who might have had trouble finding suitors willing to give up a draft pick for him.
• Gregg Zaun and Brian Shouse were both offered arbitration by the Rays who would be ok whether the players accepted or rejected the offer.  Neither would have an unreasonable salary in 2010, but both are Type B free agents and would give the Rays a supplemental draft pick if they left. 
• The Twins have turned a "fringe prospect" into either 1.5 years of Carl Pavano or a half season of Pavano and a sandwich pick in the 2010 draft. 

Despite being offered arbitration by the Red Sox and alleging retirement, Billy Wagner has agreed to a one-year contract with the Braves. The contract will pay Wagner $7M in 2010 and has a vesting $6.5M option for 2011.

The bullpen is going to be a priority for the Braves this off season because they are at risk of losing their top two relievers, Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez, to free agency. Wagner provides insurance for the Braves if one or both of them do not resign with the team.

For the Red Sox, Wagner's signing validates a calculated gamble on their part. It was widely considered that the Red Sox hoped Wagner would not accept arbitration after they offered it to him because they would prefer a compensation draft pick over having him return to the team for the approximately $8M a year he would receive in arbitration. The Red Sox will receive the 20th pick in the 2010 draft as compensation for losing Wagner along with a supplemental pick between the first and second rounds.

While the Braves lose a draft pick, it seems likely they'll get one back from losing either Soriano or Gonzalez. Wagner's signing is likely a sign that the team does not expect both pitchers to return to the team and each is a Type A free agent, as Wagner was.

Billy Wagner will take his services to Atlanta