"I look at the bright side," Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo said Friday. "Tommy John surgery is a surgery that we've had great success at. The success rate for guys coming back from Tommy John and retaining their stuff is very good. We saw two examples of it on the mound yesterday at Nationals Park."

Empirically, Rizzo is correct about Stephen Strasburg's ability to recover from likely Tommy John surgery.  In fact, he may be right even statistically.  Look at this list of players in MLB who have had Tommy John surgery.  There are plenty of success stories in there.  Chris Carpenter.  Tim Hudson.  Shawn Marcum.  AJ Burnett.  Josh Johnson.  Joakim Soria.  Rafael Soriano.

The problem with Strasburg, however, is that the Nationals didn't draft and sign Tim Hudson.  Or Shawn Marcum.  Or a closer like Soria and Soriano. Rather, the Nationals used the #1 pick of the 2009 draft on what Strasburg's agent, Scott Boras, dubbed a "once in a generation pitcher."  Carpenter and Johnson are very good pitchers, but they're not the type of pitcher that comes around every fifty years. 

Reality is that Strasburg will return in 2012 and will likely be a very good pitcher.  More and more pitchers are recovering from Tommy John surgery with good success, returning with their stuff, as Rizzo said.  But, will Strasburg be able to throw 99-100mph in 2012?  Will his change up still be 90-91mph?  That type of ability seems unlikely to survive a major elbow surgery. 

Beyond the obvious impact Strasburg's physical ability, the impact to the Nationals bottom line will be crippling, even at the simple basic level of individual ticket sales.  Consider that the Nationals average ticket price is $35 and their average crowd for a Strasburg start is roughly (and conservatively) 10,000 fans larger than a typical home game.  At $350,000 a game times the approximately five home starts Strasburg would have left that is a $1.75M loss for the Nationals. 

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After the first round of the 2010 draft, there was speculation that the Los Angeles Dodgers selected two sport star Zach Lee without the intention of signing him.  Lee was considered a difficult sign because of his strong commitment to LSU to play football.  The thinking went that if Lee did not sign, the Dodgers would get around the 29th pick in the 2011 and Los Angeles is strapped for money amidst the ownership struggle.

However, the Dodgers surprised everyone by signing Lee to a $5.25M contract.  More importantly, perhaps it debunked the theory that the Dodgers were just throwing draft picks. 

Though the Dodgers and Lee were fortunate to get a deal done, three clubs in the first round were not.  As such, in 2011, they will receive the pick after what they had in 2010 as compensation for failure to sign their draft pick.  Here's a list of who failed to sign and what pick the teams will be compensated with.

• Barret Loux, 2010 #6, Diamondbacks: Loux failed a physical and instead of taking a risk, the Diamondbacks chose to pass on signing the pitcher from Texas A&M and tak the #7 pick in the 2011 draft.  Loux will be granted unrestricted free agency as of September 1st.  
• Karsten Whitson, 2010 #9, Padres: Whitson was unable to come to terms with the Padres and instead will play baseball for the University of Florida starting this fall.  The Padres will receive the #10 pick in 2011.

• Dylan Covey, 2010 #14, Brewers: Similar to Loux, the Brewers discovered a medical condition, diabetes, during Covey's physical.  It's unclear exactly why contract negotiations broke down after this illumination, but many suspect Covey chose to attend San Diego University instead of going to Milwaukee so he could be closer to home and have family assistance dealing with the diagnosis.  The Brewers will receive the 15th pick in 2011. 
• Ryne Stanek: 2010 3rd round pick, Mariners: Stanek did not reach an agreement and will attend Arkansas.  The Mariners compensation pick will be in the third round, pick number to be determined.

When it comes to draft signings, a lot of emphasis is placed on how much money certain picks got and why.  With good reason, too - it can often explain why a draft pick went as high as he did or why another slid to the later rounds despite being a top talent.

However, another important indicator of a draft haul is the total amount of money a team spends on its draft class and its percentage above slot bonus.  The Red Sox, for one, did not hand out any extremely large contracts such as those given to Zach Lee of the Dodgers or Nick Castellanos of the Tigers, but spent the 3rd most money of any team in 2010, behind the Pirates and Nationals who each had a large chunk of their draft budget go to the #2 and #1 picks, respectively. 

