May 2009 Rumors Archive

The NCAA tournamet started on Friday and it gave us a chance to see a number of good match ups between 2009 MLB Draft prospects.  So far, the bats have gotten the best of the vaunted arms. 

Stephen Strasburg suffered his first loss of the season, though he didn't pitch too poorly (at least by normal standards).

Brooks Raley gave up five hits and three walks in two innings, yielding four runs, but just one earned.  

Brad Stillings of Kent State had a very poor outing, giving up twelve baserunners and nine earned runs in 2.1 innings pitched.  Jason Kipnis of Arizona State was on the other end of Stillings pitches and went 3 for 6 with a HR and two stolen bases.  Also of Arizona State, Carlos Ramirez had a double and two walks.  Kipnis could slip into the second round of the draft while Ramirez is expected to be a second day selection.

Georgia beat Ohio State 24-8 and Rich Poythress, expected to be a first round pick, had three home runs to improve his percentages to 381/471/766. 

Mike Minor from Vanderbilt had a very difficult start to his NCAA tournament, yielding a grand slam in the first inning, but settled down and gave up just six more hits in the next seven innings and had seven strikeouts.  Similarly, Eric Arnett had a tough start, giving up five runs, but only one earned run.  He only gave up five hits and struck out six, but did walk four.  Sam Dyson's outing mirrored Arnett's as he went seven innings giving up three runs on seven hits and four walks.  The performance likely did not vault him into the first round.

Arnett, Matt Hobgood, Mike Leake and Drew Storen appear to be moving up many draft boards.  While Storen is a closer, many teams are projecting him as a starter, which will likely increase his draft value.  Churchill feels that Storen will definitely go in the first 40 picks and could go as high as 20.  Jonathan Mayo had him going 20th to the Blue Jays in his most recent mock draft.

Jason Churchill of espn.com got a curious email from an NL club official regarding how they saw the first day of the draft going:

"there's [Stephen] Strasburg, then a group of about six or eight -- [Dustin] Ackley and seven arms -- and then it's a good, solid mix where clubs can almost draft for their organization's most glaring needs."

This is a tad confusing because it's fairly well known that drafting for need in the MLB Draft has typically not worked out.  The only time when drafting for need is acceptable is when it breaks a tie between two players that a club is considering drafting.  If a team is using need to move a player above one they rate higher, that's typically when disaster strikes.  The challenge for the 2009 draft will be trying to figure out if any team is drafting for need.  "After the top 10 picks this year, you can argue that any of the next 30 or 40 deserves to go No. 11," said one clubs scouting director.

More rumors

• Alex White from UNC will start Game 2 of the upcoming NCAA Tournament.  This could be a very important start for White if he wants to cement his Top 10 status.  San Diego remains a possibility for White with the 3rd pick, but the Mariners at #2 do not seem interested.  Similarly, White could slip past the Indians at #15 if he does not perform well.

Strasburg struggled (by his standards, 7IP, 2ER, 15K) in a 5-1 loss to Virginia in the opening round of the NCAA tournament.

Unlike the NFL draft, selecting players based on an organizational need has not been a sound strategy for the MLB Draft. Jason Churchill of espn.com notes that the Red Sox, Marlins, Giants, Rangers and Rays developed five of the elite farm systems in baseball by drafting talent and never for need. Similarly drafting a player because he'll sign for less typically does not work out well either.

In 2005, the Mariners had the #3 pick of the draft and selected catcher Jeff Clement over Troy Tulowitzki, Ryan Braun, Andrew McCutchen, Cameron Maybin, Ryan Zimmerman and Jay Bruce. The imeptus for their selection was that they needed a catcher and Clement was a left handed power hitter. Six months later, the draft pick was already wasted as the Mariners signed Kenji Johjima to a three-year contract and added three more years to that contract in 2008. Even if he had somewhere to play on the Mariners major league club, injuries have drastically stunted his progression. Surely the Mariners could use one of the aforementioned players that they passed up.

The Rangers have built arguably the best farm system in baseball by continually drafting the best player available. With the 12th pick in 2006, they selected Kasey Kiker despite having plenty of LHPs in their system already (it seems impossible to have TOO many LHPs). The trend continued in the 2007 and 2008 draft where they selected pitchers seven pitchers total in the first five rounds of each draft. Their first round selection in 2008 was first basemen Justin Smoak even though they already have Chris Davis, Max Ramirez, Hank Blalock and Jarrod Saltalamacchia available to play first base.

Keith Law of espn.com put together possible Top 10 draft board based on rumors he's heard in the last 24 hours along with other news and notes about the draft.

