Keith Law Evaluates Arbitration Tenders, Impact On Draft Picks

Posted on December 2nd, 2009 10:24 PM by Knuckles

The deadline for teams to offer arbitration to free agents was this past Tuesday and Keith Law of espn.com gives us his analysis of teams varying decisions to either offer or decline arbitration with their free agents.

Billy Wagner was offered arbitration by the Red Sox and then signed with the Braves, giving the Red Sox the 20th overall pick in the 2010 draft along with a compensation pick. Law loves that decision, but questions the Braves move, wondering how much value they'll get out of Wagner at the expense of the draft picks. However, it seems likely that the Braves are anticipating losing Rafael Soriano or Mike Gonzalez making the draft picks a wash.
The Dodgers did not offer arbitration to Randy Wolf or Orlando Hudson, a clear indication that the team is in desperate financial difficulty and are afraid of the players actually accepting arbitration. Both are Type A free agents meaning the Dodgers essentially gave up four draft picks if neither signed with LA.
Law agreed with the Giants decision not to offer Bengie Molina arbitration and hopes this means that the Buster Posey era - 5th overall pick of the 2008 draft - will start soon.

Is the Buster Posey era beginning in SF?

Milwaukee did not offer Felipe Lopez arbitration, a curious decision. Lopez only made $3.5M in 2009, did not have impressive HR, RBI or run totals and is represented by Scott Boras, so it seems unlikely that Lopez would have agreed to arbitration anyway. Lopez is a Type B free agent and would have netted the Brewers two draft picks.
Similarly, the Angels raised some eyebrows by not offering Darren Oliver arbitration. Oliver had a good year last year, likely would not cost much and as a Type A, if he left, would have netted the Angels two draft picks. It's good news for Oliver, however, who might have had trouble finding suitors willing to give up a draft pick for him.
Gregg Zaun and Brian Shouse were both offered arbitration by the Rays who would be ok whether the players accepted or rejected the offer. Neither would have an unreasonable salary in 2010, but both are Type B free agents and would give the Rays a supplemental draft pick if they left.
The Twins have turned a "fringe prospect" into either 1.5 years of Carl Pavano or a half season of Pavano and a sandwich pick in the 2010 draft.