Nick Castellanos got a record $3.45M signing bonus for a supplemental round pick from the Tigers

Similarly, the Yankees spent "only" $5.126M on their 2020 draft class, which would put them in the middle of the pack, but were 188% over slot value, good for fourth. 

The draft signing numbers are courtesy of Baseball America's Jim Callis who compiled the team numbers and plenty more.   For those of you who love to see the numbers behind baseball, especially as it pertains to money (like me), Jim's got a bunch of great charts to look at.

• Spending vs. Slots for the first 10 rounds
  
• Total draft bonus spending, 2008-2010
• Highest draft bonuses ever
• Largest contracts in draft history
• Highest bonuses by round, 2010

June 7th, 2010 should have been one of the most exciting days in the life of former Texas A&M pitcher Barret Loux.  After being selected with the #6 pick in the 2010 amateur draft, Loux likely had visions of seven figure signing bonuses dancing in his head.  After all, the player chosen before him, Drew Pomeranz, signed for $2.65M with the Indians and the player chosen after him, Matt Harvey, signed for $2.5M with the Mets.

Unfortunately for Loux, everything went south in the middle of July when he failed a physical given by the Arizona medical staff and it seemed all but certain that the Diamondbacks would decline to sign Loux and instead receive the 7th pick of the 2011 draft as compensation. 

The draftee signing deadline came and went this past Monday and Loux remained unsigned by the team that drafted him, marred by his failed physical.  Typically players do not sign because they either go to school (such as #14 pick, Dylan Covey) or want more money (such as #9 pick, Karsten Whitson).  Loux was in a very unique situation, having been unsigned for physical reasons.

The resulting situation was a tough one for Loux, who had no rights to negotiate with other teams while the Diamondbacks could sit back and take another pick next year and focus on signing their other draft picks.  However, everything changed for Loux yesterday when the Diamondbacks and Loux came to an agreement with the permission of the commissioners office to make Loux a free agent on September 1st, 2010, reports John Manuel of Baseball America.

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The dust has finally settled on Monday's draftee signing deadline and reactions are beginning filter out about what did teams did and why. 

It was an eventful signing day with #1 overall pick Bryce Harper either coming close to ($9.9M) or surpassing ($10.9M) Mark Teixeira's record for signing bonus by a position player ($10M) depending upon how you determine the value of the contract.  Harper's contract is structured as such where if he hits some reasonably attainable bonus clauses, the value could escalate above $10M, surpassing Teixeira's record. 

Beyond Harper and the large bonuses given out to many of the top picks, another big story was the large number of first round draft picks who did not sign with their team.  While the total of three may not seem very high, it is the most since the 1996 first round.  All three unsigned players were pitchers - Barret Loux (#6, Diamondbacks), Karsten Whitson (#9, San Diego) and Dylan Covey (#14, Milwaukee). 

Let's take a look at what people are saying:

• Keith Law of espn.com writes that the Harper deal was good for both sides (Insider subscription required).  Law also addresses the shock of the Zach Lee signing by the Dodgers and the curiosity behind Whitson's decision not to go to the Padres.  
• Baseball America's John Manuel covers many of the same topics as Law did in his signing breakdown as well as commenting on Nick Castellanos's record deal for a supplemental round pick with the Tigers.
• Nathan Rode of Baseball America provides a post-signing interview with Harper.  
• Keith Law gives his analysis of how each team fared at the signing deadline.  Broken down by league - AL and NL
• Jim Callis of Baseball America writes a sentence or two about the notable first round signings.

The 18th overall pick of the 2010 draft high schooler Kaleb Cowart has agreed to a $2.3M signing bonus with the Los Angeles Angels according to John Manuel of Baseball America.  The MLB slot recommendation for the 18th pick is approximately $1.4M, meaning Cowart received almost a $900K premium on his signing.

Cowart's deal is the second largest of the 2010 draft so far, trailing only the $2.75M signing bonus that Cal State Fullerton SS Christian Colon received from the Royals as the fourth pick of the draft.  However, certainly a number of other first round picks are expected to exceed both Cowart and Colon's signing bonus.