1. Nationals - Stephen Strasburg
2. Mariners - Tanner Scheppers
3. Padres - Dustin Ackley
4. Pirates - Tony Sanchez
5. Orioles - Aaron Crow
6. Giants - Tim Wheeler
7. Braves - Alex White
8. Reds - Tyler Matzek
9. Tigers - Jacob Turner
10. Nationals - Kyle Gibson

This example has the Mariners passing on Ackley, which seems unlikely, but it'd drastically change the draft.  Law has also heard that the Giants prefer a college position player to a high school pitcher.

More Rumors

• Scouts from the Yankees, Diamondbacks and Phillies were down in Texarkana to watch outfielder Slade Heathcott play.  The Diamondbacks first pick is #16 while the Yankees first pick at #29.  The Phillies do not have a pick until #75 and Heathcott is unlikely to last that long.
• Pittsburgh general manager Neal Huntington was in Boston recently to see Tony Sanchez play for Boston College.  They pick #4 and #49 and Sanchez is not going to make it to 49, so perhaps the Pirates are considering Tony with the fourth overall pick.  
• Deven Marrero and Stephen Baron had stellar workouts at the Florida High School All-Star event in Sebring, FL and have improved their draft stock.
• The Cardinals hope to get a college arm with their first pick at #19, but if not, they're considering Chad James.
• Another possibility for the Cardinals is Kyle Heckathorn who has also drawn interest from the Diamondbacks (picks 16 and 17), Blue Jays (#2) and Angels (#24 and #25).
• The Blue Jays also like Heckathorn's teammate, Chad Jenkins.

A number of links to pass along regarding specific teams

• The Pirates will not let Scott Boras's presence as a prospects advisor influence their decision to draft a player.  The Pirates have the #4 pick in the upcoming draft and are determined to sign their draftee in a far faster manner than they did with Pedro Alvarez last year, a Boras client.  Boras represents Stephen Strasburg, Dustin Ackley, Donovan Tate, Jacob Turner and Grant Green.  Strasburg and Ackley are unlikely to get to the Pirates and none of the mock drafts that we've seen so far have the Pirates reaching for Turner or Green.
• The Angels have five picks before the second round and are likely to take some chances with those picks.  The Angels first picks are picks #24 and #25 where Kieth Law of espn.com had them selecting Billy Bullock and Reymond Fuentes.  The Angels have been looking at Mike Trout (Law has him going to the White Sox at #23) as well as Everett Williams, Jiovanni Mier and Tyler Skaggs.  The Angels have a history of selecting high school players with high upside and with so many picks in the opening round, they're likely to do that again.
• The Padres pick third and have five players on their draft board: Strasburg, Ackley, Zach Wheeler, Aaron Crow and Mike Minor.  They're unlikely to get Strasburg or Ackley, so they'll likely have to settle for one of the aforementioned pitchers, something they're happy with.  
• Strasburg isn't talking about the draft, but focusing on the finish of his collegiate career.

As the 2009 baseball season starts to round into shape, we're beginning to figure out which teams will be looking to add players at the trade deadline and who will be looking to dump players.  While the AL West has been wide open, Larry LaRue of The News Tribune writes that the Mariners poor start likely means they'll be looking to unload some of their veteran players.

The obvious choices to be moved are Erik Bedard, Jarrod Washburn and Adrian Beltre.  As LaRue notes, all three of these players are in the final year of their contracts and none would resigned by the Mariners.  General manager Jack Zduriencik has already started the process of finding teams that would be realistic trading partners. 

Beyond the obvious names, the Mariners are in full rebuilding mode which means practically no one is safe.  Russell Branyon, Ryan Rowland-Smith, Jason Vargas and Franklin Gutierrez are also names that could be had for the right price.

Buster Olney of espn.com gave us updates today about the various pitchers that are available and the teams going after them in his latest post.

The most obvious player is the Phillies who were looking for pitching at the start of the month when Chan Ho Park and Jaime Moyer were not pitching well.  Now that Brett Myers needs hip surgery (is this anecdotal, or are we seeing more hip surgeries recently?  Chase Utley, Mike Lowell, A-Rod and now Myers...) the Phillies border on desperate. 

Pedro Martinez doesn't seem to make much sense for Citizens Bank Ballpark and he'd like tax an already overworked bullpen with five and six inning starts. Jake Peavy and Roy Oswalt are options, but both the Padres and Astros are expected to ask for significant compensation something the Phillies might not be able to afford.  Erik Bedard is another option, but the Mariners gave us so much (Adam Jones and Chris Tillman) they may try to ask for something similar in return which might not be worth it. 

That leaves the most logical option and the one that has been frequently mentioned already: Brad Penny of the Red Sox.  Boston is a good match for the Phillies because they're rumored to be interested in shortstop Jason Donald.  The Red Sox have been rumored to be interested in Jack Wilson as well becuase of the difficulty they've had at shortstop this year, but Donald may be more appealing.

Last week Jonathan Mayo of mlb.com post his Top 10 predictions. This week, Mayo updated his previous Top 10 and added 10 more picks giving us 20 predictions.

1. Stephen Strasburg, Nationals
2. Dustin Ackley, Mariners
3. Mike Minor, Padres
4. Aaron Crow, Pirates (last week: Alex White)
5. Zach Wheeler, Orioles (last week: Crow)
6. Tyler Matzek, Giants (last week: Mike Trout)
7. Shelby Miller, Braves (last week: Wheeler)
8. Tanner Scheppers, Reds (last week: Kyle Gibson)
9. Jacob Turner, Tigers (last week: Matzek)
10. Chad Jenkins, Nationals
11. Kyle Gibson, Rockies
12. Tony Sanchez, Royals
13. Alex White, As
14. Matthew Purke, Rangers
15. Rex Brothers, Indians
16. Mike Leake, Diamondbacks
17. Bobby Borchering, Diamondbacks
18. Eric Arnett, Marlins
19. Grant Green, Cardinals
20. Drew Storen, Blue Jays

Jayson Stark has a new column up on espn.com with a number of good rumors in it.

• The Padres are still interested in trading Jake Peavy despite their recent success. Clearly they don't believe they can sustain it. As far as Peavy is concerned the pecking order of teams he'd accept a trade to is: Dodgers, Cubs, Giants, Cardinals and Astros. Everyone is familiar with the Cubs attempts to get Peavy and word is that the Padres are reluctant to trade within their division, removing the Dodgers and giants. Peavy's friend, Roy Oswalt, has done his best to entice management to make a trade, but Peavy's hefty contract is keeping the Astros away.
• Speaking of Oswalt, a few scouts who Stark talked to said that he had "lost his edge" and could probably benefit from a change in scenery. Rumor has it that the Phillies have already inquired to Oswalt's availability.
• Philadelphia's interest/need for a pitcher is well known. Earlier in the week there were rumors that the Phillies were interested in Brad Penny of the Red Sox. Stark reports that they've also had some inquiry into the following guys: Oswalt, Peavy, Brandon Webb, Roy Halladay, Doug Davis, Erik Bedard, Cliff Lee, Aaron Harang, Penny, Chris Young and Jason Marquis.
• If and when the Phillies do acquire a pitcher, they'll likely have to give up one of the following prospects whom clubs are rumored to be interested: "Lou Marson, infielder Jason Donald and pitcher Carlos Carrasco -- plus catcher Travis D'Arnaud, shortstop Freddy Galvis, pitcher Kyle Drabek and outfielder Dominic Brown."
• The Braves want to take Mark DeRosa off the Indians hands, but seem unlikely to trade some of their young starting pitching to do so.
• Rumors about Jeff Francoeur's availability and who's interested in him are all over the map, but Stark reports that the Braves are "mostly listening" at this point.
• The Mets do not appear to interested in a quick trade to replace Carlos Delgado at first.
• Jonathan Sanchez is available from the Giants...for the right bat. They've already inquired, unsuccessfully, to obtain Dan Uggla, Jorge Cantu and Carlos Lee.

John Perotto (writes for Baseball America, MLB, Baseball Prospectus, etc) put up a post today evaluating the Pirates options with the 4th pick in the 2009 MLB Draft. Stephen Strasburg is the obvious #1 choice for the Nationals and Dustin Ackley is quickly becoming the consensus #2 choice for the Mariners. If, for some reason, Ackley didn't go to Seattle, surely the Padres would grab him with the third pick.

Almost regardless of who is selected besides Strasburg and Ackley, the Pirates have plenty of options. Perotto reports that "someone with direct knowledge of their thinking said earlier this week that their camp is divided between taking a college pitcher who could get to the major leagues quickly or going for a high school position player with high upside." The Pirates do not figure, however, to pay their draft pick over the suggested slot money, as they did with Pedro Alvarez last year.

The college player the Pirates figure to be most interested in is Kyle Gibson, but they are also serious about Aaron Crow as well (Crow is not technically a college pitcher as he plays professionally for the Fort Worth Cats, but he's not a high school pitcher and that's the point).

On the other end of the spectrum, high school positional players with high upside that the Pirates are considering are 3B Bobby Borchering from Bishop Verot HS, FL or Wil Myers a catcher from Wesleyan Christian HS, NC. Keith Law had the Pirates taking Borchering in his mock draft.