Along with excelling as a pitcher, Cowart played third base this past season as well and had a spectacular season at the plate: .654 with 11 home runs, 55 runs, 16 doubles, 59 RBIs and 36 stolen bases.  He was equally impressive as a pitcher: In 73 innings he allowed just 35 hits and 24 walks while striking out 116.  Manuel notes that most scouts prefer Cowart as a pitcher.

Following the lead of Luke Jackson, high school pitcher Tyrell Jenkins has agreed to a $1.3M signing bonus with the St. Louis Cardinals according to Jim Callis of Baseball America.  Jenkins's deal was well in excess of the $705,600 slot recommendation for the 50th overall pick of the 2010 draft.

Only Jackson's $1.557M deal is larger amongst the supplemental first round draft picks.  Roughly half of the first round picks who have signed to date have not received signing bonuses in excess of Jenkins $1.3M.

Callis describes Jenkins: "He has a loose, quick, whippy arm that can deliver fastballs up to 95 mph, and he has plenty of projection remaining in his 6-foot-4, 180-pound frame."

The Texas Rangers have agreed to terms with their supplemental first round draft pick, Luke Jackson, the 45th overall pick of the draft.  Jim Callis of Baseball America reports that Jackson's signing bonus is a whopping, $1.557M, well in excess of MLB's slot recommendation of $764,100. 

So far, Jackson's signing bonus has been surpassed by only four players at all - Christian Colon (#4), Delino DeShields Jr. (#8), Michael Choice (#10) and Chris Sale (#13) - and ties that of Jake Skole, the 15th overall pick.

Of Jackson, Callis writes "Jackson is an athletic 6-foot-2, 170-pound righthander with a fastball that sits at 90-94 mph and reaches 96."

We are just hours away from today's deadline to sign player selected in June's amateur draft and the rumors are starting to swirl about who will sign and for how much.  In the interim, a number of non-first round draft picks continue to sign for over market value.

As always, Jim Callis and Aaron Fitt from Baseball America leads the pack in breaking this news.

• Pepperdine RHP Cole Cook signed with the Indians for $299K.  As a fifth round pick, the 150th overall, the recommended slot bonus is $169,200.
• Florida State outfielder Tyler Holt, a 10th round pick by the Cleveland Indians, also agreed to a $500K signing bonus with the Indians ($350K over).

• The Marlins signed high school shortstop/catcher JT Realmuto to a $600K signing bonus.  Realmuto was the 104th pick of the draft in the third round, a slot bonus recommendation of $309,600.
• High school catcher Will Swanner, a 15th round pick by the Rockies, agreed to a $490K signing bonus, $340K in excess of the recommendation.  
• Jake DePew, a high school catcher and ninth round pick by the Rays, signed for $460K, $310K over the slot recommendation.
• Jared Lakind, a high school first baseman, agreed to a $400K signing bonus with the Pirates.  A 23rd round pick, Lakind's deal was $250K over slot recommendation.
• The Padres have signed high school outfielder Jose Dore to a $450K signing bonus, three times the slot recommendation for an eighth-round pick.  

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Players and teams agreeing to signing bonuses over the MLB slot recommendation is not something unusual for the first round, especially the top picks.  As of yet unsigned, guys like Bryce Harper, Jameson Taillon and Manny Machado seem certain to sign for more than the MLB slot recommendations for the first through third overall picks.

The constant among the top picks, however, is that they are all likely to sign in some fashion.  On the rare instances when they do not, teams are compensated for their failure to sign a first round pick with a similar first round pick the next year. 

How much will it take for the Orioles to sign Manny Machado?

Where above slot signings become more interesting is with later round picks.  Often players with signability questions - particularly high school players who can go to college and re-enter the draft at a later date - slide in the draft because if teams select the players after the first round and do not sign them, they are left with nothing.  On the flip side, if a team can sign a player with a later round pick, they have a draft steal, so to speak.

Over the past week, a number of later round picks have signed for well over their slot bonus.  Jim Callis of Baseball America reported the signings with more information on each player in his posts.

• The Red Sox have signed high schooler (and Boston Celtic center) Kendrick Perkins to a $628K signing bonus.  Perkins was a sixth-round selection.

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